Kickoff: Sunday, January 3rd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds: MIA +1.5, 43.5 total via Oddsshark
Tua Tagovailoa (Sit)
Tua Tagovailoa has quietly looked a lot like Josh Rosen the last few weeks. His stat line of 17/22 for 94 passing yards in Week 16 is efficient but useless for fantasy purposes, not to mention the fact that he’s been getting pulled for Ryan Fitzpatrick anytime it looks like the Dolphins are going to lose the game. In a must-win game against a solid Bills defense, Miami will likely rely on their recent strength (the running game) since the Bills have struggled more against that phase of the game. Expecting Tua to put up the numbers he did against Kansas City just because it’s a must-win game isn’t a winning formula, so I would steer clear of him this week.
Myles Gaskin (Start, RB2), Salvon Ahmed (Sit)
After returning from his three-week hiatus, Myles Gaskin returned with a bang on Saturday night with a 28.9 point performance that solidified his role as the RB1 on this team. Even with Salvon Ahmed, who filled in admirably in Gaskin’s absence, suiting up, Gaskin stole the show. His big play in the Raiders game was a 59-yard catch and run where he made multiple defenders miss, and that’s where a lot of his fantasy value should come from in this one. In his last three games (Week 8, Week 13, and Week 16), Gaskin has 10 receptions on 13 targets. That’s not unique to Gaskin, either. In their time as the starting RB, both Ahmed and DeAndre Washington also saw plenty of targets, so this is an integral part of Miami’s offense. Gaskin is a solid RB2 this week and should be started pretty much everywhere.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Start, Flex), Jakeem Grant Sr. (Sit), Malcolm Perry (Sit), Mack Hollins (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start, TE2)
Last week’s leading receiver, Jakeem Grant, will miss Week 17 with a high ankle sprain, but there is a chance they will get DeVante Parker back. Parker practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday and there is optimism that he will be able to play despite a lingering hamstring injury. If he’s in there, expect him to be shadowed by Levi Wallace, who held Parker to 53 yards and a touchdown on five catches in Week 2. His upside will be limited as long as Tua is under center, but if he does play he should at least return Flex value along with some WR2 upside.
Mike Gesicki has averaged eight targets in his last three games played, and he did have a huge game against Buffalo in Week 2. That did come with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, though, so the offense is structured a bit differently this time around. But Gesicki has shown in recent weeks that he’s a chain mover and a valuable part of this offense. He’s a TE2 with TE1 upside this week.
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen showed on Monday night that even against a defense that has given him fits in the past, he can rip them to shreds in 2020. Having already locked up an AFC East title, the Bills are only playing for the #2 seed at this point. They could potentially lose it with a loss and a Steelers win, so I’m guessing Allen will at least start the game and play for most of the first half. Head Coach Sean McDermott says he “has a plan” but has not yet discussed it with their players. This makes Allen a risky play for fantasy purposes. Personally, I would rather go with a guy like Philip Rivers who will be playing the entire game against Jacksonville, but Allen could easily throw for 2-3 TDs in the first half and call it good. It’s a risk that may be worth taking, and I wouldn’t blame you if you did.
Zack Moss (Start, Flex), Devin Singletary (Start, Flex)
I don’t want to say that Buffalo has been one dimensional this season, but they’re certainly a better passing team than running team. That’s not to say that they don’t have talented backs, because both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are certainly playmakers, but there’s still a question of whether or not they be relied upon to eat up clock and dominate a game if Allen and company can’t move it through the air. This game could go a long way to proving that, especially in a game where Allen and Diggs could potentially get pulled early. Don’t forget that Miami is fighting for their playoff lives, so they will be doing all they can to stop this Bills offense. It’s a good test for Moss and Singletary, and I expect Buffalo will want them to treat this like a playoff game. That should give each of them just enough Flex value to be worth playing in Week 17.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, Flex), Cole Beasley (Sit), Gabriel Davis (Start, Flex), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit), Tyler Kroft (Sit)
Cole Beasley is considered week-to-week after sustaining a leg injury in Monday night’s game in New England, so there’s no chance he plays this week. I imagine they’ll be wary to let Stefon Diggs play too deeply into this game, so you may only see him for the first half or so. It’s hard to bench him after his performance against New England, and he showed in that game exactly what he’s capable of in a half of football. I’d still consider him as a Flex option with a 15 point upside.
The guy I do want to start in this game is Gabriel Davis. He has been touchdown-dependent all season, but with Beasley out, someone has to step up and see more targets. He has flashed at times and this could be a “prove it” game to see if he can be relied upon against a playoff defense. He’s $3,600 on Draftkings and that could end up being a heck of a bargain this week.
-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 on Twitter, iamatechnician on Reddit)