Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 20th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds: BUF -8.5, 43 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett (Sit)
The time for looking over his shoulder has finally arrived for Jacoby Brissett. Deshaun Watson has been cleared to begin practicing with the Browns but won’t be able to play in any games until Week 13. Brissett has been mostly mediocre this season with no games over 278 yards and only one game with more than one passing TD (he does have two rushing TDs on the season). Brissett has led the Browns to a 3-6 record and finds himself on the wrong side of an 8.5-point spread. Adding to his woes this week is Buffalo’s defense which ranks 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (1,892) and is tied for 2nd lowest in passing TDs allowed (9). It all adds up to another week on fantasy benches for Brissett in Week 11.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (Start, RB1), Kareem Hunt (Sit, low-end FLEX)
Nick Chubb is putting together another fantastic year as he sits 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards with 904 and leads the league in rushing TDs with 11. The biggest concern for fantasy managers with Chubb on their roster is the potential game script. In games in which Cleveland has kept the score close or won outright, Chubb averages 18 carries, 100 yards, and 1.4 TDs. In blowout losses, Chubb averages 11 carries and 60 yards. Buffalo this season has shown a propensity for building big leads and cruising to victory, which could suppress Chubb’s numbers enough to keep him on the low end of the RB1 tier this week. Buffalo has struggled to curtail RBs the last three weeks, surrendering an average of 157 yards and one TD per game over that span, so recent history suggests Chubb should still be able to churn out an RB1 finish. Fantasy managers should feel confident Chubb will provide an RB1 return this week, albeit possibly on the lower end depending on how the first half of the game goes.
It’s been a bit of a surprising downturn for Kareem Hunt this season as the six-year veteran is in the midst of his worst statistical season. Hunt is averaging just 3.8 yards per rushing attempt (his career average is 4.5) and is at 6.4 yards per reception (career average of 8.8). Hunt hasn’t seen a decrease in usage compared to 2021, during which he was a viable weekly play alongside Chubb; he’s just not been as efficient with his touches. Hunt is also not producing as much as a receiver this season in blowouts as there is virtually no difference in his stats in those games as opposed to others. As long as Chubb is healthy, Hunt is no more than a handcuff with upside for fantasy managers. He can’t be trusted to start as anything more than a desperation FLEX in Week 11.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Sit, low-end FLEX), David Bell (Sit), David Njoku (Sit), Harrison Bryant (Sit)
I was surprised to see just how efficient Amari Cooper has been this season when I began researching this game. Despite garnering just 69 targets (26th in the NFL) and 42 receptions (tied for 34th in the NFL), Cooper has 585 yards (18th in the NFL) and five TDs (tied for 9th in the NFL). Cooper is the clear #1 WR for Cleveland as he leads the team in all statistical receiving categories and is Brissett’s first read on most plays. Buffalo has been known to give up big games to WRs this season, surrendering 90+ yards to five WRs and seven TDs to the position this season. Cleveland will likely be throwing late to try and stay in the game, so some garbage-time stats aren’t out of the question. Look for Cooper to continue his run of startable fantasy performances and finish as a WR2 for fantasy managers this week.
For the first time in his career, Donovan Peoples-Jones is seeing action in every game of the season. Peoples-Jones has emerged as the #2 WR for Cleveland after two years of sporadic appearances and minimal production. Peoples-Jones is going to set career highs across the board, assuming he stays healthy and has seen at least four targets in each of Cleveland’s last six games. Despite not finding the end zone yet this season, Peoples-Jones had his best game of the season last week and Brissett is comfortable throwing to him in critical situations. Unfortunately, DPJ isn’t seeing quite enough volume regularly to trust him in fantasy lineups fully just yet and his lack of TDs gives us enough ammunition to only consider him a low-end FLEX option this week for fantasy managers.
Cleveland has a few guys who rotate among the third WR spot, but David Bell has been the preferred option for most of the season. He hasn’t been presented with many opportunities, however, given that Cleveland is 26th in the NFL in passing play percentage at 51.67% and the majority of the targets are centered around Cooper and Peoples-Jones. Bell saw five targets last week in the blowout loss, but that was his season high as he typically sees only one or two targets per game. Unless injuries strike the depth chart above him, Bell is not worth the investment for fantasy managers and safely be benched in Week 11.
