Kickoff: Sunday, December 13th at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Betting Odds: GB -8, 55 total via Oddsshark
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
The current QB4 on the season, Aaron Rodgers, is having an MVP-caliber year. He’s scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his past seven games. The Lions are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, so Rodgers should be an easy start again this week. Start “AR-12” with confidence.
Aaron Jones (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Sit, Flex consideration in deeper leagues)
Aaron Jones turned in his second-best fantasy performance of the season last week and capped it off with a 77-yard touchdown run. This week’s match-up should be fantastic for the first week of fantasy playoffs. The Lions are currently allowing more fantasy points to running backs than any other team in the league. Jones is a must-start this week and should be reliable for RB1 production this week.
I said Jamaal Williams would likely be a risky flex for the rest of the season, and it seems he proved me right last week when Williams had his worst fantasy performance since Week 6. Jamaal is still a key part of this offense and should have some flex appeal in deeper leagues, but his production will be nearly impossible to predict from week to week. I recommend looking to someone more reliable if you’ve found yourself in the fantasy playoffs this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Allen Lazard (Sit), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Start, TE1)
I mean, where do I even begin with Davante Adams? The guy has been unstoppable lately. Adams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his past seven games and has averaged 1.5 touchdowns per game over that same stretch. He’s already surpassed 1,000 receiving yards with only 10 games under his belt this season. The Lions are allowing the seventh-most points to fantasy wide receivers this year. Fire up Adams with confidence.
Allen Lazard has been eased back into the Green Bay offense after returning from injury a few weeks ago. Lazard saw the field for roughly 20% more snaps from Week 12 to 13, which is encouraging, but still hasn’t been very fantasy-relevant since his return. Lazard may have a breakout performance against a Lions’ secondary that’s allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game, but I’m certainly not trusting him in the fantasy playoffs.
Ever since a slight injury to his Achilles a few weeks ago, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been active but completely worthless for fantasy purposes. He has zero catches and only two targets over his past two games. Fantasy managers were already aware of Valdes-Scantling’s “boom or bust” nature. Unfortunately, his complete lack of any fantasy production over the last two weeks should scare away even the riskiest managers.
With three straight TE1 performances and a touchdown three weeks in a row, it’s looking like Robert Tonyan should be a consistent fantasy option for the rest of the season. The Lions are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year but are also giving up plenty of passing yards per game. The match-up is pretty mediocre, but not enough to downgrade a player like Tonyan. I believe he should be capable of another TE1 performance this week.
Matthew Stafford (Sit, Low-end QB2)
Yes, Matthew Stafford torched the Bears last week and had his best fantasy performance of the season, but I think it’s important to remember that was an outlier. Stafford threw for over 400 yards last week but has only thrown for more than 300 yards twice this year. He scored 26 fantasy points last week but has only achieved a 20+ point performance four times this year. The Packers have been quite good against fantasy quarterbacks, allowing the eighth-fewest points to the position in 2020. I would look elsewhere for a more reliable fantasy option, especially for those fantasy managers lucky enough to be in the playoffs this week.
Adrian Peterson (Start-able if Swift inactive, Flex with RB2 upside), D’Andre Swift (Start if active, High-end RB2), Kerryon Johnson (Sit)
D’Andre Swift was inactive again last week with an illness, leaving Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson as the lead backs in Detroit. Swift has been inactive for the past three weeks, so it’s anyone’s guess as to when he may return. Fantasy managers will need to keep an eye on his practice status this week if they want Swift in their starting lineups. Assuming he’s good to go, Swift should be a high-end RB2 against the Packers, a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
If Swift is inactive yet again, Adrian Peterson will likely be the most fantasy-relevant back in Detroit, but Johnson should still be in the mix. AP has commanded most of the backfield work in Swift’s absence and has achieved RB1 status for the past two weeks, but one could argue his recent production has been a bit of an anomaly. AP has averaged 17.6 fantasy points and two touchdowns per game for the past two weeks. If he didn’t have four touchdowns in two weeks, AP would likely not even be in the fantasy conversation right now. If Swift is inactive, Peterson will realistically be more of a Flex option with RB2 upside this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marvin Jones Jr. (Sit, Low-end Flex), Kenny Golladay (Tough trust if active, Low-end WR2), T.J. Hockenson (Start, Low-end TE1)
Marvin Jones Jr. had his best fantasy performance of the season in last week’s comeback game, but his “boom” performances will be a challenge to predict this year. He’s been all over the place, scoring 20+ fantasy points twice, double-digits five times, and single-digit points in another five games this year. The good news is that Jones Jr. is averaging 10 targets per game over the past month. The bad news is the Packers are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. All these factors put Marvin in the low-end Flex tier for me this week.
With Kenny Golladay inactive since Week 9, Jones Jr. has been the only fantasy-relevant receiver on this team. As far as I know, there has not been any new information about Golladay’s potential return this week. Fantasy managers will need to monitor the Lions’ injury reports if they plan on starting Golladay this week, but he would still be tough to trust in his first game back since early November. The last thing managers need in the fantasy playoffs is a starting wide receiver on a pitch count.
T.J. Hockenson has been a consistent TE1 option for most of the 2020 season and has been doing pretty well over his past couple of games. T.J. has reached TE1 status over the past two weeks (without touchdowns) and is averaging eight targets per game over his past three. This week’s match-up is pretty bad; the Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest points to the tight end position this year. Still, dependable fantasy tight ends have been tough to come by in 2020, and the match-up isn’t enough to warrant a considerable downgrade to Hockenson. I believe he should still be capable of a low-end TE1 performance this week.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse)