Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
Final Score: Rams 28 – Patriots 22
Writer: Jason Wolf (J_Wolf_Picks on Twitter)
In what was rookie QB Drake Maye‘s best start of his young career, Maye was overall highly impressive; he was hitting his receivers with good timing in the short-intermediate passing game, and he was routinely making plays using his legs due to facing consistent pressure on the day. Maye led the Patriots on a 7-play, 77-yard TD-scoring drive to open up the scoring on the day, but they would only muster one more TD throughout the next three quarters, ultimately falling to the Rams due to self-inflicted wounds on offense (penalties/drops) as well as the defense’s inability to stop Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing game. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both suiting up for this one, the Patriots couldn’t match the offensive firepower of the Rams. Nacua did work in the first half, going for over 100 yards and a touchdown, while Kupp did most of his damage in the second half. The Rams only possessed the ball for 23 minutes while the offense took a little bit to get going, and the Patriots were pulling teeth on offense after their opening score, often dinking and dunking their way down the field. Stafford had numerous dimes on the day, connecting with his two WR1s on 13 of his 18 completions. The Patriots showed fight and some potential on offense, but they couldn’t quite keep up with the vintage Stafford performance that the Rams QB put on.
Two Up
- Drake Maye – Maye had his best day as a pro in this one, flashing his athleticism and ability to make plays when the pocket breaks, as well as his mental processing on his way to a career-best 282 passing yards and 2 TDs. Maye did have two turnovers, but his fumble could be excused due to the turnstile of an offensive line, and the interception can be chalked up to miscommunication with his receiver. Maye was impressively accurate, completing 75% of his passes (on 40 attempts!) and making off-schedule plays regularly. Maye had flashes of brilliance and gave more reasons to have hope if you’re a Patriots fan or skill position owner in fantasy.
- Entire Rams Offense – Matthew Stafford was firing on all cylinders with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the fold. I wanted to put Stafford here due to his near-flawless day passing the ball as he finished 18/27 with 295 yards and 4 TDs, good for an absurd 11 yards/attempt and 142.7 QBR. Stafford looks healthy, and now he has his two WR1s back, helping the Rams round into form as the playoff push starts to come into focus. With the offense being at full-strength, things are looking up for all the pieces of the Rams offense.
Three Down
- Kyren Williams – This game marks the third straight week that Kyren failed to find the end zone, a far cry from his start to the season, where he found the endzone in seven consecutive contests to open the season. Now Kyren looked great and was efficient as a runner, but he saw zero targets in the passing game seeing as he isn’t the most explosive runner, he is reliant on scoring for big fantasy days. Stafford throwing for four touchdowns while Kyren scored zero probably won’t happen again this year, but his three-game scoring drought coincides with the Rams getting healthier in the WR room, a concerning development for Kyren’s fantasy managers.
- Rhamondre Stevenson – Rhamondre has been the engine of the Patriots’ offense for the past couple of seasons, toting the ball 15-20+ times and picking up good yards in the process. Still, his efficiency is at an all-time low, and the offensive line is a sieve. The shoddy offensive line combined with Drake Maye’s tendency to avoid checking the ball down to RBs means that Stevenson’s production is going to have to come mainly from the ground game, a dubious proposition considering the state of the offensive line as well as the negative game scripts that the Patriots will most likely be seeing for the rest of the year.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford: 18/27, 295 Yards, 4 TD | 4 Rush, 0 Yards
Having Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back at full health makes a massive difference for Matthew Stafford. He was finding both guys with regularity and peppering them with targets all game. They were targeted on 19 of his 27 passes (70%) and accounted for over 77% of Stafford’s passing yard production as well (229 / 295). With both of Stafford’s WR1s back in the fold, the Rams offense looked as dangerous (if not more so) than they have all season. Stafford continued an excellent run of play over the last few weeks as over the past four games, Stafford has now thrown for 1,165 yards, 66% completion, and a 10:3 TD: INT split to go with a 103.2 QBR. On the Rams’ first drive, Stafford absolutely rifled the ball into the tightest of windows to Nacua, who took off for some nice YAC on his long gain of 37 on the day. His TD throw to Colby Parkinson (which was his first target in 3 games) was incredible! After a soft play-action rollout, Stafford