Tier 10: The “Mustard Seed” Tier (Continued)
The path is there if you have the faith to hold on.
151. J.K. Dobbins, RB, DEN (RB51)
If J.K. Dobbins could just stay healthy, man, he’s a baller. His season was cut short again by a knee injury, but he was great in Denver. He ranked in the top 10 in yards per carry, rushing yards per game, explosive run rate, and missed tackles forced per attempt, and was third overall in explosive run rate. The Broncos’ backfield has snip-snapped all offseason, and Dobbins looked like the winner after re-signing in Denver. Then Sean Payton went and drafted Jonah Coleman. Coleman profiles as the most complete back in the room, yet somehow more people are talking about how this hurts the rookie than how it tanks Dobbins’ value. I liked Dobbins as a solid RB3/FLEX before the draft, but now we’re looking at a three-headed committee with a 27-year-old back who’s had more injuries than I’ve had bad fantasy takes. Dobbins is still talented, but unless his ADP falls off a cliff, he’s someone I’m probably avoiding in redraft.
152. Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF (WR56)
Khalil Shakir is the most Romeo Doubs receiver that ever James Jonesed. He has no business operating as the top option for Josh Allen, but that’s what he did once again in 2025. Shakir ranked first in yards after contact per reception with 3.61, but he profiles more as a complementary receiver. Buffalo indeed brought in help in DJ Moore, and Shakir remains a solid but boring WR3/4.
153. Tyler Allgeier, RB, ARI (RB52)
It might be worth stashing Tyler Allgeier or Trey Benson, considering Conner’s age and injury history. An injury or two can whittle this backfield down from four to two rather quickly. But it’s only worth the gamble if the cost is free.99.
154. RJ Harvey, RB, DEN (RB53)
J.K. Dobbins was once again proving people wrong by holding off rookie RJ Harvey and having an excellent season in Denver before a season-ending injury in Week 10. Harvey stepped in and had some success, but he wasn’t particularly efficient or explosive. Dobbins ended the season with 5.05 yards per carry (7th), 77.2 rushing yards per game (6th), and a 7.8% explosive run rate (3rd). Harvey’s stats were, um, something. He had 3.7 yards per carry (42nd), 31.8 rushing yards per game (45th), and a 2.7% explosive run rate (42nd). Dobbins is back, the Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle AAAAAND they drafted Jonah Coleman. The Felicio full fade of Harvey is on for 2026.
155. Sam Darnold, QB, SEA (QB24)
Sam Darnold proved his Minnesota resurgence wasn’t a fluke, finishing as QB14 in total points and leading the Seahawks to the #1 seed in the NFC. My gripe with Darnold from a fantasy perspective is that he’s not very good when he faces pressure, which is still true. But the Seahawks’ rebuilt offensive line made major strides and more often than not kept Darnold upright. Darnold faced pressure on just 31.7% of his dropbacks, fourth lowest among quarterbacks who played at least ten games. Darnold had some low-volume games that keep him from being a consistent starter, but he’s a borderline Superflex starter who’s perfect to pair with another quarterback to mix and match based on opponent.
156. Malik Willis, QB, MIA (QB25)
Malik Willis nearly led the Packers to an overtime victory over Chicago in relief of an injured Jordan Love and totaled 300 yards and three touchdowns in a spot start against the Ravens. Willis played himself into a starting job and a payday. The problem is that there’s nobody left in Miami. Plus, I’m not looking to invest in a QB who has five games with 10+ completions going into his fifth season. No thanks.
157. Jauan Jennings, WR, MIN (WR57)
After back-to-back WR3 seasons in San Fran, Jauan Jennings wound up in Minnesota. Honestly, I don’t value him much differently than in the past few seasons. The offense should be close to as potent as the Niners (at the very least, it’ll be better without #nine), but Jennings has a cloudier path to targets.
158. Dylan Sampson, RB, CLE (RB54)
The reincarnation of Duke Johnson with a ceiling of a bye week fill-in FLEX.
