What We Saw: Week 15

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Cowboys @ Bills

Final Score: Buffalo 31, Dallas 10

Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)

The Cowboys entered this game vying for playoff positioning while the Bills came in just trying to qualify for the playoffs. Today’s forecast called for varying levels of rain setting the scene for this one. This one was circled on the calendar from the start of the season as it was a chance to see the Diggs brothers line up across the line of scrimmage from each other all game long. Sadly CB Trevon Diggs suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year so we would not get to see him line up against his older brother WR Stefon Diggs in man coverage.

Turns out the Cowboys are their own worst enemy as each drive for the Bills was extended by personal fouls including two plays where the drive would have resulted in a punt. This allowed the Bills to run up the score 21-3 going into the half. With injuries to the Dallas run defense that already came into this game banged up, things are looking bleak as they have now allowed their first 100-yard rusher in James Cook in one half since week 15 last year.

The skies would open up to start the second half but the weather’s flood of rain was taking a back seat to the flood of the Buffalo pass rushers getting some quality face time with Dak Prescott. What a difference momentum swings are when you allow a team to score three touchdowns off drive-extending penalties early on. Buffalo cruised to victory on the back of their run blocking in this one with the only Dallas touchdown coming in garbage time before the clock hit all zeros.

Football is family. ❤️💙@Fieldsheer | #DALvsBUF pic.twitter.com/lPrcGA0LFT

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 17, 2023

Three Up

James Cook – Over 200 total yards and multiple touchdowns, this was a massive playoff boost for managers or a thing to fear if you’re going against him.
Buffalo Run Blocking – the most combined yards on the ground since 2016 with 266 team rushing yards
CeeDee Lamb – was about to make the other list until the final drive for the Cowboys. They ended the day with 7 receptions and a rushing touchdown

Three Down

Dalton Kincaid – the rookie diamond in the rough at tight end had a streak of 5+ receptions in every game since he missed week 6 but put up a donut today on a team that won handily
Tony Pollard – yet again robbed of a rush attempt inside the 5-yard line in a continued point of frustration for his managers this season
Dak Prescott – Prescott might be the reason you made it to the playoffs this season. He is going to be one of the reasons a lot of his managers exit the playoffs early this season.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott: 21/ 34, 134 yards, INT | 4 carries, 27 yards

Prescott’s first attempt was a very deep shot (50 yards) down the middle of the field looking to get the pace going early. The very next play featured Prescott using his legs to pick up the first down showing he is not afraid to get out and punish the Bills with his legs. However, it all came to a halt as Dallas forced themselves into a long-yardage situation early on with penalties and Buffalo punished them with a drive-ending sack on third down. This would set the tone for the offense the rest of the day as five of their first six drives would end in a punt. The offense wasn’t done any favors either by their defense and the lack of stops is resulting in limited opportunities for Dallas to get something going offensively. Prescott entered halftime with less than 50 passing yards, his fewest in a first half since 2018.

It was announced after halftime that pro-bowl guard Zack Martin was in street clothes and his day was done. When it rains, it pours and it’s starting to rain. Literally. And with that, both Cowboys’ offensive drives in the third quarter ended in drive-killing sacks. The first drive went for a measly 11 yards, the second went backward -8 overall yards. When Dallas finally started putting a drive together in the fourth quarter, there was some miscommunication on a route and Prescott threw a ball that soared over the head of Brandin Cooks but well shy of CeeDee Lamb clean into the safety for the interception. This was after two other passes that were nearly intercepted looked like they were thrown to the defender instead of the receiver. They would get another shot at the end executing the hurry-up no-huddle offense but at that point, it was too little far too late.

Notes

92 yards total offense through three quarters the fewest for a Dallas offense since 2010
Breaks his streak of games with multiple touchdown passes
First time since week one he’s been held without a single touchdown
Only 1 completion went for more than 10 air yards.
0 for 2 on the deep ball including a 50-yard attempt to Cooks

Missed Opportunities

After getting to a 2nd and 1 at the Buffalo 11-yard line, settles for a field goal

The @BuffaloBills defense is having a DAY.

📺: #DALvsBUF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/jaiAKGIoun

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023

Running Back

Tony Pollard: 11, 52 yards, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 5 yards

The first play of the game for Dallas was a Pollard carry right up the middle for five yards hopefully setting the tone in this game for Pollard’s managers. (Spoiler- it was not) The Dallas offense got off to a slow start limiting his opportunities until the second quarter where he would take them into the red zone on three straight carries. Pollard got a few chunk plays as the Bills tried to go lighter up front to prevent big plays and keep everything in front of them. However, the time of possession was already lopsided in the first half limiting Pollard’s opportunities.

Things would only snowball out of control in the second half as his Pro Bowl guard was ruled out which was the one positive for the Cowboys offense and the holes he created in the running game. Without even that going for them, Pollard would only find two more carries in the second half before their final no-huddle hurry-up garbage time drive. In that drive, he would only see two more additional carries to round out his day. Dallas just faced too many third and longs early in drives limiting the workload for their starting back.

Notes

Only one attempt to get outside in space
Every other attempt went between the tackles
Longest rush was up the middle for 11 yards

Missed Opportunities

Another rushing touchdown from inside the 3-yard line went to someone else

Rico Dowdle: 3 carries, 4 yards | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 8 yards

Wide Receiver/Tight End

CeeDee Lamb: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 53 yards | 1 carry, 3 yards, TD

His first catch came on a contested grab through double coverage as the Bills were not letting him get anything easy early on. He would not see another target until the second quarter where he would convert a third down on a deep corner cut to take Dallas across midfield into Bills territory. Lamb only had three receptions for 33 yards in the first half with 16 of them coming on one play. With the score as lopsided as it was, Buffalo was hanging two safeties deep on every play keeping a lid on every passing attempt and forcing Dallas to go short or run the ball. The broadcast later reviewed the routes in the fourth quarter saying every time he turns out of a break, there’s a zone defender right next to him with nowhere for Prescott to go.

Lamb would bail out his managers with three additional receptions in the final minutes on their last drive capping it off with a 3-yard jet sweep for the team’s only touchdown of the game.

Notes

9 of his 10 targets came from routes out of the slot.
Only reception starting from the right side of the field came from lining up out wide
The least amount of motion plays for Lamb

Missed Opportunities

Deep shot over the middle in the fourth quarter having beat his man, but well defended by the safety over the top

Jake Ferguson: 6 receptions for 44 yards on 8 targets

His first target of the game was tipped at the line in the middle of the second quarter. The slow start for the offense and the heavier reliance on the run game did not offer a lot of non-blocking opportunities for Ferguson. He wouldn’t register his first reception until the second half and only saw a major uptick in target count on the final drive for the offense in the fourth quarter where he would bring in three receptions on that drive for 28 of his 44 yards. Before that, he was only seeing one target per drive.

Brandin Cooks: 2 receptions for 10 yards on 6 targets

Only one reception in the first half with a quick out for only two yards after his first target went incomplete with the massive deep throw to him on the first drive. Cooks is primarily a speed receiver used to take the top off a defense and with the Bills sending two safeties deep on every dropback, it was severely limiting opportunities for him to impact the game. This trend would continue for the entire game as he would get his second reception right after halftime and only see two more short targets for the rest of the game.

Notes

Had a rather impressive pass defense against a would-be interception that the defensive back got both his hands on the ball in his chest

Missed Opportunities

The second play of the first drive is a 50-yard deep shot that was just overthrown
Credited as the intended target on the Prescott interception

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen: 7 of 15 passing for 94 yards and 1 Touchdown, 8 carries for 24 yards and 1 Touchdown

“I felt like the kid with the class project that didn’t do anything and still got an A” -Josh Allen in his post game interview

How many people saw this stat line and rushed to see if their star QB got hurt? In this crazy game, Allen would start the game out 3 for 9 passing in the first quarter alone as drops and coverage were making it difficult for him to get the ball to anyone that wasn’t Stefon Diggs. It would turn out that it wouldn’t matter as Buffalo’s early game script to attack with the ground game was going so well they were not using the passing game and Allen would only attempt six more passes for the rest of the game. Fortunately for fantasy managers, Allen is also a pretty strong runner and got in on the action by scoring the team’s third touchdown himself rushing up the middle for one yard. Twelve of their 14-play drive to open the second half were rushing plays signaling the end of any potential fantasy points through the air for Allen managers. He would later exit the game for the fourth quarter with the game out of hand to get some rest.

Notes

Passed Murray at 9 games and became the first QB in the NFL to have 10 games in a single season with both a passing AND rushing touchdown
0 for 1 on the deep ball
3 of his 7 completions went for more than 10 air yards
75% accuracy throwing to the right side of the field including his lone touchdown completion

Missed Opportunities

Evaded through two different pass rush would-be sacks on the same play but was whistled dead upon breaking out of the second tackle and was credited as sacked despite not being tackled

A thing of beauty. 🤩

📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/MshRvilZxU

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 17, 2023

Running Back

Heard from the broadcast: “They’ve run it now nine times in a row and if you’re the Bills, why wouldn’t you? The Cowboys have not shown they’re able to stop it.” The Bills scripted their start to this game attacking the Cowboys rush defense with a 12-play drive with 9 of those plays being rushes split between four different ball carriers. After finding great success, they decided to just stick to that script for the rest of the game. If it ain’t broke…

