Kickoff: Sunday, October 23rd, 2022, 1:oo PM ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Betting Odds: JAX -3, 42.5 total via Oddhsark.com
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@theDunit13 on Twitter)
New York Giants
Daniel Jones (Sit, QB2)
I don’t want to gloss over the fact that the Giants are 5-1 but it’s not because of the play of Daniel Jones. Jones is a game manager who has done very well managing the run game while he has had no real wide receivers to speak of. Coming into week 7 the Giants look to continue their winning ways against the Jaguars. Jones still isn’t more than a low-end QB2. He hasn’t thrown over 250 yards yet for the season and only has one game over 200. He has only thrown touchdowns in three games and added rushing touchdowns in one other. He is protecting the ball which has been a weak spot for him in the past. He only has two interceptions on the year and two fumbles. He isn’t costing you fantasy weeks but he also isn’t winning you weeks. He only has one game as a QB1 and one as a QB2. Other than that he has been below the QB2 range. Jones gets the Jaguars that are giving up the 19th most points to the quarterback position with 15.17. It’s not a bad matchup but it’s not a great matchup either. As the wideouts get healthy maybe he take a step up but until I see it I’m not starting him.
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB1) Matt Breida (Sit)
What a gem Saquon Barkley has been this season. As a player who was going late in the first or early second round, he is giving you tremendous value. Even if he was drafted early in the first he would be a great pick. He is currently the number-one running back in PPR leagues. He is averaging just under 20 carries per game on the season. He has four touchdowns and could have had another if he doesn’t go down to keep the clock running this week. He is facing the Jaguars who are giving up the 6th most fantasy points at 26.97. Barkley is averaging 5.18 yards per carrying. He should feast this week. He is in your starting line for the rest of the season as long as he stays healthy,
If the Giants can stop the Jaguars from putting points on the board we could see an increased workload for Matt Breida and Gary Barnwell. I don’t think either is fantasy relevant but they are names to monitor as handcuffs. The Giants are rushing the ball 52% of the time which is fourth most in the league. It’s a high-volume rushing offense that can produce fantasy-relevant players based on volume alone. Barkley is capitalizing on his skill but Breida and Barnwell could do well given more opportunities.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Wan’Dale Robinson (Start, WR3), David Sills (Sit), Richie James (Sit), Darius Slayton (Sit) Marcus Johnson (Sit) Daniel Bellinger (Start)
So many names to write about but only two that matter. You aren’t considering Kenny Golladay or Kadarius Toney if they make it back into the game this week after missing multiple games because even when they did play they were trash. Despite having success earlier in the season both David Sills and Richie James only played on under 40% of the team’s snaps this past week. James ran 12 routes while Sills only ran 8. It’s low opportunity volume on a low passing volume team.
Wan’Dale Robinson did finally make some waves by posting a touchdown against the Ravens. It’s a sign of what managers have been waiting for from the rookie. He only played on 23% of the team’s snaps and only ran 11 routes but saw four targets on those routes. It was his first game back after missing the past four so the Giants were working him in slowly. He has great speed, running a 4.44 forty time at the combine. He could get mixed into the run game which has been relying on Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones to haul the rock. I like Robinson as a WR3 this week.
Marcus Johnson got the starting role this past week, played on 62% of the team’s snaps, and ran 24 routes which tied for second on the team with Darius Slayton. Slayton played on 69% of the team’s snaps and saw three targets compared to Johnson’s four. I think Slayton gets pushed down the depth chart by Robinson who played 8 snaps in the slot, while Johnson has to only contend with the injured players and others for the outside role which he played on 23 snaps. I’m not starting either right now but will stash them on my rosters. One could have a game and separate themselves but I’m not risking my fantasy win on that.
