Kickoff: Sunday, January 3rd at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Betting Odds: GB -5.5, 50.5 total via Oddsshark
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
The Packers are still fighting for a first-round playoff bye even though they already clinched the NFC North. So Aaron Rodgers should be a full go this week against the Bears. The match-up isn’t great, but Rodgers is having an MVP-caliber season. Plus, he already put up 25 fantasy points against Chicago in Week 12. Start with confidence.
Aaron Jones (Start, High-end RB2), A.J. Dillon (Low-end Flex), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
Aaron Jones did pretty well with his limited carries last week, but rookie A.J. Dillon had the most impressive performance in Lambeau. The latter exploded for two touchdowns and 25.9 fantasy points on 21 carries. It’s worth mentioning that Jones got a little banged up in the first half and likely lost some carries for that reason. Still, after Dillon’s impressive performance, it’s hard to believe he hasn’t earned more work for himself (especially if Jamaal Williams is inactive again).
The splits in this backfield just became much more difficult to predict, and the Bears have been quite stingy against runners this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Jones and Dillon pretty much evenly splitting work at Soldier Field this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Allen Lazard (Sit), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Start, TE1)
The Bears’ secondary has been quite capable this year, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2020. Still, Davante Adams is having a great year and is the overall WR1 on the season. Match-ups don’t matter much for a receiver as talented as Davante. He should be capable of another WR1 performance this week.
Averaging just 3.75 targets per game over his past four, Allen Lazard isn’t getting enough work to reach fantasy relevance and is better off riding the fantasy bench for the rest of the year. Similarly, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has way more “busts” than “booms” this year and can’t be trusted every week. Valdes-Scantling has four games of zero fantasy points (or less) in his past five games.
After five straight games with a touchdown, Robert Tonyan finally came back down to Earth last week after the Titans kept him in check with only one reception. I wouldn’t give up on Tonyan if you’ve found yourself still playing fantasy football in Week 17 for some reason. The Bears allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if “Big Bob” Tonyan made a return to the TE1 tier.
Mitchell Trubisky (Start-able High-end QB2)
The Bears are fighting for a win and subsequent playoff berth this week. Mitchell Trubisky is playing well, the Bears control their destiny for the playoffs, but the fantasy match-up isn’t great. The Packers allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2020. Still, with a 50.5 projected total from Vegas, this game could turn into a bit of a shoot-out. Trubisky wouldn’t be my first option if I found myself in a Week 17 fantasy final, but you could certainly do worse. I’m placing Mitch just outside the QB1 tier this week.
David Montgomery (Start, RB1)
The Packers allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this year, and David Montgomery has been playing fantastic football lately. Montgomery is averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game over his past five. Plus, the Bears must win this game to make it into the playoffs. David should be used plenty in this game and should be in line for an RB1 performance.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Allen Robinson II (Start, WR1), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Anthony Miller (Sit), Cole Kmet (Sit, TE2), Jimmy Graham (Sit, TD-Dependant TE2)
Allen Robinson II will be the Bears’ top receiving option in a consequential game this week. Robinson has done well lately, but he will go up against a tough secondary. The Packers allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers in 2020. The cruddy match-up isn’t enough to rank Robinson outside the WR1 tier, though.
Neither Darnell Mooney nor Anthony Miller has been consistent enough to trust, especially if you’re in a Week 17 fantasy final. Mooney has had more fantasy relevance this year, but neither of these guys is start-able.
The tight end situation in Chicago has become troublesome since the emergence of Cole Kmet. Now, it’s anyone’s guess if Kmet or Jimmy Graham is more fantasy relevant. Cole usually sees more targets, but Jimmy has a nose for the end zone. I wouldn’t want to play the guessing game here unless you’re desperate for a tight end. Plus, the Packers allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)