159. Mike Washington Jr, RB, LV (RB55)
Las Vegas drafted Mike Washington Jr. out of Arkansas in the fourth, not early enough that there’s any concern of Washington getting the majority of the touches, but enough that he’ll likely earn enough of a role to cap Jeanty’s ceiling. If it wasn’t the worst landing spot possible, it’s close. The combine riser could have potentially reached RB2 viability had he landed somewhere he’d get a consistent workload. New Raiders Head Coach Klint Kubiak does run a two-back system, but Washington will be the 1b to Ashton Jeanty for the foreseeable future. He’s capped at a high-end FLEX.
160. Stefon Diggs, WR, FA (WR58)
Stefon Diggs played 60% of offensive snaps in just three games this season but bounced back in New England to finish as a WR2. Diggs finished inside the top 10 in yards per route run and had 1,000 receiving yards for the seventh time in his career. But at age 33 at the start of the season, the upside is nonexistent. The self-proclaimed “best WR2 in the league” doesn’t have a team, so his rank is extremely fluid.
161. Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI (TE23)
Dallas Goedert bounced back bigly in 2025. He finished as TE6 in points per game, but was heavily reliant on a career-high 11 touchdown catches. Goedert is a solid borderline TE1, but his days of pushing for the top five are over.
162. Jalen McMillan, WR, TB (WR59)
Jalen McMillan missed a significant chunk of the season due to a preseason neck injury, but returned in Week 15 to lead the Bucs in yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception. With Evans leaving town to head to San Fran, McMillian is in line to play a major role in the Bucs offense in 2026. A jump into the top 125 is attainable.
163. De’Zhaun Stribling, WR, SF (WR60)
De’Zhaun Stribling is a smooth route runner with a long frame and enough downfield ball-tracking ability to flash real WR2 upside if he earns a featured role. He can separate naturally and win vertically, but the consistency still needs to catch up to the tools. The hands can get spotty, he does not always play to his size, and he is not a dynamic after-the-catch creator. With names like Denzel Boston, Antonio Williams, and Germie Bernard still on the board, the 49ers shockingly took Stribling with the first pick in the 2nd round of the draft. San Fran chose team need over talent, with Stribling a downfield threat who excels at separation. Stribling has WR2 potential if given a significant role, which could happen quickly if Mike Evans and/or Ricky Pearsall fail to stay on the field.
Tier 11: The “Mandela Effect” Tier
You knew they were good, but it’s like they never existed.
164. Jerry Jeudy, WR, CLE (WR61)
Outside of a random week with a touchdown, Jerry Jeudy was a complete non-factor for fantasy purposes and will continue to be until the Browns get their quarterback situation figured out. The additions of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston make Jeudy even more non-factor-er.
165. Adonai Mitchell, WR, NYJ (WR62)
AD Mitchell had a bit of a career revival less than two years into it with the Jets. Geno Smith signing in New York bodes well for Mitchell becoming a volatile FLEX option.
166. Jalen Coker, WR, CAR (WR63)
Cokeheads, unite! Or something like that. Jalen Coker was in line for a major role in the Panthers’ offense before a surprise injury sent him to the IR right before the season started. He returned in Week 7, but it was in Week 11 that he started cooking a little something. Coker averaged 10.2 points per game and ranked 11th in yards per target. Not necessarily mind-blowing numbers, but solid considering the play of Bryce Young and the limited targets available. He’s a perfect complement to Tetairoa McMillan, and with improved play from Bryce Young, he could provide some spike weeks.
167. Tre Harris, WR, LAC (WR64)
Tre Harris made a couple of flashy catches but was overall a non-factor in his rookie season. The Chargers had a lot of mouths to feed, and an offense like that let Justin Herbert get eaten for lunch, so the subpar rookie season doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Keenan Allen is a free agent, but even if he returns, he turns 63 this offseason and faded down the stretch in 2025. Harris is a nice post-hype sleeper who can likely be had for next to nothing. I’m willing to take a shot on any piece of a Mike McDaniel offense.
168. Troy Franklin, WR, DEN (WR65)
Troy Franklin appeared to have stolen the WR1 role from Courtland Sutton during a midseason stretch in which he ranked as WR8 from Weeks 7-11. Sutton reclaimed the role after the Broncos’ bye, but it was still an overall successful season for Franklin, finishing as the WR31 and tied for the fifth most red zone targets in the league. Sutton is creeping up in age, but with the addition of Waddle, Franklin’s chances of taking over as Denver’s WR1 are all but shot.
