Kickoff: Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Betting Odds: TEN -7.5, 53 Total via Oddsshark
Ryan Tannehill (Start, QB1)
Coming off of a mind-blowing performance by Baker Mayfield in the first half last week and a full catch up mode game by the Titans, Ryan Tannehill was the biggest benefactor of such a scenario. Will we see that this week? Well, that is doubtful as the Jags are terrible and this is shaping up to be a Derrick Henry game through and through, but Tannehill should still be serviceable enough to get multiple touchdowns with no turnovers if I had to guess. There will be fewer plays overall this game as the primary source of offense for both of these teams is to focus on the running back and getting them 20+ touches, but that doesn’t mean that Tannehill isn’t a QB1 in a dream matchup.
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1)
Already over 1,300 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, Derrick Henry seems poised to challenge for the rushing title yet again. He did, however, struggle somewhat against the Jags in his last meeting, only averaging 3.4 YPC which clocks in much lower than his outstanding 4.9 YPC on the season. The Jags are arguably worse now than they were then and have their eyes on a quarterback regardless which means losing is better. Look for Henry to get his back over the century mark as he was for three straight games before last week’s catchup mode game. He is a no-brainer RB1 for the first round of the playoffs.
AJ Brown (Start, WR1), Corey Davis (Start, Flex), Jonnu Smith (TE1)
How many times have we had a big game from Corey Davis early in the season, get hyped up, only to drop him a week later as a mirage? Well, this year was different, hooray! After having 8/101 in Week 1, Davis has mostly maintained his production for the entirety of the season, only going below 67 yards or a touchdown in one game this season. He is actually pacing the position group for the Titans right now. Coming off 12 targets and 11/182/1, look for Davis to be targeted often by Tannehill yet again. AJ Brown is the focal point of this passing offense, even with being in second place in the yardage totals for the time being on the team. This is especially true when the team needs someone to get in the end zone as he has found the end zone in all but two games this season. The guide to “how to tackle Derrick Henry” on Tik Tok has shown grit and toughness himself as one of the harder to tackle wide receivers in the NFL. He has been and will continue to be a WR1 moving forward. Jonnu Smith is seemingly on track to play this week, but keep an eye out as he missed last week but got in a limited session already this week. With the news that Adam Humphries is on IR with a concussion, this should open up Smith to be the third option in the passing game assuming health and with the lack of production in fantasy this year, he should slot in as a TE1.
Mike Glennon (Sit)
Mike Glennon has been good, not great, since taking over the job in Jacksonville. He actually has a good matchup against the Titans, but this offense is completely relying on James Robinson to carry them to the sucky finish line of this season. With almost nothing to play for, but still losing only by a few points every week recently, Glennon will probably be good, not great, again and you don’t want that lack of upside or floor as your quarterback in the first round of the playoffs. Leave him be.
James Robinson (Start, RB1)
Averaging just over 24 touches per game, James Robinson is reminding us of the MJD days in Jacksonville. Those who lucked into Robinson this year are probably reading this because you are in the playoffs. Free pickups that turn into top-end talent only solidify an already good team, basically giving you two first or second-round picks for the price of one. With that being said, Robinson will continue to see his wildly impressive opportunity share after seeing 18, 22, and 17 carries in his last three games respectively. Robinson has eclipsed 1,200 total yards and 9 total touchdowns already this year with 42 catches…AS A FREE AGENT. You can only dream of such a scenario. Keep riding the wave. Yes, he is questionable, but there is nothing to come out that suggest it is more than a technicality.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
DJ Chark (Start in 14+ team formats, Flex), Laviska Shenault (Sit, Questionable), Keelan Cole (Sit)
DJ Chark has not been worthy of a flex tag if I am being honest, but he is still getting good target share and has the talent to perform. If you are in a 14+ team league, I am okay with you starting him, but anything lower than that and it is hard for me to believe you don’t have a better upside guy available to play because Chark has a floor of single digits, which he has hit more times this year than he has seen double digits. Laviska Shenault had a decent week last week by catching his first touchdown since Week 1 last week, but he is way off the radar for playoff teams. The same can be said for Keelan Cole who has more single-digit games than Chark. Everyone on this team not named James Robinson is a fade in the playoffs is anything but the deepest leagues.
-Matt Dean (@MattDeanQBList on Twitter, mdean8 on Reddit)