rolled to his left and unleashed a quick throw off his back foot, which seemed destined to sail out of bounds, but it was perfectly lofted in the back corner of the endzone where Parkinson came down with it. The TD throw to Parkinson (Stafford’s fourth of the day) was just one of several pinpoint passes on the day. It was a vintage performance from Stafford as he looked comfortable and confident, operating with ease under a mostly clean pocket. The touch on the touchdown throw to Parkinson pass was simply unreal. On the second play of the second half, Stafford connected with Kupp for a 70-yard TD. On the play, Stafford was very well-protected as he faced essentially no pressure in the pocket before he delivered the ball to Kupp for the catch-and-run TD. Stafford delivered the ball juuust out of reach of the DB, who gambled on making a play on the ball and completely whiffed, falling down, allowing Kupp to jog into the endzone untouched on the 70-yard TD, 50 of which came after the catch. Stafford’s mental processing and ability to diagnose the blitz combined with his arm (which still has plenty of juice left) result in him operating at nearly peak powers right now. Of course, he is not at his peak physical level, but he is currently right now playing at a very high level. He is absolutely not afraid to take a hit if it means he’s buying time for his receiver to get open, and that showed in his success against the blitz today as he was unfazed in the face of pressure. Stafford against the blitz today: 12/17, 218 yards, 3 TD, 152.6 QBR. He was surgical, routinely making the Pats pay for bringing extra rushers. After throwing his fourth TD of the game, Stafford had thrown 4 TDs in his last 9 completions. Stafford is an expert at throwing balls to his receiver that hug the sideline, as well as back/corner endzone throws.
Running Back
Kyren Williams: 15 Rush, 86 Yards
Kyren Williams had a great real-life day on the ground, but in the fantasy world, his game was a little disappointing as he failed to find the endzone for the third week in a row. While he isn’t the most explosive or fastest runner, he is highly efficient and picks up positive yards consistently. His 18-yard run in this game was actually the longest run he’s had in over a month (longest since his 30-yard rush on 10/6 v. GB), but he did have four runs of 10+ yards, which is the most such runs he’s had in a single game so far this season. Kyren flashed his signature power/strength on his long gain of 18 yards on the day. He ran through a small hole up the middle for a couple of yards but then shrugged off contact and a hard tackle attempt to gain some nice YAC, a common occurrence when he’s running the ball. It is nearly impossible to bring him down using an arm tackle as he breaks through them like nothing. Kyren failed to record a catch for the second time this season, as he wasn’t targeted a single time out of the backfield. They definitely didn’t need him in the passing game in this one, but the zero targets were surely disappointing nonetheless, considering he was coming off a season-high of six targets last week. Kyren looked great running the ball, and the Rams were finding success with him, but between the aerial dominance the offense was displaying, the Rams just stuck with the passing game.
Blake Corum: 5 Rush, 21 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 7 Yards
Still operating as the clear #2 RB behind one of the most secure RB1s in the league, Blake Corum is still barely making an impact, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Cooper Kupp: 10 Targets, 6 Receptions, 106 Yards, 2 TD
One of my favorite things about watching Cooper Kupp, aside from admiring his route running, elite hands, and open-field prowess, is just the way he carries himself on the field. His body language is so underrated. After scoring his 69-yard TD (maybe one of the easiest after-the-catch TDs he’ll ever score), he just walked into the endzone and let the ball go nonchalantly. No endzone dance, no taunting, just acting like he’s been there before. You have to love that focus and mentality of only celebrating when the job is done. On Kupp’s first TD of the day, he found himself wide open in the endzone for a layup throw and catch for the score. His second one was a big play for the 69-yard score, which the Patriots’ DB helped Kupp tremendously on. Stafford’s ball was delivered perfectly to Kupp, forcing the DB into a split-second decision to make a play on the ball. But the ball was just out of reach, and the DB lost his gamble, falling down on the turf while failing to make a play on the ball as Kupp jogged in for an extra ~50 yards and the score. Kupp led the team in targets, but most of his production (outside of the long score) came off short passes and quick outs when Stafford faced pressure or needed just a few yard gain. This was Kupp’s first multi-TD game since 2022. Kupp opens the field for Puka, and Puka opens the field for Kupp, creating a rare situation where the Rams have two WR1s who cannot be doubled due to the other one.
