Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 23rd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Betting Odds: TB -11, 40.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start, QB1)
Like Duracell batteries, Tom Brady just keeps going and going. Despite the turmoil going on in his personal life, Brady has been solid once again in his 23rd NFL season. Brady is averaging 275 passing yards per game and has tossed at least one TD in each contest this season. Brady is also in the midst of his best season when it comes to INTs as his lone pick came back in Week 1 and he leads the NFL with a 0.4 INT%. Speaking of turmoil, the Panthers are rife with it after firing HC Matt Rhule after the team’s Week 5 loss and sending WR Robbie Anderson to the locker room (and to the other side of the country!) after arguing with his position coach before ultimately trading him to Arizona later that day. QBs have found success against Carolina this season, averaging more than 230 yards and one TD per game against them this season. Look for another solid outing from Brady this week as he once again lands in the QB1 ranks.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (Start, RB1), Rachaad White (Sit, low-end FLEX)
If you were to look at solely the rushing stats for Leonard Fournette this season, it might be a bit surprising to see him among the RB1 ranks but he currently sits at RB9 for the season thanks to his efficiency in the passing game. Fournette is already at a career-highs for TD receptions in a season with three, receptions per game (5.3), and receiving yards per game (38.7). Fournette also is having a career year in his catching percentage at 88.9%. Injuries at the WR position may have contributed to his increased involvement in the passing game, but he’s shown he can be a valuable asset and I expect him to continue to be a trusted target for Brady. Fantasy managers can trust him this week as well as I expect another RB1 performance in Week 7.
Tampa Bay likes what they see in rookie Rachaad White as they’ve given him increased snaps the last three weeks and have shown trust in him to get critical yards on third down. White has yet to exceed 40% of the offensive snaps in any game this season but when he is on the field he is rarely used as a blocker (8% of total snaps). White won’t produce great fantasy numbers while Fournette is healthy, but he does bring an intriguing upside to the position. Given the number of injuries across the skill positions in the NFL right now and four teams on a BYE this week, I can see a scenario where White returns FLEX-level production in larger leagues, but expect that production on the lower side.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Russell Gage (Sit), Cameron Brate (OUT?/Sit), Cade Otton (Sit, TE2 if Brate out)
Mike Evans continues to be Brady’s favorite target as the veteran leads the team in targets per game (6.6), receiving yards (358), yards per reception (14.9), and receiving TDs (3) when looking at players with 10 or more targets. Evans has always been a great target near the end zone as well. As of this writing, it is unknown whether Carolina’s top CB Jaycee Horn will play or not with a rib injury, but if he misses a second straight week, that’s even better news for Evans and Tampa Bay’s entire passing game. With WRs getting healthier for the Buccaneers, they tend to cannibalize each other’s stats, so fantasy managers should expect Evans to return WR2 value this week with WR1 upside.
Injuries limited Chris Godwin in Week 4 and Week 5, but he was back to full health last week and promptly led the team in targets (12) and receiving yards (95) and tied for the team lead in receptions (6). Godwin was used downfield more last week than at any point so far this season as his ADOT was 11.7 yards, far above his season average of 7.4. With Vegas expecting a blowout this week, it’s hard to envision another high-volume game for Brady and I don’t expect Godwin to get three times the targets as Evans again. Look for Godwin to produce numbers similar to Evans and finish as a WR2 in Week 7.
As the only WR to play in all six of Tampa Bay’s games this season, Russell Gage has been a bigger part of the passing game than many expected heading into the season. Gage trails only Fournette in total targets with 35 but has managed just 192 yards and one TD. Gage is seeing the lowest ADOT of his career (5.9 yards) and, as such, is not producing enough to be a reliable fantasy option despite his larger-than-expected role. There is no word yet on whether Julio Jones will return to action this week, but his presence would further lower Gage’s upside. Fantasy managers should have better options this week, so keep him on your bench.