169. Jaylin Noel, WR, HOU (WR66)
Jaylin Noel had back-to-back 11-fantasy-point games in the middle of the season, popped up for a 14-point Week 17, and was never heard from again.
170. Isaac TeSlaa, WR, DET (WR67)
Isaac TeSlaa does nothing but catch touchdown passes, with six of his 16 receptions being scores. He’s fun to watch and a great story, but without knowing what type of offense the Lions will run, it’s hard to gauge the fantasy value of a team’s WR3 alongside an elite pass-catching tight end.
171. Fernando Mendoza, QB, LV (QB26)
Despite leading Indiana… yes, Indiana… to its first National Championship while also winning the Heisman Trophy, Fernando Mendoza profiles more as an efficient, game-managing quarterback than an electric playmaker. Don’t get me wrong, Mendoza is great. He offers a high floor with a high football IQ, quick decision-making, and spot-on accuracy, but his arm strength is meh. The Raiders brought in Khols Cash King Kirk Cousins mainly to mentor Mendoza, but they could opt to start the season with the old man under center. Mendoza’s the perfect fit for the Raiders from an NFL standpoint, but not someone I’m excited to draft in fantasy. He’ll be a late-round lottery ticket pick for those who wait on a quarterback in redraft. A decent comp for him in my eyes is Alex Smith (complimentary).
172. Bryce Young, QB, CAR (QB27)
Bryce Young is one of the oddest fantasy quarterbacks I’ve ever seen play the game. He had nine starts with one or fewer touchdown passes, including a couple of three-touchdown performances, including one game with over 400 passing yards! The Panthers have exercised his fifth-year option, so he’ll be back in Carolina at least for one more season. But I’m avoiding him in anything outside of Superflex leagues.
173. Michael Penix Jr., QB, ATL (QB28)
The Falcons hiring Kevin Stefanski seemed like great news for the long-term development of Michael Penix Jr. at first. But now Penix has a quarterback competition to pair with his recovery from a Week 11 Torn ACL if he wants to get back under center for the Falcons anytime soon. Tua Tagovailoa signed with Atlanta this offseason to fight for the starting job, but as of mid-July, Penix had only been cleared for individual drills and seven-on-seven work. Stefanski has made it known the starting job is up for grabs and likely will remain so throughout training camp and into the preseason, rendering both Penix and Tua nearly impossible to project for 2026. With Stefanski at the helm, whoever winds up starter is worth a look with the weapons in ATL. But it’ll be a while before we know who that is.
174. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, ATL (QB29)
I’m not as excited for Tua Tagovailoa in Atlanta as I am for Kyler Murray in Minnesota, but it’s a best-case scenario for Tua. Atlanta has the weapons, the coach, and the system built around a left-handed quarterback that could lead to a career revival. There are so many questions around Michael Penix that give Tua multiple routes to taking over at quarterback. He’ll be a favorite late-round pick of mine.
175. Malachi Fields, WR, NYG (WR68)
Malachi Fields is the prototypical X receiver: he has the size, strength, and deep-ball tracking skills to come down with the back-shoulder catch with his eyes closed. What keeps him from elite prospect status is his lack of initial burst off the line and struggles with separation. A solid pick for the Giants that I’m more excited about as a Giants fan than a fantasy football analyst. Fields profiles as the perfect complement to Malik Nabers, but the upside is limited on a likely run-first team and Nabers (and Isaiah Likely?) ahead of him in the pecking order.
176. Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, FA (WR69)
Deebo Samuel will spend just one season in Washington, but he did enough to show he can still be a versatile piece for any offense. Samuel scored 17 or more points in five games, but his fantasy value will depend heavily on his landing spot. In the right situation, he can be fantasy viable in 2026. The longer Deebo remains a free agent, the more concerned I am that he’ll have any fantasy value in 2026. He may have to settle for little to no role in an offense.
177. Rashid Shaheed, WR, SEA (WR70)
Rashid Shaheed hasn’t made much of a fantasy impact outside of special teams since heading to Seattle from New Orleans, but that’s not a surprise, as most receivers who change teams midseason don’t. Heading back to Seattle is a disappointing outcome for his fantasy potential, though.