As of this writing, it is still unknown whether or not David Njoku will be recovered enough from the ankle injury he sustained in Week 7 to suit up for Cleveland this week. Harrison Bryant has been the TE1 in his stead but has not been very productive in the increased role. Bryant put up 15 yards and a TD last week after not seeing a target in his last game out. Njoku has been productive when on the field, averaging 60 receiving yards per game, but it’s hard to expect a solid performance when returning from an ankle injury. If Njoku fully practices this week and you’re desperate for TE help after the injuries to Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert last week, perhaps he can provide enough production to consider as a starter, but don’t expect anything other than TE2 production. If Njoku is out, Bryant is too TD-dependent to trust this week and I’d look elsewhere for TE help in Week 11.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Not much more can be said about Josh Allen as a fantasy QB. Even in his worst game from a passing perspective this season, Week 9 against the Jets when he had 205 yards and two INTs with no passing TDs, he rushed for 86 yards and two TDs to salvage his fantasy day. Allen is averaging more passing yards per game this season (303.7) than in any of his previous seasons and still operated as one of Buffalo’s primary rushing weapons. His weekly upside is overall QB1 and this week is no exception. Start him and rest easy.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), James Cook (Sit)
The Bills have established a clear pecking order at the RB position and Devin Singletary sits atop the heap. Singletary has commanded at least 70% of the RB snaps in six of Buffalo’s nine games and secured his first two rushing TDs of the year last week. Singletary is also facing off against the 12th-worst run defense in the league this week as Cleveland has allowed 1,180 rushing yards this season and only the Bears have allowed more than Cleveland’s 15 rushing TDs. Vegas thinks Buffalo will cruise to victory in this one, which could lead to some late-game stat stuffing from Singletary as well. Considering all these factors, Singletary has a path to solid RB2 production in Week 11 for fantasy managers.
The writing seemed to be on the wall for Singletary when Buffalo selected James Cook, Dalvin’s brother, in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Singletary has held off the rookie this season and Cook is the second RB on the field for Buffalo. Cook has yet to see more than 18 snaps in a game, and that came way back in Week 2. The former Bulldog has flashed ability when given the chance to the tune of 5.1 yards per attempt but he’s simply not seeing enough attempts to warrant serious fantasy consideration. Cook is a fine hold in dynasty or keeper leagues and is not bad bench depth this season because of the high-powered offense he’s on, but he is no more than bench depth this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, low-end WR2), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit), Khalil Shakir (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit, high-end TE2)
If you’re reading this, you know Stefon Diggs is the clear alpha WR for the Bills, but I didn’t realize how far above the others he is. For the season, Diggs has 99 targets which is more than double the next closest WR and his 985 receiving yards are more than 400 yards clear of everybody else. Diggs currently sits 3rd in the NFL in both receiving yards and TDs (8) and is on pace to obliterate his career highs in all statistical categories. If you’ve made it this far, congratulations. Your prize is potentially the overall WR1 this week and you get to start him, but you didn’t need to be told that, did you?
Lining up opposite Diggs on nearly every play is Gabe Davis. Davis is second on the team with 47 targets, 544 yards, and five TDs. While not seeing nearly the volume Diggs does, Davis has been productive with his opportunities as he leads the team in yards per reception with 22.7 and catches a TD on 21% of his receptions. While the TD percentage is not sustainable, weekly fantasy production might be because of how much Buffalo utilizes the passing attack. Buffalo sits 9th in the NFL in passing percentage at 62.24% and Davis has finished as a top-24 WR in half of his games played. I expect Davis to find his way into that same range this week, but maybe on the lower end of the spectrum.
The “other” WRs for Buffalo primarily are Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir who rotate in the slot. McKenzie is the preferred option, seeing about three times the number of snaps as Shakir, but the veteran hasn’t shown the same game-breaking explosiveness Shakir has. Despite the high volume of passes Allen throws, once you get past Diggs and Davis there just isn’t a lot left over. McKenzie looked like he might become a weekly option after two good games in Weeks 3 and 4, but hasn’t been able to reproduce those numbers since. Shakir doesn’t see enough snaps to be a consistent fantasy producer. Neither player is a very enticing option this week, but McKenzie has shown the ability to crack the starting lineup in the past. I wouldn’t advise starting either this week, but injuries and BYEs have a way of forcing fantasy managers into uncomfortable lineup decisions from time to time.
It’s been a bit of a frustrating season for fantasy managers who have Dawson Knox on their roster after his breakout 2021 season. nox had his season-high in receiving yards last week with 57, which shows just how much of a struggle it’s been for Knox this season. He has always been a TD-dependent fantasy option, which in this strong offense isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Knox does have two TDs on the season and is probably the team’s best red-zone receiving threat because of his size. Are there worse options out there at the position? Absolutely, but there are better options out there as well. It’s not a death sentence if you have to run Knox out there this week as your starting TE, but don’t expect much more than TE2 production without a TD.