Kickoff: Sunday, October 25th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: GB -3.5, 56 total via Oddsshark
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
Aaron Rodgers had an abysmal outing last week that saw his worst fantasy performance since Week 17 of the 2018 season when he had to leave the game early with a concussion. If I’m not mistaken, last week was the absolute worst full-game fantasy performance in Rodgers’ entire career. Fortunately, Rodgers has a good shot at a “bounce back” week against the Texans. Houston is allowing plenty of passing yards and about 20 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game. On top of that, this game should be high-scoring. “AR12” will likely need to throw the ball plenty, but he may be without one of his best offensive linemen, David Bakhtiari, this week.
Aaron Jones (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
Aaron Jones had a mediocre RB2 performance last week, but the entire Packers’ offense was struggling. He should be back in the RB1 conversation this week. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards and third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this year. Fire up Jones with confidence.
After his huge Week 4, Jamaal Williams came back down to Earth in Week 6. A handful of carries and a few targets will likely be his weekly workload, capping his fantasy relevance.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Start, Low-end TE1)
The Texans are allowing the 12th-most passing yards per game this year. Davante Adams had a lackluster WR3 performance last week, but the Packers’ offense was struggling. Houston is allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, so Adams should be capable of a WR1 performance.
With four WR4 performances in a row, it’s looking like Marquez Valdes-Scantling is hardly even worth a spot on your bench. He’s bound to catch one or two deep balls and put up an impressive fantasy performance one of these weeks, but his output is going to be too volatile to accurately predict.
Just when we thought Robert Tonyan was the real deal, he had a disappointing performance in Week 6. Tonyan tweaked his ankle last week but was able to come back into the game and still out-snapped all Green Bay tight ends. Houston is allowing enough points to tight ends (11th-most in the league) to warrant firing up Tonyan again this week if he’s active. “Big Bob” Tonyan didn’t practice on Wednesday, so keep an eye on his status this week.
Deshaun Watson (Start, Low-end QB1)
Deshaun Watson has stepped up over the past three weeks with some impressive performances. Watson had some favorable match-ups the past three weeks but should have a tougher go of it this week against a capable Green Bay defense that’s been top-12 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this year. Still, the Packers have been middle-of-the-road in passing yards allowed, and this game should be pretty high-scoring. Watson has the opportunity to put up another QB1 performance, but I’m predicting it will be on the lower end this week.
David Johnson (Start, Low-end RB1), Duke Johnson Jr. (Sit)
David Johnson has been steadily creeping up the RB2 ladder for the past three weeks. Fantasy players with Johnson on their rosters should be excited for Week 7. The Packers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this year and I believe David should finally achieve RB1 status this week. Johnson has plenty of upside against Green Bay, so make sure he’s in your starting lineup.
The Texans’ interim head coach talked up Duke Johnson Jr. before last week’s game as someone who could receive more work, but that turned out to be a bunch of “coach speak.” Johnson received pretty much the same amount of work he’s been seeing all year. He’s no more than an insurance policy for David Johnson owners for now.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Will Fuller V (Start, WR2), Brandin Cooks (Start, Low-end WR2), Randall Cobb (Sit), Kenny Stills (Sit), Darren Fells (Start-able TE2 if Akins inactive), Jordan Akins (Start-able TE2 if active)
Will Fuller V stepped up last week with his best fantasy performance so far this year. That was against a Titans defense that’s allowing the fourth-most points to fantasy wide receivers. The Packers will be a tougher match-up. Green Bay is currently top-seven in points allowed to wide receivers this year, but the Texans will likely need to throw the ball plenty in this game. Between the Houston receivers, I’m downgrading Fuller a bit this week because he will probably see plenty of cornerback Jaire Alexander. I don’t think it will be a full-on shadow situation, but both Fuller and Alexander tend to line up on the same side of the field. Still, if Fuller sees plenty of targets like he did last week, he should have enough volume to put up WR2 numbers.
It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for Brandin Cooks, but after two WR1 performances in a row, he’s looking like the real deal. This week brings a tougher match-up, but similar to Fuller, Cooks should have enough opportunities if he sees 9+ targets again. The match-up isn’t great, but if the Texans find themselves in a shootout, I believe Cooks will have a pretty safe floor in Week 7.
Randall Cobb has been flirting with WR3 production the past two weeks, but I’m downgrading him a bit this week with a tougher match-up against his former team. Apart from his 11.9-point Week 4 fantasy performance, Kenny Stills has been a disappointment this year. He isn’t worth any consideration for now.
It’s going to be tough trying to pin down the Houston tight ends this week. Darren Fells wasn’t exactly a sexy option last week. Many expected him to get about two targets, but he ended up with seven passes and an explosive 20.5-point fantasy performance. Meanwhile, Jordan Akins didn’t practice on Wednesday, so he may not play again this week. I’m operating under the assumption that one of these guys will receive about seven targets this week, depending upon who starts. Akins will likely need another week of rest, though. Fells should be a serviceable fill-in, assuming he receives another seven targets. Keep in mind, the Packers have been quite good against tight ends in 2020 but just got torched by Gronk last week.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)