Puka Nacua: 9 Targets, 7 Receptions, 123 Yards, TD
Puka Nacua saw nine targets, second only to Kupp, who saw 10. No other player outside of those two caught more than two balls. Nacua was a monster in the first half, going for 100+ yards and the highlight-reel score. Stafford’s touchdown to Puka was a thing of beauty. Puka came open in the endzone late, and Stafford delivered the ball right on the sideline, placing it where only Puka could make the play, and make the play he did as he made the SPECTACULAR diving catch to not only reach the ball but grab it and complete the process of the catch while flying out of bounds. Puka did a fantastic job of making sure he landed in bounds with his elbows hitting first before falling out of bounds for the score. On Puka’s long reception of 37 yards, he caught a laser from Stafford and took off running for the sideline, where he showed some impressive toughness to fight off a tackle attempt on the sideline and to remain in bounds while doing so, tight roping the sideline for a few extra yards. He was a zone beater all day, finding the soft spots in the zone with regularity. The Pats decided to play mostly zone, and Stafford made them pay for it with the vet correctly reading the defense and getting it to the right guy constantly (Puka or Kupp). He isn’t the most physically imposing receiver, but I saw him on more than one occasion giving his all in blocking downfield for Kyren and the run game. He also showed some surprising physicality when he lowered his pads and trucked a DB in the open field, yet again earning some YAC. Though he was dominant in the first half, he did essentially all of his damage in that half as he was held without a catch for the entire third quarter and didn’t secure another grab until his six-yard reception with under three minutes left in the game. The Patriots seemed to adjust in the second half and focused more of their defensive efforts on Puka to not let him run wild like he did in the first.
Demarcus Robinsons: 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 19 Yards
For some odd reason, unbeknownst to Patriots fans and the man himself, the Patriots had lockdown CB Christian Gonzalez glued to Demarcus Robinson for most of the game. While Kupp and Puka were running wild, scoring touchdowns and accumulating 230 receiving yards, Gonzalez put the clamps on Robinson, limiting him to just 19 yards on four targets. Mission accomplished, I guess? With Puka and Kupp firmly in the fold again, Robinson’s day was quiet, and that’s about what I would expect moving forward, save for one big play here or there, but good luck guessing when those will come while he splits a measly 23% target share among the rest of the Rams receivers not named Kupp + Nacua.
Tutu Atwell: 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 21 Yards
Tutu Atwell’s only catch of the day was a nice one, as he had to jump to reach the ball near the sideline and did a good job of keeping his feet in bounds while securing the ball. He has shown to be capable of stepping up in the absence of other receivers, but with their WR room healthy, there isn’t much ball to go around to Atwell as well.
Colby Parkinson: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 19 Yards
Colby Parkinson’s lone reception of the day was an absolute dime. Stafford placed the ball perfectly, and Parkinson did an excellent job of securing the ball over his shoulder and ensuring he got both feet inside the endzone for the score. It was Parkinson’s only target in the last three weeks, but he made it count with a great touchdown grab.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye: 30/40, 282 Yards, 2 TD, INT | 3 Carries, 27 Yards
It was another promising and impressive performance from Drake Maye in this one, as he flashed his talent + potential on numerous plays on the day and did a good job of trying to go blow-for-blow with one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. Maye had the best game of his career thus far. Even though he did commit two turnovers (INT/lost fumble), he was highly accurate as he completed 30 of 40 passes (75% completion rate), and he was consistently making plays. The turnovers weren’t all that bad either, from an individual standpoint, as his interception wasn’t entirely his fault. On 3rd & 13, with under two minutes in the game, Maye took a deep shot to DeMario Douglas, who never turned around to look for the ball. Douglas was running a vertical, and Maye thought he would stop between the LBs and safeties. The miscommunication was the cause of the INT, as the throw would have been on the money if Douglas had done what Maye anticipated. Ultimately, the mistake is on Maye, as he is the QB, but it wasn’t a bad throw in a vacuum. His fumble was even less due to his own mistakes, as he got absolutely leveled by a pass rusher who reached Maye completely untouched. The offensive line has been a problem all year, and this was no different as the rusher got home on a simple stunt completely untouched. Maye didn’t stand a chance as the rush got there in under two seconds. For a two-turnover day, it could have been a lot uglier.. the fumble was barely his fault, and the INT was only kinda-sorta his fault. Despite the two turnovers, this was probably one of the best rookie QB performances of the season. Maye made the improvisational plays that he is known for; he got rid of the ball when it was necessary, and he was highly accurate. He started the game by going 9/11 for 116 yards and a TD, opening the scoring to give the Patriots a 7-0 lead and a moment of hope for Patriots fans everywhere. One of the plays that Maye made that impressed me the most was his 28-yard pass to Douglas on the Patriots’ opening TD drive. On a 3rd & 7, the Rams called for a safety blitz, and the S had a clean lane to Maye, who recognized it very quickly and found the open Douglas for the big 28-yard catch and run. What was really impressive about this play was Maye’s processing speed in real-time and his ability to deliver the ball to Douglas accurately despite the collapsing pocket with defenders closing in on him. Plays like this show the talent on full display and make his potential clear as day. He is visibly improving from week to week, and that has to feel good for the Patriots, as they are seeing immediate results from their next franchise QB. He was under pressure a good amount during the game, but he did a good job handling it by using his legs to scramble and buy time while making quick, good reads on where to deliver the ball. He’s not always looking to sling it downfield for the big play, and I think that’s a good thing as he’s developing and trying to sustain positive momentum in his game. It’s also probably a self-preservation tactic, as the offensive line would get him injured if he sat in the pocket for too long. About half of his completions traveled five yards or less in the air. He’s limiting mistakes while doing his best to find the open man for a gain, however small. While it made minimal impact in the box score, one such impressive play was when Drake Maye hit Kayshon Boutte for a 10+ yard gain, which Maye released at a contorted arm angle while on the run, flashing some Stafford/Mahomes-esque ability on the play. Maye was moving to his left and threw to the middle of the field, side-arming the throw and still putting enough zip on the ball to squeeze it into a tight window to Boutte.
Notes
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One of Maye’s nicest plays of the day didn’t end up counting as he scrambled out of a collapsing pocket to his right and ended up throwing across his body to the middle of the field to Hunter Henry, who made an excellent leaping catch to come down with it. The play didn’t count due to penalty, but the quick decision to scramble + nice throw on the run was impressive nonetheless.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson: 20 Rush, 73 Yards | 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 16 Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson had exactly 20 carries for the third time in the last four weeks. While the volume has been there, efficiency has not been his forte this season, as he finished with a 3.7 YPC on the day, marking the fifth straight week with a sub-4.0 YPC. Rhamondre hasn’t finished with a 4+ YPC since Week 5 against Miami. In total, he saw 24 opportunities on the day, accruing “only” 89 total yards. Nothing to scoff at, but on 24 touches, you would hope to see a little more production. This lack of efficiency can, of course, be chalked up to the subpar (to put it nicely) run blocking that the O-line has been providing, and the problem isn’t going to be fixed this season. He was targeted four times in the passing game, coming down with all four receptions for only 16 yards. His usage is highly encouraging, though, as he again received 75% of the RB carry share, marking the third time in four weeks that that has been the case. He also saw both carries inside the 10-yard line, so at least he is not in Jerod Mayo’s dog house forced to watch Antonio Gibson work with a lack of results. Rhamondre’s fumble issues did momentarily pop up again in this game as he fumbled the ball behind the LOS but luckily recovered it for no loss. Even more fortunate for him, Rams Jared Verse was hit with a personal foul on the play, resulting in an automatic first down and wiping the fumble off the books and Rhamondre’s record.
