Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 6th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Betting Odds: BUF -13, 47.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Even with a BYE week under his belt, Josh Allen is still fantasy’s highest-scoring QB through the first eight weeks of the 2022 season. The fifth-year quarterback has lived up to the lofty expectations regarding his fantasy production and shows little sign of slowing down. The Jets have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, but the tough match-up won’t be enough to downgrade this elite fantasy option.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), Nyheim Hines (Sit)
Although Devin Singletary is a talented back on a dominant offense, he has struggled with inconsistent fantasy output this year, mainly because his quarterback is a fantastic rusher as well. Singletary seemed poised for a big game last week as the Bills pulled ahead of the Packers, but Buffalo elected to give rookie James Cook more reps as the game went on.
The Jets are ranked in the middle of the league in rushing yards allowed and have given up 17.1 fantasy points per game to running backs. The Jets have a talented team on both sides of the ball this year, and their defense should be good enough to keep them in this game, which should be good news for Singletary. Buffalo will lean on their veteran back while the game is still competitive, and I believe that should mean enough usage for Devin to reach RB2 territory.
The Bills acquired Nyheim Hines via trade on Tuesday, but fantasy managers would do well to wait a week before considering Hines start-able. Hines’ pass-catching ability should shine in this dynamic offense, but it’s unlikely Nyheim receives a high snap share in his first week with Buffalo. That said, Hines’ presence doesn’t bode well for Singletary’s fantasy value going forward.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR2), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit), Dawson Knox (Start, TE2)
There isn’t much to say about Stefon Diggs that hasn’t already been said. He’s one of (if not the) best receivers in the league, with one of (if not the) best quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Diggs is on pace to end the season as the overall PPR WR1 and is averaging 24.8 fantasy points and a touchdown per game this year. The Jets’ pass defense has been impressive, conceding the eighth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, but the negative match-up won’t be enough to slow down Diggs’ historic season.
Gabe Davis had his second-worst fantasy performance of the season last week against the Packers, but fantasy managers shouldn’t worry much about the third-year receiver. Davis was covered by talented corner Jaire Alexander on 61 percent of his routes last week, severely limiting his fantasy output. Davis is still the second-most-targeted player in Buffalo and should be in line for a solid bounce-back performance this week in what could become a high-scoring game.
Isaiah McKenzie hasn’t seen enough work to be a reliable fantasy option. He had a touchdown last week but only saw one target and two carries. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for more dependable alternatives.
Dawson Knox has shown impressive efficiency lately, scoring a touchdown on three targets in each of his last two games. The only question is whether he can continue to find the end zone. I’m ranking Knox near the top of the TE2 tier this week and believe he should be a decent streaming option throughout most of the season. Even if Knox is “touchdown-dependent” for the rest of the year, he’s still on one of the most high-powered offenses in the league and a trusted red zone target. Knox should be capable of another respectable performance against a Jets defense that’s been middling against the position this year (13th-most fantasy points allowed).
New York Jets
Quarterback
Zach Wilson (Sit)
It’s been a subpar sophomore season for Zach Wilson. The young quarterback has thrown three touchdowns and five interceptions through his first five games in 2022. The struggles will likely continue this week when Wilson goes up against a Bills defense that’s allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Michael Carter (Sit, Flex), James Robinson (Sit, Flex)
The Michael Carter hype seems to be short-lived. Many thought Carter might get the lion’s share after the rookie sensation Breece Hall sustained a season-ending injury in Week 7. Instead, the Jets wasted no time acquiring James Robinson from Jacksonville before their Week 8 clash against the Patriots. Carter didn’t show a whole lot of promise against New England. His four catches on seven targets accounted for 40 percent of his 10.1-point week, and he only saw seven rushing attempts.
Predictably, Robinson didn’t see many attempts in his first week with the Jets, but New York acquired him for a reason. They want James to be a one-cut back who can make a play and get down-field just like Hall was before the injury. I believe Robinson will eventually be the most valuable fantasy running back on the Jets, but I’m not confident that will happen this week.
Buffalo has conceded the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and the fourth-fewest ground yards this year. I’m expecting a pretty even split between Carter and Robinson. Either of these guys could achieve at least low-end FLEX production, but it’s too risky of a play considering the uncertainty with this backfield and the awful match-up. Sit both if you can this week, but I like Robinson’s long-term value.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR3), Elijah Moore (Sit), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Corey Davis (Sit, Flex), Tyler Conklin (Start, TE2)
Corey Davis is still considered day-to-day with an MCL sprain and did not practice on Wednesday. Davis could be on a pitch count even if he suits up this week, making him an unreliable fantasy option facing a talented Buffalo defense. The safe move is to keep Davis on the bench for at least one more week if you can afford the roster spot.
Given Davis’ shaky situation, Garrett Wilson should again be the best wide receiver option for the Jets this week. Davis was the highest-targeted Jets wide receiver in Week 8 and should see similar usage against the Bills. That said, Buffalo is allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards this year, so Wilson’s ceiling may be capped this week. Still, the expected volume makes Garrett a start-able WR3 option.
Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios haven’t seen enough usage to warrant any start consideration. Moore was hoping to get traded before the deadline and put up a goose egg on one target last week. Berrios had a goose egg last week too and has seen one or fewer targets in six of eight games this year.
Tyler Conklin led the team with ten targets and two touchdowns last week for a monster 25.9-point performance. The match-up against a stout Buffalo defense this week should temper expectations a bit for Tyler. Conklin is in the high-end TE2 tier this week and should be a decent streaming option for tight-end needy teams if he continues to see a substantial target share.
So I’m confused. In this article, you say Justin Fields is a must-start against Miami, and Trevor Lawrence is a sit versus Vegas. But the “Range of Outcomes” tool seems to indicate that Lawrence is a pretty solid point or two better than Fields. Which way do I go?
The Range of Outcomes tool just shows you the probability. doesn’t actually give you any real advice or analysis.
Great analysis as always! I appreciate the detailed breakdown of each player’s performance in Week 9. It’s really helpful for making those tough start/sit decisions. Looking forward to your insights for the upcoming weeks!