James Cook: 25 carries, 179 yards, TD | 3 targets, 2 receptions, 42 yards

The first drive featured an early dose of Cook cutting through the line of scrimmage gashing the Cowboys on five carries for 34 yards. Two drives later they went with another three straight carries for Cook but didn’t go for much forcing them to turn to the pass game. After that fell short, the Bills went to punt but were bailed out by a roughing of the kicker penalty for a new set of downs, and the game just SHIFTED. From there on out, Cooks looked unstoppable. On the following second down, he took his first reception down the sideline for a 24-yard pickup to convert the first down. A couple of plays after that one, he would run a deep corner route out of the backfield to get open for the 18-yard touchdown. The Bills were now dominating the line of scrimmage with the run attack and Cook was gashing Dallas for chunk yards as he eclipsed 100 yards averaging 7 YPC before halftime.

Buffalo would open up the second half with 12 of their 14 plays staying on the ground with Cook picking up five of those carries. The floodgates were now open and James Cook was a tsunami with the ball just absolutely crushing it with over 200 total yards and multiple touchdowns now maintaining his 7 YPC for the entire game on an absurd 25 carries. When was the last time you remember the Bills of all teams showing that they could run at will? Against a defense that hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season long even?

Notes

Now has three touchdown receptions in his last four games
Another game in his ongoing streak of 100+ total yards since the first week of November
First time in 10 years Dallas has allowed one player to gain 200 total yards and 2 touchdowns
The longest runs came going outside and around the line pulling lineman out to dominate their blocking assignments
Most rushing yards by a Bills player since Jackson in 2010

Missed Opportunities

After gashing the defense to start the game and getting them deep into the red zone, he is rotated out for Murray to get the goal-line carry for a touchdown
Another 20-yard run through the red zone down to the one only to have Murray come in for the goal line carry
Bobbled what would have been his second touchdown reception falling incomplete

Cooking with gas. 🔥

📺: @NFLonFOX #ProBowlVote | @thegreat__4 pic.twitter.com/DfwZ3ba9JB

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 17, 2023

Latavius Murray: 5 carries, 11 yards, TD

Murray’s first play in the game came at the 2-yard line where he punched it in for the touchdown after Cook did a lot of the heavy lifting to get them into the red zone. Additional work came in the fourth quarter when the starters were cycled out of the game.

Notes

Murray’s two carries in the first half both came inside the 2-yard line

Ty Johnson: 9 carries, 54 yards, 1 Fumble (recovered) | target, reception, 4 yards

Johnson’s main role was to spell Cook for a rest and with the dominance on the ground, he is finding a lot of usage. Eventually, he just took over for Cook outright in the fourth quarter.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Stefon Diggs: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 48 yards

This game started out promising for Diggs’ managers. Diggs caught a 6-yard pass and then followed it up with an 18-yard reception on the first drive of the game. But then a funny thing happened: the Bills just started running it wherever they wanted as they pleased. After the first quarter ended, Allen would only complete four additional passes for the rest of the entire game. Diggs would catch one more pass in the middle of the second quarter and not see another target until the start of the fourth quarter. After bringing that one in for a reception, the starters came out with the game in hand and that would end his day with 50% of his receptions coming in the first quarter. It’s crazy, I mean when was the last time Josh freakin’ Allen completed single-digit passes for less than 100 yards? (The question was rhetorical, but it was the 2019 final regular season game vs the Jets where they rested their starters)

Notes

25 of his 48 yards came after the catch
Most of his yards came on two crossing routes going for 17 and 18 yards respectively
Ridiculous one-handed catch in wet conditions

Stefon Diggs ‼️ One-handed in the rain

📺: #DALvsBUF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/BSaZlBVQ5X

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023

Dalton Kincaid: 2 targets

His two targets came in the first quarter in which he dropped both of them. The broadcast made a big spectacle about how he was wearing rain gloves which aren’t very effective when it’s not raining. So they showed him switching gloves after his second drop only to go on and not get a single target the rest of the game. For reasons mentioned above in the Diggs section combined with the broadcast overusing the term ‘Jumbo Package’ used frequently in the second half with the Bills’ absurd 49 rushing attempts this game, there was not a lot of opportunity in this one for a receiving tight end.

Missed Opportunities

Both his targets were accurate balls that he dropped

Gabe Davis: 1 target

He had a deep ball thrown his way towards the end of the first quarter that was off-target. The same reasons as above apply here and even more so as the role of Davis is to blow the top off a defense and when you’re already up by so much early on you’re just trying to run out the clock and not really throwing it, let alone throwing it deep. This comes as unfortunate news for managers who were probably forced to start Davis and his roller-coaster season as this marks two games in a row now of zero points. Starting Davis is always a dart throw and lately, it’s either a bullseye or outright missing the board completely.

Notes