Week 1 Recap
Last week, we highlighted four tight ends. Two were “starts,” and two were “flyers.” We kept it overly positive in the spirit of unbridled Week 1 optimism and faded no one. We’ll take a harder stance in Week 2 and beyond, but let’s assess our Week 1 calls first.
We knocked it out of the park with our Dallas Goedert recommendation. We were well above consensus on the Philadelphia Eagles tight end, and he finished as the overall TE3. Let’s go! Crown us!
Before we get too carried away on our victory lap, we expected more from Dalton Schultz. Fading newcomer Kayshon Boutte (and others like Jaylin Noel) for short and intermediate targets was the right call: the two WRs saw a mere four targets combined.
However, the results, for our purposes, were disappointing: only David Montgomery’s Momma could have predicted a three-touchdown day from the Houston Texans’ new running back. Included in that scoring bonanza: Monty’s first receiving touchdown in four years. Just one of those TDs tossed into Schultz’s hands instead would’ve made us look great…but alas.
For TE streamers, we predicted a possible low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 finish for Michael Mayer. The 35th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft inherited a juicy matchup against the Miami Dolphins after Brock Bowers‘s surprise, last-minute knee procedure. Mayer finished as the TE19 in PPR, so he was a catch or two from living up to our hopes.
We then put the spotlight on two deeper pulls for those in leagues of unusually large sizes: Cade Otton and Terrance Ferguson. Like other skill position players in the Buccaneers offense, Otton was robbed of touches and opportunities by a cornucopia of Baker Mayfield turnovers. Only those in 32-team leagues were helped by Otton, who placed as the TE25. As for Turd Ferguson, the explosive second-year Rams TE failed to record a single catch. One of four targeted Rams tight ends, Ferguson ended up as nothing more than a fart in the wind for those who gambled on his upside.
Week 2 Tight Ends
Don’t overreact to Week 1 performances, no matter how good or bad. However, it would also be malpractice to take Week 1 and throw it in the trash can. Speaking of garbage, we’re concerned about the quarterback situation in Atlanta, as Cooper Rush looked very much like…well…Cooper Rush. We’re therefore downgrading Kyle Pitts significantly, so consider him a fade.
Meanwhile, George Kittle is currently the TE10 according to FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking). He has a delicious matchup against the Miami Dolphins, but he looked slow and sluggish in his first game back from major knee surgery. Expecting a Top 10 finish feels like a tall ask, even against a defense that’s a fish out of water on NFL football fields. Fade Kittle in Week 2.
On a more positive note, I could talk all day about Juwan Johnson, who exploded after a quiet start and starred down the stretch this past weekend. He’s a weekly starter until further notice. Jake Ferguson squares off against a Washington Commanders defense shredded by Dallas Goedert last weekend. Expect the Dallas Cowboys offense to shake off a slow start and take out their frustrations on a different division rival. Ferguson, as a beneficiary, should offer Top 10-12 numbers at the tight end position.
Finally, we offer our deep dives of the week for true sickos and those in larger leagues. Chig Okonkwo faces the same Dallas Cowboys defense that enabled the Isaiah Likely Overall TE1 breakout last week. Maybe it’s Chig’s turn? Given his upside, Okonkwo is a solid bet to comfortably outpace his TE26 consensus ranking.
Last but not least, many experts are predicting Romeo Doubs to see a sharp uptick in targets as a result of A.J. Brown‘s ankle injury. The star newcomer was placed on Injured Reserve and will miss a minimum of four games. Other analysts noted the unexpectedly high snap share enjoyed by Mack Hollins and foresee greater contributions from him instead. However, Drake Maye struggled, and quarterbacks in such situations often turn to their security blankets to get back on track. That’s where Hunter Henry steps in.
I don’t love the matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, Maye and Hunter have a close bond off the field as well as on it, as evidenced by Henry’s TE9 finish last season. Maye looked to the TE position for his first and only touchdown pass last week. The only real surprise: it found the hands of Eli Raridon instead of Henry. Those looking for a dart-throw streaming TE can look for Maye to re-establish his trust in Henry in Week 2. Especially in the red zone. –Drew DeLuca