178. Darius Slayton, WR, NYG (WR71)
Darius Slayton has had just one season with a yards per catch under 14.5, and should have a similar role/fantasy value as last season.
179. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF (WR72)
I’m not ready to give up on Brandon Aiyuk. I have no idea what happened between him and San Francisco or why he didn’t report, but if he suits up in 2026, I am more than willing to take a shot on a 27-year-old who finished in the top 15 in his last two full seasons.
180. Matthew Golden, WR, GB (WR73)
Matthew Golden is ranked here simply on his first-round pedigree and upside on a team that loves to throw the deep ball.
181. Romeo Doubs, WR, NE (WR74)
Romeo Doubs is the most Khalil Shakir receiver that ever James Jonesed. Doubs had some moments early in the 2025 season, but only scored over 10 points three times after Week 8. He’s a safe floor, low-ceiling player who will get two or three games over 15 points a season. Doubs signing with New England is a net-zero move for his fantasy value.
182. Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI (QB30)
The Cardinals committed to Jacoby Brissett as their starter in 2026, a surprising move but one that makes sense with the depth of the quarterback prospects in the 2027 class. Then Brissett decided it was time for a contract dispute in hopes of more guaranteed money. You read that right. Jacoby Brissett, contract dispute. The safe floor for Brissett started to get a little creaky with the Cardinals’ selection of Carson Beck, and the addition of Gardner Minshew made them even louder. When he’s under center, Brissett should once again be steady Eddie as a fantasy producer. But the contract dispute, paired with Beck almost surely seeing the field at some point this season, makes Brissett a riskier pick by the minute. Arizona needs to see if the third-rounder can show enough to be considered the team’s QB of the future before next year’s draft, which is expected to have a surplus of elite QB prospects, including some guy named Arch Manning.
183. LeQuint Allen Jr., RB, JAC (RB56)
So you’re telling me there’s a chance! The Jags didn’t add a back in the draft, and Allen is on the radar as a late-round handcuff pick.
184. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, WAS (RB57)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt had the entire fantasy community all hot and bothered last preseason and after Week 1 against the Giants, but he was, and I quote, “Not great, Bob.” JCM had three good games after Week 1: Week 5 against the Chargers, with two counter runs, terrible defense, and wide-open spaces. The other two were against the Giants and Cowboys, two of the worst run defenses in the entire league. I’m sorry, guys, but Bill ain’t it.
185. Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, JAC (RB58)
With the departure of Travis Etienne and no other additions to the backfield, Chris Rodriguez should have a role in the Jags offense from day one. Just not a large one.
186. Geno Smith, QB, NYJ (QB31)
Geno Smith is the best quarterback the Jets have had since… Geno Smith. A reunion that makes sense, but it’s not overly exciting. Smith should produce much closer to his Seattle numbers than Las Vegas. The Jets do have some potential in their pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson in the returning Mason Taylor and AD Mitchell, not to mention the addition of first-round picks TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr. (who the Jets traded up for). I’m avoiding in 1QB, but Smith could be a solid spot starter in good matchups.
187. Keaton Mitchell, RB, LAC (RB59)
Mike McDaniel apparently loves Keaton Mitchell.
That’s enough for me.
188. Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE (QB32)
It looked as if Shedeur Sanders would head into 2026 as the starter for the Browns, but if you put your ear to the ground, you can faintly hear the drum beat of Deshaun Watson back as QB1 for the Browns getting louder. As much of a dumpster fire as his career has become, he’s probably the more talented quarterback of the two. The Browns added two of the best receivers in this class with KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, so my interest in whoever winds up the Browns starter has doubled… from 0.5% to 1%. I don’t have much interest in either, other than late-round lottery tickets in Superflex leagues.
