Kickoff: Monday, October 26th at 8:15 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: LAR -7, 47 total via Oddsshark
Nick Foles (Sit)
Since the Bears replaced Mitchell Trubisky with Nick Foles, there hasn’t really been much of a statistical difference. Foles has completed 3% more passes (62.5% to 59.3% for Trubisky), the same amount of touchdowns (6), a lower rating and not nearly as many rushing yards. Foles is the QB28 on the season and he simply hasn’t been worth anyone’s time from a fantasy perspective. The Bears are 5-1, so he’s doing enough to win real world football games, but he’s not going to move the needle in a matchup against a team like the Rams who have a solid pass defense and one of the best front sevens in the league. Leave Foles on waivers for this one.
David Montgomery (Start, Flex)
Our resident Bears fan here at QB List, Mike Miklius, has labeled David Montgomery as “just a guy” recently, and that’s not high praise for an RB who many thought had a chance at breaking out this season. Montgomery is currently the RB18 in PPR formats, averaging 3.7 YPC and just over four targets per game while running behind the 13th best run-blocking offensive like according to Football Outsiders. The Rams defense is good against the run, allowing the 13th fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. If it were a better matchup I could maybe see RB2 upside, but he’s a flex play at best in this one.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Allen Robinson (Start, WR3), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Anthony Miller (Sit), Cordarrelle Patterson (Sit), Jimmy Graham (Start, TE2)
It really worries me that Allen Robinson is going to be stranded on Ramsey Island this week, especially since I roster him in the majority of my leagues. Pro Football Focus only has Jalen Ramsey ranked as the 16th best cornerback in the league this season, but he’s a big-game player and he plays up against the best of the best. The Rams as a unit have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, largely thanks to corners Darious Williams, Ramsey, and safety Jordan Fuller who all rank highly in coverage this season.
The saving grace for Robinson is that he leads the league in targets and is still going to get fed, but how many he actually comes down with is a crapshoot. I’m being really conservative in my ranking for Robinson this week, as a WR3/flex option who still has upside but expectations need to be dampened. He’s a set-it-and-forget-it guy, a Ronco if you will, so you’re going to start him, just don’t expect 25+ points okay?
The matchup does not bode well for the other receiving weapons in this one, though I do like Jimmy Graham to get additional looks this week. The Rams have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to TEs this season, and they did just get lit up by George Kittle on Sunday night. Graham is no Kittle at this stage of his career, but he has seen at least five targets in all but one game this year and he does have 4 TDs on the season. I like his chances for a TD in this one along with 6-10 targets, so he’s a solid option if you need a bye week fill-in at TE.
Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff (Sit, QB2)
Jared Goff hasn’t been spectacular this season, but he also hasn’t been terrible. He’s currently sitting as QB13 in fantasy with a respectable 18.8 PPG. He’s been sacked seven times this season behind the 3rd best pass-blocking offensive line per Football Outsiders, and he has a 10-4 TD-INT ratio that looks good on paper. This matchup is not great, however, as the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. That’s largely due to the fact they haven’t allowed more than one passing TD in any of their six games so far, and while I like Goff’s chances to be the first QB to achieve that goal this week I wouldn’t put my life savings on it. The Rams do have a very good offensive line which should keep Goff upright despite the Bears’ knack for sacks this season (15). Roll with Goff if you don’t have better options, but temper expectations.
Darrell Henderson (Sit, Flex), Malcolm Brown (Sit), Cam Akers (Sit)
Man, this backfield really isn’t any fun, huh? Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown have been splitting carries all year, and you never really know which one is going to get the most on any given week. And now with Cam Akers back, the man who many of us thought and still think is the most talented of the bunch, who the heck knows what’s going to happen? It’s a weird case where Brown is getting more snaps, but Henderson is getting the ball more often in his snaps than Brown is. Because of that, I’d have to guess that Henderson is who we want to roster moving forward, but what about this week? Well, the Bears defense is no joke. They’ve allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, largely thanks to defensive lineman Brent Urban, who is the 7th best interior lineman against the run this season according to Pro Football Focus. The Rams do have the best run-blocking offensive line in the game, so it’s going to be a battle in the trenches come Monday night. I’m leaning away from Henderson this week, but if you need a flex option you could probably do worse.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Robert Woods (Start, WR3), Cooper Kupp (Start, WR3), Josh Reynolds (Sit), Tyler Higbee (Sit), Gerald Everett (Sit)
Chicago’s Kyle Fuller is actually ranked higher in coverage than Jalen Ramsey this year, and he’s been just as dominant as a top corner should be expected to be. Fuller Island isn’t a thing, yet, but what was said about Allen Robinson above can be said again for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Daaaaa Bears have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, and as I said earlier a team has not scored more than one TD through the air on them. Woods and Kupp will get their fair share of targets, I just don’t think the ceiling is very high for either of them. 10-15 PPR points would be acceptable out of them this week, and that’s WR3/Flex territory at best. Kupp feels due for a blowup game, I just don’t think it’s going to be this week. Woods has been the most consistent fantasy producer thanks to his occasional usage on the ground, so if I had to choose between the two I’d go with him having the better game.
Neither tight end has had more than five targets all season, and without a lot of targets I don’t feel comfortable starting either of them. If you can, stay away. Maybe Jimmy Graham is available for you on waivers, who I like much more than either Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett this week.
-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 on Twitter, iamatechnician on Reddit)