The starting TE for Week 7 is unknown at this time after Cameron Brate was taken from Tampa Bay’s Week 6 game after suffering a concussion and neck injury. The early expectation is that Brate will miss this week’s game, paving the way for rookie Cade Otton to be the primary TE once again. Otton played without Brate in Week 5 and garnered seven targets, converting six for 43 yards. Otton has been as involved in the offense as Brate and Brady has shown the TE position much love in his career, so Otton could be a sneaky play this week. I think he finishes outside the TE1 ranks given the likelihood that Tampa Bay is in control for most of the game and passes less than normal, but there is a path for starting TE production this week. Sit Otton unless you’re desperate at the position because of injuries or BYEs.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
P.J. Walker, Jacob Eason, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield (Sit whoever plays)
I’ve been writing these articles for some time now, and I can safely say this is the first time I’ve listed four names under the QB section. I listed them in the order I expect them to be named the starter this week, but in reality, right now nobody knows who will take the first snap for Carolina. P.J. Walker left last week’s game with a neck injury but passed concussion protocol and indicated he should be able to play this week. Jacob Eason relieved him on Sunday and would be the presumed starter if Walker’s injury is more serious than originally diagnosed. Sam Darnold is eligible to be removed from the injured reserve list on Wednesday, but I can’t imagine him getting back to game speed before Sunday. Baker Mayfield was seen in a walking boot on Sunday and seems on the doubtful side of questionable for this week. Regardless of who starts, I can’t recommend anybody from this group this week. Avoid the headache and move on.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1), D’Onta Foreman (Sit), Chuba Hubbard (Sit)
Rumors were swirling late last week that the Panthers could be persuaded to trade star RB Christian McCaffrey if the price was right. McCaffrey didn’t get moved and he put up another solid outing with 158 combined yards on 20 touches and is still the focal point of Carolina’s offense. McCaffrey dominates the backfield carries as he has 85 through six games while the rest of the team has a combined 39 carries and McCaffrey is also second on the team in targets with 43. He’s not the runaway #1 RB in fantasy football anymore, but the volume can’t be denied and that’s what keeps him in the RB1 conversation again this week. Look for McCaffrey to challenge for the #1 overall RB in Week 7 and fantasy managers can confidently start him against Tampa Bay.
It’s been a bit tough trying to predict who would become the primary RB if McCaffrey were to miss time again this season between D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman has one more snap on the season than Hubbard and has seen the most work of the two in any one game with a 23% snap share last week. Neither has been productive when given the chance as Foreman has 37 total yards to Hubbard’s 34. Carolina’s offense has struggled this season and neither of these backs has the talent to overcome it unless they get a McCaffrey-sized workload, so pass on both in Week 7.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
D.J. Moore (Start, WR2), Shi Smith (Sit), Terrace Marshall Jr. (Sit), Ian Thomas (Sit)
A lot of attention is going to be given to Robbie Anderson’s departure after the public blowup between him and both WR coach Joe Dailey and interim HC Steve Wilkes. From a fantasy perspective, that just opens up more opportunities for the one bright spot in the passing game: D.J. Moore. Moore was already the team leader in targets with 44, but there is a lot of inexperience behind him now at the WR position and whoever lines up at QB should be looking for Moore often. The Buccaneers haven’t given up much to opposing WRs this season but are giving up an average of one receiving TD per game. Moore is not going to carry your fantasy team, but the volume he’s likely to receive this week should push him into the WR2 range for PPR leagues. His value does take a hit in non-PPR leagues, but I think he can be a FLEX option in those formats as well.
The two WRs expected to see the biggest increase in playing time in the wake of Anderson’s trade are Shi Smith and Terrace Marshall Jr. Smith has been Carolina’s primary option out of the slot and I don’t expect that to change with Anderson gone. Smith is now third on the team in targets with 20 but might see a slight uptick now. The biggest beneficiary seems to be Marshall who has primarily manned one of the outside WR positions when on the field. Marshall is a nice target (6-3, 200 pounds) and should be next in line for Anderson’s vacated snaps. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, there isn’t much left in the passing game after McCaffrey and Moore and it’s hard to get excited about guys who will probably only see six to eight targets a game. Either might be worth an add for depth, but neither is worth a start in Week 7.
Much like the two WRs listed in the preceding paragraph, Ian Thomas is the #1 TE for the Panthers but is WAY down the line when it comes to importance in the passing game. Thomas has just 16 targets on the season and while he has done about as much as he can with them (10 receptions, 115 yards), he simply doesn’t see enough volume to trust every week. Thomas’s best game was way back in Week 1 when he had two receptions for 53 yards. With the uncertainty surrounding the QB position and his place in the passing game pecking order, fantasy managers have better options at TE for Week 7.