189. Omar Cooper Jr., WR, NYJ (WR75)
Get the ball into the hands of Omar Cooper Jr., and magic happens. Cooper has incredible hands and is arguably the most talented YAC machine in the class, thanks to his ability to make defenders miss. I still love the talent, but man, to land on the Jets is no bueno. Garrett Wilson will easily remain the WR1, TE phenom Kenyon Sadiq was also drafted by the Jets, and a 23-year-old AD Mitchell is still there to siphon targets. His explosiveness keeps him on the fantasy radar, but he’ll be extremely inconsistent, especially with the Jets’ quarterback situation.
190. Shedeur Sanders, QB, CLE (QB33)
See Watson, Deshaun.
191. Tyreek Hill, WR, FA (WR76)
It’s an uphill battle for Hill to return to fantasy relevance, as the soon-to-be 32-year-old is recovering from a dislocated knee that tore multiple ligaments. Hill was cut and is officially a free agent for the first time in his career, and could be so for a while as he recovers from last season’s gruesome injury. Recent rumors suggest there’s a real chance he misses all of 2026.
192. Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (RB60)
He’ll be back at some point in 2026, so if your league has IR spots, stash Zach Charbonnet. If they gave him the work last season with Kenneth Walker in town, he’ll certainly be involved with Price and co. in the backfield.
193. Aaron Rodgers, QB, PIT (QB34)
(づ｡◕‿‿◕｡)づ “Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh over the weekend of May 9th.”
(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻ “Aaron Rodgers doesn’t meet with the Steelers while in Pittsburgh.”
┬─┬ノ( º _ ºノ) “Aaron Rodgers is signing a one-year deal with the Steelers”.
He has better weapons in offseason acquisitions Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round rookie Germie Bernard, but Aaron Rodgers is nothing more than a desperation bye week fill-in. The Steelers will struggle to reach six wins, and I have reservations about Rodgers finishing the season as the team’s starter.
194. Chris Bell, WR, MIA (WR77)
One of the most physical receivers in the draft, Chris Bell out of Louisville is in the mold of an A.J. Brown physically but closer to the hands of Xavier Legette. Bell unfortunately tore his ACL in November and is set to miss most of the 2026 season. The tear was reportedly clean, which bodes well for his recovery timeline. Like every injured player ever, he’s reportedly “ahead of schedule.” It’s been all good news so far in his recovery, and word on the street (people still say that, right?) is he’ll be ready for training camp. How much he’s able to do and if he’ll be a full go at the start of the season is a different story, but he’s got a chip on his shoulder (people still say that, right?) from sliding to the third, and a depth chart barren of talent in front of him.
195. Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN (RB61)
It’s a crowded backfield, and Tyjae Spears has yet to have a single 100-yard rushing game in three seasons. But if the Titans offense improves and Spears earns meaningful touches, he could become a nice value.
196. J.J. McCarthy, QB, MIN (QB35)
The best thing that J.J. McCarthy did for us this season (and possibly his career) was give us the “Nine” meme.
197. Brian Robinson Jr., RB, ATL (RB62)
The tilt when I see TOUCHDOWN – B.Robinson (ATL) and realize it’s not Bijan is going to be the stuff of legends.
One of the top handcuffs in fantasy.
198. Chris Brazzell II, WR, CAR (WR78)
A burner with explosive playmaking ability, Chris Brazzell also brings an incredible 80″ wingspan to the table, and that’s about it. He doesn’t do much after contact, has a limited route tree, and has the frame of a dogwood. A third-round pick out of neighboring state Tennessee, Brazell is a field stretcher who complements Tetairoa McMillian perfectly. While he’s one of the most talented receivers in the class, his stock was capped by immaturity concerns. He gives Bryce Young another talented deep threat.
199. Carson Beck, QB, ARI (QB36)
Carson Beck is a pro-style pocket passer with good short and intermediate accuracy, solid processing, and enough poise to run an NFL offense. For fantasy, the ceiling is the question. He does not add much with his legs, and he is not the type of off-script creator who can turn broken plays into cheat-code points. In the right structure, he can be useful. Considering the holdout of Jacoby Brissett and the looming 2027 class, Beck likely sees some starts this season. Just don’t expect much.
200. Sean Tucker, RB, TB (RB63)
Sean Tucker stole the hearts of many as he stole the goal line role from Bucky Irving. Tucker scored eight total touchdowns on just 97 touches, and figures to remain involved in the offense again, even with Kenny Gainwell in town.