Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan 1, 4:05 eastern
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle WA
Betting Odds: NYJ -1.5 42.5 per Caesar’s sportsbook
Network: FOX
Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)
New York Jets
Quarterback
Mike White (Start, QB2)
Cleared from concussion protocol on Monday, Mike White is set to take the snaps under center for the Jets this weekend. He has put up over 19 points in two of his three starts this season with the final one being a dud at Buffalo for ten points. Seattle is middle of the pack in overall pass defense and bottom ten in the league in pass pressure with blitzes, hurries, and overall pressure. It’s worth a caveat to note they have been generous in fantasy points scored against them for quarterbacks, but they’ve also just come off back-to-back games facing the 49ers and then the Chiefs. As for the Jets’ passing attack, White has thrown the ball over 300 yards twice and was 30 yards short of a third time against the Bills. I do like having all of his starting receivers healthy, I don’t like it being a road game in Seattle. I think when the dust settles we are looking at high-end QB2.
Running Backs
Zonovan Knight (Start, RB2)
Spell check loves the name Zonovan Knight, and so do I this week against this Seahawk run defense. His last two games have been awful, but in the three before that, he put up double-digit fantasy points in each one of those games (including at the Bills). It is worth noting in those three games he had White as his quarterback before the most recent two duds in which he had Wilson under center. Seattle’s run defense is bottom-five in rushing yards, first-downs, and touchdowns allowed. In their last five games since the bye week, they are averaging giving up 150 yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and over 30 fantasy points per game to running backs. In his three games with White under center, Knight was averaging 5.0 yards per carry with 46 carries for 230 yards. If this trend continues, I think this adds up to roughly a high-end RB2 performance.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR2), Corey Davis (Start, Flex), Elijah Moore (Start, WR3), Tyler Conklin (Start, TE2)
Lately, the Seahawk defense has looked good statistically against the wide receiver, but that’s because they gave up a bunch of those fantasy points to George Kittle and Travis Kelce at the tight end position instead. I think the young receiving corps for the Jets should be able to hold their own this weekend. The Seahawks are giving up the third-most yards after the catch in the league. There’s not a lot of work to review this season on play call tendencies inside the opponent’s 5-10 yard line when White is under center to see if they like to run first or pass first into the end zone. Right now, they seem to prefer to kick field goals (sorry Jets fans) so we will see. So for that, I write my guess at their tier as is without the thought of touchdowns changing the equation. Looking back in their last five games, I did not find a slot receiver exploding against the Seahawks and Corey Davis’s usage is already shaky whether it be up and down targets from week to week (including the three White starts) or injury.
I am very hesitant to recommend benching a tight end in today’s fantasy landscape, but I am not expecting a lot from Tyler Conklin. This is a complete touchdown dice roll to me. I like his matchup but I don’t like his stats on the season.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (Start, QB2)
The Jets come into this matchup top 10 in quarterback pressure and top-five in quarterback knockdowns while giving up the 4th fewest air yards per pass. Geno Smith had been a rock of fantasy consistency until the last two weeks when Seattle has begun to slide of late. He had been on a streak of 20+ fantasy point games but in the last two games, he has failed to get 16 fantasy points. A team that gets to the quarterback like New York is going to have Smith either scrambling or looking to get the ball out fast. I think we will see the third week in a row of mediocre passing yards, around the 230 mark, and enough to put him in the low to mid QB2 range. Especially considering the Jets have not allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards once this season (closest Joe Burrow, 275). They have also not given up more than a single passing touchdown since Week 3! (Also Burrow)
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III (Start, RB2)
I have been a big Kenneth Walker fan all season and I was glad to see him return to his double-digit fantasy point ways after coming back from the injury. However, I am tempering my expectations a bit in this game as the Jets are allowing the 4th-fewest yards per attempt on the season. I do still think he will have a solid floor to work with coming off his 26-carry performance on 53% of the snap share against the Chiefs. Since Week 4, Walker only has one game where he did not score double-digit fantasy points and that was the game he went down in before missing the next week. Now for the downside, he hasn’t scored 18+ fantasy points since Week 9 and this Jets team has been a tough cookie for running backs to crumble. New York has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since week 5 (Raheem Mostert). The last time they allowed a rushing touchdown was in Week 13 against the Vikings and before that was Week 7 against the Broncos.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
DK Metcalf (Start, WR2), Tyler Lockett (Sit/Start, WR3), Marquise Goodwin (Sit), Noah Fant (Start, TE1)
A Jets defense that’s stingy on air yards but not ranked highly on the average depth of target speaks to the talent of the secondary. Even with the daunting matchup, DK Metcalf has been a rock in PPR since Week 7 where he went down (and missed no time thanks to wolverine blood) so I will not shy away from him now. I will be hesitant about Tyler Lockett who missed last week and is already missing practice this week so that will be something to keep an eye on. He had also had an eight-week stretch of double-digit fantasy points before going down. If he can go, I like him to hover around high WR3, and low WR2. Looking back through their games the only receiver to pop off coming out of the slot was Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions, everyone else seemed very much contained. Taking that into consideration combined with Marquise Goodwin’s injured wrist I’m going to be low on him. While he did return to the game after the injury last week, he still had zero catches and so far has not practiced this week.
Noah Fant is going to be the main man after Will Dissley hit injured reserve and I like his touchdowns in three out of the last four games for sure. Just don’t assume he will see 100% snap share now, they will still bring in the next man up and have already signed someone to the practice squad to fill in for that guy as well.