Chiefs @ Bills
Final Score: BUF 30 – KC 21
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter)
The matchup between these two teams is turning into a historic rivalry before our eyes – in their last four meetings between the regular season and post-season, all four of those matchups were decided by one possession. We all know the Chiefs have had the Bills’ number in the post-season, so it’s poetic that the Bills are the team to break the Chiefs’ unbeaten streak. Patrick Mahomes threw an interception on his first pass of the game, setting up the first of two touchdowns for James Cook. Later in the first, Mahomes fed Xavier Worthy for a full drive plus the TD to take a 7-6 lead due to a missed PAT from the Bills. This was the first of FOUR lead changes in the 2nd-quarter alone. Buffalo went into the half with a 16-14 lead, but both defenses kept the 3rd-quarter scoreless. Josh Allen extended their lead by connecting with Curtis Samuel, but Mahomes immediately responded with a drive capped by Noah Gray’s second TD of the game. The ensuing drive set up the play of the game: Buffalo facing a 4th-and-2 on Kansas City’s 25-yard line, up by 2 with 2:17 on the clock, and the Chiefs had two timeouts. Having learned their lesson from their previous contests, the Bills elected to go for it …and Josh Allen took it to the house, breaking three tackles along the way. You still never know, though, with Mahomes and 2 minutes, there might still be a chance. Alas, Mahomes’ day ended the way it started: with an INT.
Two Up
- Curtis Samuel – His season high in receptions and yards, plus his first touchdown of the year. He was explosive and elusive after his catches and may have earned himself a larger target share going forward.
- Xavier Worthy – The Chiefs’ third drive looked to be schemed entirely around him. He caught a 31-yarder in double coverage, a slant for six more, and then a shallow crosser he took for a 10-yard TD. He nearly brought in another 40-yard catch later on and was quiet the rest of the game, but it was promising to see the Chiefs make a concerted effort to get him involved beyond the occasional deep ball.
Two Down
- Travis Kelce – His worst stat line since Week 2: only 2 catches for 8 yards. We would’ve thought Mahomes would be looking his way a bunch in this matchup, but he saw 4 targets (really only 3 as one was a throwaway).
- Bills RBs – The Chiefs’ run defense is one of the best in the league, so it’s not very surprising that three backs combined for only 49 yards. The snap share that typically leans heavily to James Cook was spread more evenly, but the biggest concern is that their LT, Dion Dawkins, was injured late in the game – the severity of which is to be determined.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: 23/33, 196 Yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
It was a rough start to the game for Mahomes – throwing under pressure over the middle for an interception on his first pass attempt and second play of the game on the road. He was harassed by Buffalo’s from 7 for the majority of the game, being forced to take his check-down options or make some of his patented throws on the move. To his credit, he was able to evade all but two sacks, and he found his groove on their 3rd drive, where he went 6/6, including a 10-yard TD to Xavier Worthy. It was a back-and-forth day: either the pass rush got to him, affecting his throws, or he was as dialed-in as ever. He only took off scrambling twice, but both were called back on holding penalties, one of which would have been 18 yards. Outside of those two attempts, he always seems to find a man downfield to take a shot at, or he just throws it safely away. Kansas City only ran the ball on 17/52 plays, but Buffalo’s defense stepped up big in this one.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt: 14 Attempts, 60 Yards
Samaje Perine: 0 Attempts | 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 8 Yards
Carson Steele: 1 Attempt, 2 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards
Kareem Hunt has been the feature back since Isiah Pacheco has been out, and he had his longest rush of the season this week for 17 yards. Outside of that, it was a pretty typical day for the hard-nosed runner. His downhill style always seems to earn 3-6 yards behind one of the better offensive lines in the league. In the 2nd-quarter, the Chiefs were on Buffalo’s 2-yard line and looked like they were handing him the ball, but the play was called off by a timeout. They then ran an inside screen to Samaje Perine that Mahomes threw into the ground, and then the TD was thrown to Noah Gray. Hunt had another goal-line opportunity in the 4th quarter where he tried to leap over the linemen but was stopped for no gain. That TD also went to Gray on the following play. Perine was also on the field for the 2-minute drill when they were down by 9 at the end of the game, but he and Carson Steele split reps on a few plays sprinkled throughout the game. With Pacheco’s return on the horizon, expect Pacheco to split reps with Hunt almost exclusively.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Xavier Worthy: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 61 Yards, 1 TD | 1 Attempt, 7 Yards
Noah Gray: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 23 Yards, 2 TDs
DeAndre Hopkins: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 29 Yards
Travis Kelce: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 8 Yards
Mecole Hardman: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 12 Yards | 1 Attempt, 9 Yards
Justin Watson: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 26 Yards
Juju Smith-Shuster: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 8 Yards
Peyton Hendershot: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 11 Yards
