Kickoff: Sunday, September 25th at 4:05 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA
Betting Odds: LAC, -7, 48 Total on Oddsshark
Writer: Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
Trevor Lawrence (Sit)
Trevor Lawrence looked good last week, throwing 25 of 30 for 235 yards and two touchdowns. That’s right, he only missed on five passes last week. The Chargers’ defense might be problematic for the Jaguars line and Lawrence. Last week the Colts hit the quarterback twice on Sunday and came up with zero sacks. In the Washington game, the pressure of ten QB hits and two sacks forced Lawrence to get rid of the ball quicker and only complete 57% of his passes. The two-game sample size has shown us when Lawrence is pressured, he doesn’t perform nearly as well. Enter the Los Angeles Chargers revamped defense, who have hit the QB 15 times, and officially sacked the quarterback seven times. Against the Raiders, they got to Derek Carr nine times, sacking him six times while forcing three interceptions. This will undoubtedly be the toughest test of T-Law’s second season in the league. I’m going to sit him this week under pressure from the Chargers’ defense.
Touchdown Jaguars!!! Trevor Lawrence to Christian Kirk for the first TD of the game. Trev is 8/8 to start the afternoon. 🎯
— Austin Pendergist (@apthirteen) September 18, 2022
James Robinson (Start, High-end Flex), Travis Etienne (Start, High-end Flex)
James Robinson takes it to the house pic.twitter.com/yo7V7MAvy0
— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 18, 2022
James Robinson continued to look like the comeback player of the year in Week 2. He’s had back-to-back 60+ yard games through two weeks. Last week he only averaged 2.78 yards yards-per-carry and isn’t the primary receiving back in Jacksonville. Travis Etienne might be the best back to play in this game. He’s led the team’s running back room with seven targets. Etienne has had about a 34% opportunity share of the running back touches. The Chargers’ defense has allowed 5.78 yards-per-carry but has yet to give up a rushing touchdown. They have given up the most receiving touchdowns to the running back position, with two. I think there’s a good chance we see Etienne score his first career touchdown on Sunday. Robinson and Etienne are both high-end flexes this week, FantasyPros has them as RB21 and RB36 respectively.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, WR2), Marvin Jones Jr (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
fun design from the Jaguars shifting Christian Kirk from the backfield to the weakside slot and creating an Empty formation.
Kirk then abuses the poor LB ironically named EJ Speed. pic.twitter.com/3TArggAUCG
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 20, 2022
Christian Kirk has taken 55% of his snaps out of the slot. Kirk has been a stud so far this year, putting on a tremendous performance in Week 2, with six receptions, 78 yards, and two touchdowns against the Colts. Kirk will have a tough challenge in nickel corner Bryce Callahan, who has done his best to allow Hunter Renfrow and JuJu Smith Schuster to only tally three receptions and 39 yards on eight targets. Kirk looks like he’ll be well worth that big contract he got but this week looks to be a challenge for the young wideout. I put him as a WR2 this week, and FantasyPros has him WR15. Marvin Jones needs to get in sync with Trevor Lawrence on the deep ball. Currently, he has a 15.3 ADOT, which means we’re seeing him get downfield he’s just not reeling in the big game-breaking passes. I’m sitting Jones Jr until he can prove that he’s still got that game-breaking ability. Evan Engram will be facing a Chargers defense that has allowed the fifth most yards (142) to tight ends but have only given up 7.1 fantasy points a game. The tight end position is a volatile position and finding consistency is key. So far Engram has consistently been peppered with targets, which makes him a startable tight end this week. FantasyPros has him at TE15.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
I've watched this throw from Justin Herbert so many times and it doesn't get less ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/0BMmIG5W3Z
— Jake Schyvinck (@JakeNFLDraft) September 20, 2022
Justin Herbert might be limited with a rib injury. Herbert has thrown for 613 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception through two games. He’s been as advertised for fantasy this year, currently ranked at QB9. The Jaguars have been a very opportunistic defense, ranking first in interceptions (5) and fifth in sacks (6). Last week they blanked the Matt Ryan-led Colts, but this week they have a tall task in holding Justin Herbert down. The Chargers will have their hands full this week with the new-look Jaguar offense and will have to throw the ball early and often. Herbert is always a startable QB1, and FantasyPros has him ranked QB5.
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1)
Austin Ekeler hasn’t looked like the 2021 Juggernaut that scored 20 touchdowns. As of 2022, Ekeler is averaging 2.7 ypc and until last week wasn’t getting much action in the receiving game either. Ekeler got back on track last week, catching nine of ten passes for 55 yards, helping to propel him to RB4 on the week. The Chargers will likely look to lean on Ekeler this week with Herbert dealing with an injury. Look for the Chargers to take advantage of the Jaguars giving up the second most receiving yards (138) to the running back position. Overall the Jaguars have been tough on running backs only allowing 117 rushing yards, the sixth-fewest. The Jags have also yet to allow a touchdown, which is impressive considering they played against Jonathan Taylor last week. Ekeler seems to be the type of back to give the Jags trouble so he’s a startable RB1 for me this week, and FantasyPros has him at RB8.
Austin Ekeler…wow… pic.twitter.com/3ohhqrir7l
— The 🦅's going 20-0* 😤 (@Love4thegameMal) September 16, 2022
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Mike Williams (Start, WR1), Keenan Allen (Start, WR2), Joshua Palmer (Start, Low-end Flex), Gerald Everett (TE1, Low-end flex)
GO UP AND GET IT MIKE WILLIAMS
— PFF (@PFF) September 16, 2022
Keenan Allen is not a guarantee to play this week, but if he does then there’s no doubt you start him. Mike Williams is elite when he’s called upon. Williams bounced back from a quiet Week 1 to put up eight receptions, 113 yards, and a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. Look for Williams to be a Start, but depending on Allen’s status he might be WR1 or WR2. This leads perfectly to Josh Palmer whose fantasy week was saved by a touchdown last week. The Jaguars’ defense is all over the board, as they’ve allowed the tenth fewest yards (275) and the second most touchdowns (4) to wide receivers. Quarterbacks also only complete 52.5% of their passes to the team’s wide receivers. Gerald Everett is the other factor in this game, as he has caught nine of 14 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown on the season. The Jags might give Everett a tough time this week as they have allowed just 4.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Both Palmer and Everett are solid flexes if we don’t have Allen on the field come Sunday.