Missed Opportunities
- Stevenson caught 69 passes on 88 targets in 2022, and when I’m watching the Patriots, I’m often wondering why they don’t get more creative or make more of an effort to get Rhamondre more in the mix in the passing game.
Antonio Gibson: 4 Rush, 18 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 2 Yards
JaMycal Hasty: 2 Rush, 2 Yards
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Kendrick Bourne: 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 70 Yards, TD
In what has been a tumultuous season for Kendrick Bourne, this game was the highlight of his 2024 campaign so far. In his first five games, Bourne totaled 70 yards through the air. In this game, he matched that number on just five targets, coming down with all five for the season-high 70 yards plus the touchdown to open up the scoring on the day. After a slow start to the year, which ultimately led to his benching against the Bears, Bourne bounced back in a big way in this one. While the Patriots released WR Tyquan Thornton and made KJ Osborn a healthy scratch, this game could be a sign of things to come for Bourne. Maye’s first TD went to Bourne, who did a great job of snagging the ball amidst tight coverage to pull in a great ball from Maye, who put it right on Bourne’s hands despite the tight window. While Bourne was only fourth on the team in targets, he led the team in receiving yards, and his reliable hands and vet presence could lead to him seeing a bigger role in a WR room full of question marks and young receivers.
Hunter Henry: 9 Targets, 6 Receptions, 63 Yards
Hunter Henry, somehow the leading receiver for the Patriots in every major statistical category (targets/receptions/yards), led the team in targets yet again, tallying nine on the day, while the next-highest receiver saw seven (Douglas). One of Henry’s nicest plays on the day, unfortunately, didn’t count as his high-pointed, leaping grab off Maye’s broken play didn’t count due to an offensive penalty. His six receptions and 63 yards marked the fourth time in five games that Henry has come down with 5+ receptions and at least 45+ yards. Henry has always been an athletic-for-his-build TE, and he brings a comforting veteran presence to the offense, allowing Maye to have a go-to receiver when he needs it the most (such as the big play that was made off a broken play which was unfortunately called back due to penalty). Henry’s usage rates are amongst some of the highest among TEs in the league.
DeMario Douglas: 7 Targets, 5 Receptions, 59 Yards
DeMario Douglas did most of his damage on the Patriots’ first TD-scoring drive as he caught two balls for 42 yards on the 7-play, 77-yard TD-scoring drive. He only accounted for 17 more yards throughout the rest of the game, but he was targeted a WR-leading seven times on the day. The only player who saw more targets was TE Hunter Henry, who is leading the Patriots in all pass-catching statistics. Watching him run his routes, he will certainly become a more polished route runner as he gains the reps, but he just “pops” off the screen with his speed and athleticism.
Missed Opportunities
- Could have potentially had a big gain on the Patriots’ last drive of the game, but miscommunication between him and Drake Maye led to Maye’s interception, as well as the Rams securing the game and running out the clock. Impossible to tell what happened other than there being a miscommunication somewhere, so it’s hard to put the blame solely on Pop Douglas’ shoulders.
Kayshon Boutte: 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 33 Yards
This was the fourth game in a row where Kayshon Boutte saw exactly six targets. This was only the second time coming down with four receptions on those targets, but his 33 yards on the day is good for the second-lowest amount of yards he has had in the past five weeks. He did take a very hard hit on one of his receptions that came on a 3rd & 1, but he did a nice job of absorbing the contact and making the catch. It was only 3rd & 1, but the concentration to hold on to the ball through the contact is a good sign for his future usage.
Missed Opportunities
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Dropped a 3rd down pass that would have put the Patriots in FG position range. The pass was right on the money, but the ball slipped right through Boutte’s hands. That is a play he has to make for the sake of his team, Maye, and himself if he wants to see more balls come his way.
Austin Hooper: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 35 Yards