What We Saw: Week 15

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Jets @ Dolphins

Final Score: Dolphins 30, Jets 0

Writer: Jason Wolf (J_Wolf_Picks on Twitter)

In a week full of blowouts, this was certainly one of the blowiest as the New York Jets failed to put a single point up on the board. The Jets only gained 104 total yards of offense (in 2023!) and didn’t take a single snap in the opponent’s redzone. Tua Tagovailoa dissected the Jets like a frog in high school biology class as he completed 21/24 passes for an efficient 224 yards while Miami Dolphins’ RB Raheem Mostert notched his 19th and 20th touchdowns, both new Dolphins’ franchise records. Zach Wilson lasted all of one half before he was pulled from the game (this time due to injury) for Trevor Siemian, who though uninspiring, was somehow an improvement from Wilson. It didn’t matter who played QB for the Jets though as New York couldn’t get anything going on the ground or in the air as they were thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball.

Two Up

Jaylen Waddle – With Tyreek Hill inactive, Jaylen Waddle did his best Tyreek impression by racking up over 140 receiving yards as well as a TD on a long bomb while seeing double the targets (9) as the next highest receiver (4). Despite facing the extra defensive attention, Waddle dominated from start to finish (other than the short period of time where he left the game due to an injury scare). Concerns about Waddle producing without the threat that Tyreek Hill brings are clearly overblown as Waddle is capable of doing work at all areas of the field and the ingenuity of Mike McDaniel ensures that Waddle will always get his (when Tyreek is inactive).
Tua Tagovailoa – Going into this game, there were some out there (it’s me, I’m some out there) who thought that down his best offensive weapon and going against an “elite” defense, that Tua Tagovailoa might struggle against the Jets. Down Tyreek Hill and starting C Connor Williams, Tua was unfazed as he completely shredded the Jets secondary to the tune of a 88% completion rate and over a 9+ YPA. Tua’s raw stats don’t do this performance justice as he was almost perfect on the day, as he led the offense up and down the field seemingly at will.

Two Down

Zach Wilson – Yikes. Zach Wilson was 4/11 with a sub-3.0 YPA before he was forced out of the game due to a concussion (which at the time was ruled as dehydration) before halftime. Wilson also gifted the Dolphins their first touchdown of the day after he fumbled within his own 10 yard line. Wilson’s response to the pressure was inexcusable, directly leading to a sack + fumble that was completely unnecessary. Wilson has plenty of arm talent but he regularly makes disastrous mistakes resulting in awful turnovers and struggles with accuracy issues. There have been flashes here and there but his opportunities as a starting QB are surely numbered as he is incapable of elevating an offense or even reliably managing a game effectively.
Entire Jets Offense – The offense seemed to have a little more juice behind it with Trevor Siemian behind center but to quote a legend, “in the end, it doesn’t even matter” because the Jets’ offense is a disaster regardless of who is under center. Even a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers might not have been enough to overcome the overall lack of offensive talent and a sieve for an offensive line. Between the inability to pass protect and reliably negative game scripts, no one on the Jets is a comfortable start. No one can reliably deliver the ball to the ultra-talented Garrett Wilson and the offensive line rarely affords Breece Hall the opportunities to best utilize his skills either.

New York Jets

Quarterback

Zach Wilson: 4/11, 26 Yards | 0 Carries, 0 Yards, 1 Fumble (Lost)

Jets QB Zach Wilson almost made it through the first half without being benched before he was knocked out of the game due to suffering a concussion, which at the time, was believed to be dehydration. Before exiting, Wilson was downright awful as he completed less than 40% of his passes for a paltry sub-3 YPA. Wilson also committed a catastrophic error on a 1st & 10 sack + fumble deep in Jets territory which turned into a free Dolphins TD on the other end. Wilson’s pocket awareness and performance under pressure are big factors as to why he struggles at times and this was the case for him today as he was routinely under siege, sacked four times in less than one full half of play. On Wilson’s crucial first quarter fumble, he could have easily given himself up without so much as taking a hit as he had time to go down on his own. He also could have stepped up and through the pressure and gotten rid of the ball for an incomplete. Instead, with the score 0-0 and on a first down, Wilson not only took the sack, but coughed the ball up as well due to his poor reaction to the incoming pressure.

Notes

Four sacks taken in less than a half vs. two sacks taken by Siemian is indicative of Wilson’s struggles in operating under / around pressure, which too often lead to backbreaking mistakes.

Trevor Siemian: 14/26, 110 Yards, 2 INT | 0 Carries, 0 Yards, 1 Fumble (Lost)

New York Jets’ third-string QB Trevor Siemian came into the game in relief of Zach Wilson who picked up a concussion in the first half. Siemian, though painfully mediocre, was a clear improvement over Wilson as he was actually attempting to move the ball upfield and was able to at least hit the wide open guys when given time. When facing a clean pocket, Siemian hit his receivers in stride numerous times resulting in nice gains after the catch. Unfortunately for Siemian, a clean pocket was not something that was given all too often as he was dealing with pressure and little time to let routes develop. When asked to make plays outside of the pocket or to improvise, Siemian was less accurate and effective, which is reasonable from a third-string QB.

Notes

Siemian’s day might look even worse than Zach Wilson’s on the box score but he was much better on the eye test.
Siemian also suffers from poor pocket awareness as his fumble was completely avoidable. Instead of stepping up in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield, Siemian didn’t sense the pressure coming from behind and was stripped by Bradley Chubb. More quality QB’s would have stepped up and made a throw or taken off for a scramble.
Siemian’s first interception wasn’t a terrible decision but rather a poorly executed deep throw. With pressure closing in, Siemian launched a prayer off his back foot when better QB’s would have stepped up into the throw, knowing very well they might be taking a hit right after. Siemian’s ball stood no chance however as it was easily picked off.
His second interception came in deep garbage time on a 4th & 10 from New York territory. The interception lowered his rate and looks bad on the stat sheet but it was really just as good as a punt.

Running Back

Breece Hall: 6 Carries, 12 Yards | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 6 Yards

Breece Hall never stood a chance in this one as other than his first carry which went for five yards (his longest rush of the day), he was set up for failure pretty much the entire game. Hall’s second carry was a TFL due to poor blocking and he received a pity carry on a 3rd & 24 with the Jets backed up in their own territory. Between the poor run blocking offensive line and the Jets playing behind and in a hole the entire game, Breece just wasn’t given a chance to produce. Could the Jets do a better job of putting the ball in their playmakers’ hands in advantageous situations? Absolutely. Do they? Absolutely not. Just as is the case with star WR Garrett Wilson, the Jets simply aren’t equipped to get the most out of their offensive playmakers (at least until Aaron Rodgers is under center).

Notes

Even when the game script is neutral, Hall’s upside + efficiency are capped due to the poor run blocking from the offensive line.
Hall is one of the Jets’ only offensive weapons yet they show no creativity in getting him the ball in space.

Israel Abanikanda: 4 Carries, 8 Yards | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 11 Yards

Israel Abanikanda saw all of his rushes deep into garbage time with the Jets already down 27 so don’t let the workload split between him and Breece Hall fool you. Though Abanikanda is no threat to Hall’s playing time, he did have a nice play on a well-executed RB screen where he did a good job of following his blocks and navigating his way through traffic for the first down.

Dalvin Cook: 1 Carry, 4 Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 6 Yards

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Garrett Wilson: 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 29 Yards

Coming off the big win last week where Garrett Wilson was targeted a season-high 14 times and the offense looked the best it had in a while, it is unfathomable how Wilson only saw four targets in this one. The four targets were a season-low for Wilson; a frustrating outcome for fantasy managers and Garrett Wilson alike, as he could be seen expressing his frustrations to Aaron Rodgers on the Jets sideline. Every good receiver wants the ball and Wilson is no different, which is why it is frustrating to see his talents being wasted away in this poor scheme / fit. There was no creativity in Wilson’s route tree. In a game where you have Mike McDaniel scheming up plays for his guys on the other side, the lack of creativity on the Jets side was even more abundantly obvious.

Notes

Went the first 25+ minutes without seeing a target

Missed Opportunities

Garrett Wilson’s talents on this Jets team

Xavier Gipson: 6 Targets, 2 Receptions, 29 Yards

Out-targeting every receiver on the day, Xavier Gipson only managed to come down with two out of six targets but he did look particularly on his 20+ yard catch and run where he was hit perfectly in stride on a slant route and got another 10+ yards by outrunning the defender.

Allen Lazard: 6 Targets, 3 Receptions, 21 Yards

As has been the case all season, Allen Lazard’s production was inefficient and disappointing.

Tyler Conklin: 7 Targets, 4 Receptions, 18 Yards

Probably the closest thing the Jets have to a WR2, Tyler Conklin is usually good to rack up some targets in this offense as a safety valve for whichever unfortunate QB gets the nod that day. Though Conklin is limited in his route running ability and physical tools, he has a reliable set of hands and is one of the more consistent options for the Jets as evidenced by his targets and receptions. What does that mean for fantsay? Essentially nothing.

Jeremy Ruckert: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 16 Yards

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa: 21/24, 224 Yards, TD | 0 Carries, 0 Yards

So much for the “elite” Jets defense. Tua Tagovailoa absolutely shredded the Jets defense on his way to completing a ridiculous 90% of his passes for an over 9 YPA on 21/24 passing. Tua had it going on all levels, connecting with Jaylen Waddle in the second and third levels of the field all day. Tua also displayed his pinpoint perfect accuracy on numerous throws, often squeezing the ball in to the tightest of spaces in order to get it to his man. One such instance of this was when he threaded the needle perfectly to Durham Smythe on a 3rd down in the first quarter, just fitting the ball in between multiple defenders right into the numbers of Smythe. Tua displayed his next level accuracy on throws all over the field but what was particularly impressive was how he would gladly take what the defense gave him. Tua did an excellent job of diagnosing and reacting to the defense and it showed in how fast he was able to get rid of the ball to the open man, which Tua found reguarly in rhythm.

Notes

Decisive with the ball. When you see him release it quickly, it’s almost guaranteed to be a positive play.
Tua is fearless with his passing as his pinpoint accuracy gives him the confidence to try and make any throw.
Impressive ability to read + diagnose defensive coverages. Must have been frustrating for the Jets and their fans to watch Tua so (seemingly) effortlessly pick apart their defense.

Mike White: 2/2, 4 Yards | 2 Carries, -2 Yards

Running Back

Raheem Mostert: 15 Carries, 42 Yards, 2 TD | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 1 Yard

Raheem Mostert certainly has had more impressive days in the box score, especially when it comes to efficiency. However, the Dolphins really didn’t need him to do much in this one as Miami was able to do whatever they wanted through the air. Mostert was gifted the first TD of the day when Zach Wilson turned the ball over deep in Jets territory. While Mostert scoring short touchdowns is certainly routine at this point, what’s notable is the level of commitment that Miami has to Mostert in the redzone and goal-to-go situations. Immediately after Wilson’s fumble, Miami gave the ball to Mostert three consecutive times on goal-to-go. Most RB’s get one, maybe two chances to convert a short-yardage TD but Miami feeds Mostert the ball here like their lives depend on it.

Notes

Mostert scored his 19th and 20th touchdowns of the season, establishing a new Dolphins’ franchise record in the process.
Mostert’s speed around the edge might be unmatched among RB’s in the NFL.

De’Von Achane: 9 Carries, 32 Yards | 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 30 Yards

De’Von Achane wasn’t used all that much in this one; probably due to him working his way back from injury as well as the Dolphins absolutely dismantling the Jets from start to finish, rendering Achane’s services unnecessary. Miami still gave Achane some touches to get back in the swing of things and he looked mostly good with the ball. He didn’t make much noise on the ground but Achane looked as dangerous as ever catching the ball out of the backfield.

Notes

Adding Achane’s open field prowess and pass-catching ability into the fold of this offense is a scary thought for opposing defenses.

Jeff Wilson Jr.: 2 Carries, 5 Yards | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 1 Yard

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Jaylen Waddle: 9 Targets, 8 Receptions, 142 Yards, TD

With Tyreek Hill inactive for Week 15, Jaylen Waddle filled in his place admirably. Waddle even did his best Tyreek impersonation when he took the top off the defense and burned the DB on his way to a 60 yard TD. HC Mike McDaniel did an excellent job (as always) scheming the offense around getting his most dangerous playmakers the ball in space as Waddle was running free all over the field. The passing offense was seemingly running through Waddle as he was targeted on nearly 40% of Tua Tagovailoa‘s passes. Waddle was making plays deep down the field, on crossing routes down the middle as well as doing some of his damage catching balls around the line of scrimmage and taking them for good chunks of YAC.

Notes

Waddle’s day likely could have been bigger had he not been forced out for a portion of the contest after he suffered a minor chest injury.
Was hyper-efficient, coming down with eight receptions on nine targets as he put to bed any notions that he may not be able to produce when the defense focuses on him.
Flashed his moves in the open field as he used his shiftiness to get around defenders after the catch.
Waddle freed himself up on his llong TD catch using a slick double move off the LOS that made the defender hesitate for just long enough to gain a step on him.
Shows nice toughness on catches down the middle as he snags balls through contact and isn’t afraid to initiate contact either.

Durham Smythe: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 32 Yards

Durham Smythe operated as the Dolphins’ #2 guy on the day, and Smythe responded nicely by hauling in all four of his targets for a nifty 32 yards. Smythe displayed some nice hands on his receptions as he made a catch in traffic and snagged a 4th down reception to keep the chains moving. Smythe’s role has been gradually increasing as the year has gone on and is starting to really come along as a receiving threat out of the TE position, something the Dolphins have been lacking since prime Mike Gesicki days.

Notes