The last name that you need to know about is a rookie tight end, Daniel Bellinger. He led the team in Week 6 targets with five. He caught all of them for 38 yards and a touchdown. It’s the second week in a row he has been in the TE1 category. He also saw his snap share jump from 60% to 94%. he ran 26 routes, leading the team, and fellow tight end Tanner Hudson ran zero routes. Bellinger has stepped into the starting role. It’s not a great matchup for him going against the team giving up the 11th fewest points to tight ends with 9.52. I still think you can ride the hot hand and start him expecting him to be in the TE2 range this week.
Trevor Lawrence (Sit, QB2)
It hasn’t been the show-stopping, scene-stealing year that Trevor Lawrence truthers were expecting. The Jaguars are only 2-4 and now face the red-hot Giants. The Giants are giving up only 14.7 points to the quarterback position putting them at 12th best. They finally got their first interception of the year in Week 6 off Lamar Jackson. It’s a tough matchup for Lawrence. He is coming off two weeks of rough passing games. He saved his week six game with two rushing touchdowns. Over the past two weeks, he has only one touchdown and two interceptions. It’s been a downturn from his first four weeks where he had eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
He also has four lost fumbles, which all came along with one of those interceptions in the Week 4 game against the Eagles. TLaw will have to get it going to be fantasy relevant. He has been in the QB1 range two times this year including week six where he rushed for two TDS. He has been a QB2 once. He has been in the sitting category three times. It’s not the best consistency and given the matchup, I’m not starting the former first-overall pick.
Travis Etienne (Start, Flex), James Robinson (Sit, FLEX)
The Travis Etienne takeover might have taken a small step backward in Week 6. Looking at the snap share Etienne played on 29 snaps compared to James Robinson‘s 27. Even playing two more snaps Robinson went for two more attempts than Etienne with 12 to 10. Etienne was way more efficient on his carries compiling 86 yards (8.6 ypc) compared to Robinson with only 54 yards (4.5 ypc). There wasn’t much difference in the passing work. Robinson only ran eight routes and only got one target. ETN ran 13 routes and saw two targets. It’s not a great matchup against the Giants giving up the 10th fewest points to the running back position at 19.88.
I think Etienne is the better back out of the duo. He should be given early opportunities. He can be trusted as a solid Flex player. He has been in the range five out of the six weeks and has yet to reach the end zone. Robinson will be lower in the flex range. He gets carries but has only been barely a flex play once over the past three weeks when Etienne started to take over.
Jamal Hasty had a big run for a touchdown in Week 6. He only played on 16% of the team’s snaps and saw three total opportunities. Chasing those points even during bye weeks is the best way to secure a big L for the week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, Flex), Zay Jones (Sit, FLEX), Marvin Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
The matchup this week is not great at all. The Giants are giving up the fewest points to the wide receiver position with 23.53. The Jaguars don’t have an elite group of wide receivers though they may look like it compared to their counterparts across the field. The Jags are middle of the road passing the ball 55% of the time and Lawrence is completing 65.5% of his passes and is 12th in total passing attempts. Christian Kirk is the leading receiver with 44 targets on the year. He has four touchdowns including one in the last game. The touchdown saved his fantasy day as he only had four receptions for 24 yards. He should be in your lineup but expectations have to be limited. He will be in the flex range with an upside if he scores.
Marvin Jones missed the Week 6 game with a hamstring injury so his availability for this game will be in question most of the week. I’m not starting him even if he is active. Zay Jones on the other hand benefits from Marvin being out. He was tied for the team league in targets in Week 6 with five. He caught all of them for 42 yards. Zay Jones will be in the flex range but on the lower end. He has only been twice outside of flex or sit ranges but hasn’t happened since Week 3.
Tight end Evan Engram has been good lately. After a disappointing start to the season where he only had one good game out of four, he now has two games where he has five or more catches and has been a TE1 and just outside of that range this past week. He gets the Giants who are giving up the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends at 14.12. In his three games where Engram has been a fantasy impact, he has seen at least 20% of the team’s targets. Given the great matchup for him and the bad matchup for the wideouts and recent trends, I expect Engram to be a great play this week. Start him as a TE1.