I view Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott purely as handcuffs and wouldn’t start either under most circumstances.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), DeVonta Smith (Start, WR2), Quez Watkins (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sit), Dallas Goedert (Start, TE1), Jack Stoll (Sit)
I’ll keep this brief, if you roster A.J. Brown, start A.J. Brown.
DeVonta Smith has had a solid floor all year. Since Week 2, Smith has had two games with eight points or less paired with four games of fifteen or more. The Texans are surprisingly good against fantasy wide receivers, allowing 16.14 ppg (5th-fewest). Still, this is a game the Eagles are expected to score early and often, and I see Smith getting involved.
The seventh-best tight end as of Week 8, Dallas Goedert is set to have another solid performance. Besides his 4-point dud in Week 6, Goedert has had 11 or more points every week since Week 2. As 14-point favorites, I expect all relevant Eagles pass catchers to get their share this game, and Goedert is no exception.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
Davis Mills (Sit, Low-QB2)
This weekend Mills Mafia sleeps with the fishes. This will be a tough weekend for Davis Mills. The Eagles allow 10.43 ppg to opposing signal-callers, the second-fewest in the league. Mills has only topped 14 points twice all season, and I don’t think he’ll do it again this week. In 1QB leagues, Mills should remain a free agent. In 2QB leagues, you may have to start him with six teams on bye, but look elsewhere first. I like PJ Walker, Mac Jones, and Sam Ehlinger more than Mills this week.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Start, Low-RB1), Rex Burkhead (Sit)
There’s no stopping the Snow-Piercer. Since his coming out game in Week 3, Dameon Pierce is RB10 averaging 18.8 ppg. Over the last four weeks, he’s averaging five targets per game, and since Week 2 he has one game under 69 yards. Although the Texans are 14-point underdogs against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, you should still start Pierce with confidence in all circumstances.
The rise of Pierce resulted in the fall of Burkhead. Rex Burkhead was on the field for 19% of all offensive snaps last week, where he brought in his one target for two yards. Burkhead only has value as Pierce’s handcuff.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandin Cooks (Start, WR2), Nico Collins (Sit), Chris Moore (Sit), Phillip Dorsett (Sit), Brevin Jordan (Sit), Jordan Akins (Sit), O.J. Howard (Sit)
There were rumors that Brandin Cooks would be traded before the deadline. The deadline came and went and Cooks is still a Texan. He missed practice Tuesday on deadline day, and it sounds like deals were close, but no team wanted to take on his massive $18 million guaranteed salary for 2023. All that aside, how does Cooks look as a starter this week?
I have him as a mid-to-low WR2. Philadelphia has two of the best corners in the game. The Eagles allow 17.14 ppg to opposing WRs, the seventh-fewest in the league. The matchup is intimidating, but that hasn’t stopped Cooks in the past. Against the Broncos, the number one defense against WRs allowing only 10.5 ppg, Cooks still put up 9.4. The upside is he’s going to continue to get all the targets, his 53 targets are a big gap over Collins’ 30. Speaking of Nico Collins, he missed last week and didn’t practice Tuesday. I don’t expect him to suit up for a Thursday night game this week.
As for the other pass-catchers, none of them should come anywhere near your starting lineup. If Cooks misses Thursday, Phillip Dorsett gets a slight bump.
So I’m confused. In this article, you say Justin Fields is a must-start against Miami, and Trevor Lawrence is a sit versus Vegas. But the “Range of Outcomes” tool seems to indicate that Lawrence is a pretty solid point or two better than Fields. Which way do I go?
The Range of Outcomes tool just shows you the probability. doesn’t actually give you any real advice or analysis.