Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 17th, 2022, 8:15pm EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Betting Odds: GB -3, 43.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: Amazon Prime
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (Sit, QB2), Malik Willis (Sit)
It’s clear that the Titans trust Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball. He had 36 passing attempts in Week 10 which is more than what Malik Willis had in his two starts combined. Even with those attempts, Tannehill only completed 53% of them for 255 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t enough to get him into the QB1 range. That was against the Broncos who have a very good pass defense, giving up the second-fewest points to quarterbacks at 10.11. This week Tannehill gets another tough defense in the Packers on a short week. The Packers are giving up the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks at 13.59. Tannehill has the experience to get the job done in a game that isn’t projected to be a high-scoring or lopsided affair. I’m not trusting him even though he can eke into QB2 range. With a tough matchup and a bad completion percentage, I’m looking at last week as an anomaly, as it’s the most volume that he has seen all season and still only his third game in QB2 range.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1), Dontrell Hilliard (Sit)
It makes me very happy writing about bell cow running backs. Derrick Henry has been that for the Titans year after year, and the 2022 season is no different. He has only one game under 15 carries and only three under 20. On top of that, he is averaging a solid 4.57 yards per carry and is currently the RB5 in PPR leagues. He had a down week against Denver in Week 10 but now gets the Packers who are giving up the 15th most points to the running back position at 23. You are starting this monster among running backs every single week. He has been an RB1 in five out of the nine games he has played. The team runs through him and he has shaken off any injury concerns lingering from last season. Dontrell Hilliard is a nonfactor unless they want to give Henry some rest.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Robert Woods (Sit), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit, FLEX), Treylon Burks (Sit), Austin Hooper (Sit)
What are we to do with the pass catchers for the Titans? There is a ton of excitement for rookie Treylon Burks who returned last week after missing the previous four games. He had some positive things like catching three of his six targets for 24 yards. What I don’t like is that he only played on 56% of the snaps which is in line with what he was playing before his injury. He was tied for second on the team in routes run at 29 which leads me to believe that they want to get him involved. He also lined up wide on 80% of his snaps, which would indicate he is going to be out there on most play sets going forward. This week though, he is a sit for me given that he will probably match up against Rasul Douglas who rates out at 71.7 in coverage by PFF.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played on 77% of the team’s snaps and had his career-best day with eight targets, catching five of them for 119 yards and two scores. He also ran 29 routes and seemed to be the hot hand against the Broncos. He now faces the Packers who are giving up the ninth fewest points to wide receivers. It’s a short week so perhaps the magic continues for him. He lined up 63.3% of the time in the slot which would draw coverage from Keisean Nixon who rates at 46.6 in coverage (PFF). It could be the best matchup the Titans have, so Westbrook-Ikhine can be put in as a FLEX play this week
Robert Woods unfortunately will draw coverage from Jaire Alexander who rates at 77.4 (PFF). Despite seeing seven targets last week, Woods only hauled in just two of them for 10 yards. He only has one touchdown on the year and hasn’t been fantasy relevant since Week 4. I would sit him this week, if not drop him outright. He would have to show me that he can not only command those targets but also make good on getting them and start posting consistent numbers to get back to being fantasy relevant.
Austin Hooper has been a letdown most of the fantasy season, only being in the TE2 range three times. He has seen an uptick in snaps over the past two weeks getting just over 60%. It’s not a good matchup with the Packers giving up the seventh fewest points to tight ends at 9.04. There are probably better options on waivers.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
It seems like every year the Packers start slow and everyone counts them out and then Aaron Rodgers comes out and makes a statement to the media and then backs it up on the field. We could be seeing that again this season. Rodgers led the Packers to a come-from-behind win against the Cowboys in Week 10, and he only had to throw the ball 20 times, with three of them going for touchdowns. Despite that great success, he was still outside of QB1 scoring range. It’s a range he has yet to hit this season. His best chance might come this week as he faces the Titans Thursday night. The Titans are giving up the fifth most points to quarterbacks at 19.18. It’s a prime-time game at home that always seems to get Rodgers amped up. I’m going to say Rodgers gets into the QB1 range this week as his receivers are starting to step up and get on the same page with the back-to-back MVP.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), A.J. Dillon (Sit, FLEX)
The Packer’s recent success might be because they have committed to running the ball more. Week 10 saw Aaron Jones get a season-high 24 carries along with playing 70% of the team’s snaps. He converted the usage to 138 yards and a touchdown, and it was only his second game of the season with a rushing touchdown. He has two games with receiving scores as well. He gets to go against the Titans who are giving up the ninth fewest points to running backs. It’s a hard matchup but the volume should still be there for Jones. He can be started as an RB2.
A.J. Dillon only played on 38% of the team’s Week 10 snaps, but he still got 13 carries which is the most he has seen since Week 4. Given the tougher matchup, I don’t think you can start Dillon. There were some hopes that he would get involved in the passing game but that hasn’t come true. With the wide receivers taking the step up, Dillon has only seen five targets over the past three games including zero last week. He is a sit even if he will be in the lower end of the FLEX range.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Allen Lazard (Start, WR2), Romeo Doubs (OUT), Christian Watson (Start, WR3), Robert Tonyan (Sit, TE2)
Welcome to the NFL, Christian Watson. If you haven’t heard, Watson had a massive day with three touchdowns on four catches and 107 yards. It was the performance we have been waiting for from Watson since the Packers drafted him. He has dealt with injuries all season and even tweaked his ankle in the game. Given it’s a short week, you will want to monitor practice reports but he’s likely to play. He was out there for 84% of the team’s snaps and got eight targets, so the low number of actual catches shouldn’t scare you off. He also ran 21 routes. He should be started as a WR3. He obviously won’t get three touchdowns again and he does have issues with drops but you have to ride the hot hand.
Allen Lazard led the teams in routes run with 23 and in snaps playing on 98%. He only saw four targets which was his lowest total since Week 2. The Titans are giving up the fourth most points to wide receivers at 40.05 so you can expect Lazard to get back to being the true one in this offense. You can start him as a WR2. The Titans offense struggles to score points and when they do, it’s a run-heavy offense, much like the Packers, which eats up a ton of clock. I expect long drives out of both teams which will limit the number of total passing attempts to go around.
With Romeo Doubs still out on IR, you might think you can start Sammy Watkins or Samori Toure but you shouldn’t. You probably can’t start tight end Robert Tonyan either. The Titans are giving up the thirteenth most points to tight ends at 12.82. He played 64% of the team’s Week 10 snaps, above his norm of 50%, as he was more involved because the team fell behind against the Cowboys and that is not the game script we expect against the Titans. Sit Tonyan as a TE2.