Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 1st, 2023 1:00pm EST
Location: Raymon James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Betting Odds: TB -3, 39.5 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Dustin Ludke (Twitter: theDunit13)
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (Sit)
Sam Darnold has been efficient since taking back his starting job in Carolina. Over the past four games, he has yet to turn the ball over. He has a passing touchdown in each game and added a score on the ground this past week. The issue is that the Panthers are a run-heavy team. Darnold has yet to have over 25 attempts in a game. He just got to the 250-yard mark this past week but hasn’t been close to that in the previous three games. He now faces the Buccaneers, who are giving up the nineteenth most points to quarterbacks at 15.66. It’s a decent matchup for Darnold in a must-win game to keep the Panthers’ playoff hopes alive. The issue is the low volume makes it hard to trust him to produce a week-winning game. Sit him this week.
Running Backs
D’onta Foreman (Start, RB2), Chubba Hubbard (Start, Flex)
Surprisingly, after trading away Christian McCaffery, the Panthers seem to have become a more run-heavy team. Leading the way is D’Onta Foreman. Foreman is only playing on under 50% of the team’s snaps, but in two of the past three games since coming back from the bye has had over 20 carries. He is averaging 4.56 yards per carry and made Raheem Blackshear a nonfactor. He has to face the tough Tampa defense that is giving up the fifth-fewest points to running backs at 19.37. It’s a tough matchup and Foreman is also splitting time with Chubba Hubbard. In the last game while only playing on 46% of the team’s snaps Hubbard got twelve carries and racked up 125 yards. It’s a potent duo that is getting volume. It’s a tough matchup that will leave Foreman in the RB2 category and probably slide Hubbard into the Flex range.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
D.J. Moore (Start, WR2), Terrace Marshall (Sit), Laviska Shenault (Sit), Ian Thomas (Sit), Tommy Tremble (Sit)
D.J. Moore has broken through his four touchdowns per season career ceiling, but it looks like he will fail to reach the 1000-yard mark. Moore has been playing on over 95% of the team’s snaps and leads the team in targets almost every week. He hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 8, which was the last time the Panthers faced Tampa. He ended that game with six receptions, 152 yards and a score. He will be facing coverage from Sean Murphy-Bunting who rates at 69.1 in coverage. It’s a tough matchup for Moore, but with Darnold back under center, his production should remain constant. He can be trusted as a WR2 this week.
Terrace Marshall has stepped into the second receiver role much to the delight of his dynasty owners. He has been playing on over 80% of the team’s snaps, but hasn’t seen more than five targets since Week 11 and has only seen that level of opportunities three times this season. He will be covered by Carlton Davis who rates at 64.0 in coverage. It’s a tough coverage matchup, and combined with low opportunities, it makes it hard to trust Marshall. I would sit him this week.
Shi Smith left last week’s game with a foot injury and we’re awaiting the results of the MRI, but I believe he will either be out or limited this week. That opens up more opportunities for Laviska Shenault. He is only playing on under 30% of snaps and hasn’t seen over four targets since coming over to Carolina. He has seen a carry or two in each game. It’s a work in progress, so you can’t trust him right now. Not to mention he would see a lot of Antonio Winfield Jr who rates at 69.6
Tommy Tremble has become the lead pass-catching tight end for the Panthers despite playing fewer snaps than Ian Thomas. Trembled played 57% and Thomas played 63%. Tremble ran more routes than Thomas with thirteen to six. It’s still very low volume for fantasy tight end. Tamps is giving up the tenth most points to tight ends, but neither Tremble nor Thomas can be trusted to put up anything other than low-end TE2 numbers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start, QB2)
Tom Brady isn’t as good as he once was, but for the last few drives of a game, he can be as good as he ever was and win games. He has the Buccaneers in a win and in game against the Panthers this week. Over the past five weeks since the bye, he had three multi-touchdown games and has only one game under 250 yards. He hasn’t had any massive games which have capped his upside. He hasn’t gotten into QB1 range at all this season. He now faces the Panthers who are giving up the twelfth most points to quarterbacks at 16.49. In their previous matchup, Brady had 49 passing attempts and had 32 completions, and 290 yards. He failed to get the ball into the end zone but that was back in Week 7. You can start Brady as a higher-end QB2 this week. He has been playing better as of late and it’s hard to bet against him in must-win games.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, Flex), Leonard Fournette (Start, RB2)
Everyone thought that Rachaad White had completely taken over the starting job from Leonard Fournette. After two weeks of having more carries the Fournette, White took a backseat this past week. Fournette this past week played on 60% of the team’s snaps and saw 20 carries on top of 10 targets. It was a massive opportunity for the six-year vet. He finished with 72 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards. It easily got him into the RB1 range without scoring a touchdown. White had seven carries and four targets while only playing 36% of the team’s snaps. He did catch a touchdown which helped his fantasy day. The Panthers are giving up the nineteenth-most points to running backs at 22.1. The question is who will be the guy? I think both have room for opportunities in this game. I have Fournette ahead based on the number of snaps he saw last week and even in the previous weeks he wasn’t that far behind White in carries. You can trust Fournette as a solid RB2 this week. White should be a solid flex player who can outperform that if he gets in the end zone again.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Godwin (Start, WR1), Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Julio Jones (Sit, FLEX), Russell Gage (Start, Flex), Cade Otton (Sit)
It’s been a frustrating season for Mike Evans. He only has three touchdowns on the season which is a far cry from the 14 he had last season. He is still playing his normal number of snaps which is over 85%. He is getting targets. He only has three games under five targets this season. He is on pace for over 1000 yards. He just hasn’t scored. This week against the Panthers he will probably see coverage from Keith Taylor who rates at 57.1. It’s a great matchup for Evans who should continue to be a focal point for Brady and the Bucs’ offense. You can start him as a solid WR2.
Chris Godwin also only has three touchdowns this season, but missed time early in the season, and his three have come in the past six games. He is playing on close to 90% of snaps every week. He has more targets on the season the Evans despite playing one less game. Both Godwin and Evans ran over 40 routes this past week, and Godwin saw the most targets with ten. Godwin will probably see coverage from Jeremy Chin who rates low at 49.5. Godwin has been lining up in the slot on 63% of his snaps last week. He has been able to take advantage of the lesser coverage and receive a ton of opportunities. You can start him as a WR1 this week.
Julio Jones was questionable this past week with a knee injury, and it showed with him only playing on 27% of the team’s snaps and catching only one pass for five yards. The hope is that he can be more involved this week. With him being limited Russell Gage has had the opportunity to step up. He has had 18 targets over the past two weeks and has over 50 yards in each game. He scored twice in Week 15. Whoever lines up on the outside opposite Evans will see coverage from C.J. Henderson who rates at 50.2 which is 104th out of 116 corners. The Panthers as a whole are giving up the fifth most points to wide receivers at 36.41. I’m going to wait on Julio and sit him this week, but think Gage is a sneaky flex play this week.
Cade Otton was third on the team in routes run with 40 this past week. He is playing on a high number of snaps usually above the 50% threshold. He got seven targets but only caught two of them for 12 yards. The Panthers are giving up the twelfth fewest points to tight ends, so it’s not a great matchup for Otton. He hasn’t seemed to have the trust of Brady just yet but is working that way. With the great receiver options, he just falls down the pecking order in terms of reads for Brady. Sit him this week.