Mike Caliendo: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards
Counting Carson Steele, ten different players caught passes from Mahomes this game. Early on, it seemed like Xavier Worthy was going to take over this game: his carry on an orbit reverse on the first drive and then 3 catches for 51 yards and a TD on the second drive. He also nearly brought in what could have been around a 40-yarder, but his second foot came down out of bounds, and then he disappeared the rest of the game. A vintage 1-handed grab from DeAndre Hopkins on his first catch of the day was pretty much his only highlight. He caught a slant and scramble drill pass, and his two incompletions came when Mahomes undrew threw him while getting hit or overthrew him in the endzone (but drew a DPI in the process). Noah Gray stole the show, but only because he got the two red zone TDs. Outside of that, the ball went to whoever was even a potential option while Mahomes was evading pressure. Travis Kelce was a nonfactor, running some decoy routes, but was also well-covered throughout the game.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen: 27/40 262 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT | 12 Attempts, 55 Yards, 1 TD
There’s no doubt this game was circled on his calendar all season, and it was noticeable from his decision-making he wanted to have himself a game. He started the game well-collected, finding his check-downs and taking his deep shots when the opportunities presented themselves. As the game progressed, though, he started to try to take off running more often or taking those deep shots despite having an open receiver for the more moderate gain. Nonetheless, he throws some of the prettiest deep balls in the league and connected on a good number of them. His lone interception came early in the game on a 4th down conversion attempt where he expected Dawson Knox to continue working to the sideline, but Knox was caught up with the defender and sat in the middle of the field. Keep an eye on the injury report, too, as Allen was grabbing at the wrist of his throwing hand after being taken to the ground late in the game. He stayed in, but he severely underthrew a shot at Quintin Morris that could have been a 40-yard gain or more. And oh yeah, with the game on the line, he kept the ball in his hands after rolling out, pump-faking a defender, then breaking three tackles en route to the game-sealing 25-yard rushing TD.
Running Back
James Cook: 9 Attempts, 20 Yards, 2 TDs | 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 7 Yards
Ty Johnson: 5 Attempts, 18 Yards | 1 Target, 0 Receptions
Ray Davis: 5 Attempts, 11 Yards
The two goal-line touchdowns (both in the first half) saved James Cook from what otherwise would have been a very disappointing game. His longest rush of the day went for only 6 yards, and all of his receptions were caught at the line of scrimmage for short or no gain. Cook started the season as the bell-cow, but he’s losing some significant snap share to both Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Davis came in primarily on 3rd downs as he’s a bit more of a brute runner than the other two backs, but the Chiefs defense bottled up this backfield all game long. It’s also a major concern for all three RBs if their key LT, Dion Dawkins, misses significant time with the undisclosed injury he suffered late in the game.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Khalil Shakir: 12 Targets, 8 Receptions, 70 Yards
Curtis Samuel: 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 58 Yards, 1 TD
Dawson Knox: 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 40 Yards
Amari Cooper: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 55 Yards
Mack Hollins: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 27 Yards
Zach Davidson: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards
Quintin Morris: 1 Target, 0 Receptions
With the most targets he’s seen all season, this was Khalil Shakir’s 5th straight game with 6 or more receptions. Most of his involvement is on short and quick screens due to his ability to run after the catch, but he also saw some deeper crossing routes and was targeted on a deep fade that Josh overthrew. He was also targeted in the endzone near the end of the first half, but Josh threw it well out of bounds due to the Bills being out of timeouts with limited time on the clock. Also emerging as a key piece of this offense in lieu of the injured Dalton Kincaid is Curtis Samuel. His 5 receptions for 58 yards are his best mark of the season, and he also scored his first TD this year. Almost all his catches were screens and shallow crossers, one of which he took 11 yards to the house, but he also brought in two deeper out routes and nearly hauled in a 1-hander that could’ve been for over 20 yards (drew a DPI in the process though). He showed some shiftiness after making his catches, and it would not be a surprise to see him more involved going forward. Amari Cooper started hot with a 30-yard breadbasket one-handed catch on the first drive but then slipped into the woodwork. He did catch another 25-yarder and was targeted on a deep fade that was well-defended, but Allen was spreading the ball around his pass catchers for most of the game. If you thought Dawson Knox was going to step up as the featured TE, your excuse could be that he got poked in the eye on the first drive. He played through it and brought in 3 of his next 5 targets, so it didn’t really have an effect, but feel free to say it did. Allen did look his way on a deep post route despite being triple-covered, but the ball was well overthrown. As a whole, this offense seems to run through screens to Shakir and Samuel, and then Allen takes an occasional shot over the top to whoever happens to be going deep.