Saints @ Panthers
Final Score: Panthers 22, Saints 14
Writer: Jason Wolf (@J_Wolf_picks on Twitter)
The Saints hit the road to take on division rival Carolina Panthers but forgot to get off the bus as they were shut out on the scoreboard in the first half, only putting up their points in garbage time in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. Jason Wolf offers up his insight on what he saw from all of the fantasy-relevant players during the Panthers’ first win of the season.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Jameis Winston: 25/41, 353 Yards, TD, 2 INT | 2 Carries, 5 Yards, 2 Fumble (Recovered)
There was some excitement over what Jameis Winston could do this year with a full set of receiving weapons and the full “green light” to be himself, however, what we have seen on the field so far has not met most peoples’ expectations (other than the turnovers of course). Maybe it is unfair to judge Jameis’ performance from today since he suited up with multiple fractures in his back, but Jameis left a lot to be desired. Winston’s final stats might pass the eye test as far as a productive night goes, stats-wise, but nearly all of his counting stats came after halftime while already down two possessions. At halftime, Jameis was 9/17 for 112 yards a solid 0-fer on drives that resulted in putting points on the board.
Jameis was never a mobile quarterback, but he seems particularly a step behind these days, and that was evident in this game. Yes, the offensive line could have afforded Jameis a cleaner pocket and more time to go through his progressions, but Winston at times looked like a college QB who only locks onto his main read. When faced with pressure, Jameis looked flustered, overwhelmed, and showed a lack of playmaking ability in making things happen from a less-than-ideal pocket. When faced with blitz, he was often unable to identify the blitz in time / where it was coming from and he either threw the ball away or chucked it where no one could really reach it. Even on his lone Touchdown pass, the decision to throw the ball to receiver Marques Calloway was a Jameis special, aka an extremely questionable decision, only being bailed out by Calloway’s super impressive one-handed catch to snag the ball from the reach of the defender.
https://twitter.com/slavoj_fitcheck/status/1574289047257632768
He has all the arm talent in the world, but as it has always been, it is his decision-making and inconsistency which are the biggest question marks in Jameis’ game, and that isn’t going to change at this point. We got the full Jameis experience in this one, ranging from ridiculous long bombs in garbage time, missed wide open receivers, and near-zero pre-snap activity in terms of Jameis adjusting coverages to compensate for the Panthers’ blitz packages.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara: 15 Carries, 61 Yards | 7 Targets, 2 Receptions, 12 Yards | 1 Fumble (Lost)
Mark Ingram II: 5 Carries, 18 Yards, TD
Alvin Kamara made his return after missing Week two due to injury, but to be honest, it looked like he could have used another week (or two) on the shelf because he didn’t look like the usual explosive Kamara that we have all become accustomed to. Yes, the o-line has not been exactly opening up holes for the running game, but Kamara has not looked healthy, lacking his signature explosiveness thus far in the young season. It also does not help that HC Dennis Allen + Jameis do not seem to want to get the ball in Kamara’s hands in the way that Sean Payton + Brees used to. The calls aren’t being made for Kamara, and the majority of the time, Winston refuses to check down or even go through his progressions to look for the dump off option, really limiting the quality opportunities that Kamara gets to make plays with the ball in his hands. Poor usage aside, Kamara also had a subpar game, losing a fumble in the first quarter which led to a Panthers’ touchdown. With 0 targets at halftime though and the Saints trailing by two scores, you have to wonder why they aren’t getting Kamara the ball with more urgency. Granted, he was probably brought back a week or two too early, but the usage is not encouraging. Kamara averages 5.1 rec. / game for his career, but with Winston at the helm for the past two years, he is only averaging 3.5 receptions. It is clear that Kamara + Winston have not been a great fit together but the coaching staff needs to do a better job of scheming to get AK more opportunities to make plays in space.
Mark Ingram continues to be a thorn in Kamara’s numbers’ and fantasy players’ sides, doing what he does best as he vultured the Saints’ lone rushing TD, punching in a short-distance house call. It was a great run as Ingram did a shifty move to make the defender miss in the backfield on his way to the endzone. Ingram has a surprising amount of juice left, but that is not saying much given his mileage. He is a serviceable backup RB who will probably see more usage in a game where the Saints are not scrambling to catch up from behind and will probably be vulturing TD’s from Kamara all year.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Chris Olave: 13 Targets, 9 Receptions, 147 Yards
Tre’Quan Smith: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 105 Yards
Michael Thomas: 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 49 Yards
Jarvis Landry: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 22 Yards
Taysom Hill: 0 Targets, 0 Carries
After inexplicably seeing just three targets in the season opener, Chris Olave has drawn 13 targets in consecutive games, making the impact that everyone expected after the Saints used a first round pick on the former Ohio State star wideout. Olave made a big impact on this game, making his presence felt on all levels of the field. Olave is a threat on all three levels of the field but in this one he made his biggest plays in the deep passing game. Olave would surely do well with anyone throwing him the ball but the pairing with Jameis does seem to be yielding some early results.
Chris Olave is HIM! pic.twitter.com/teb2P4Qiyj
— PFF NO Saints (@PFF_Saints) September 25, 2022
Olave is probably the most polished route runner out of all the rookie wide receivers which is saying something because this year’s crop of freshmen receivers is loaded with talent and production already on this young season. Take this play for example where Olave shows off his skills before the ball is caught and during. Olave runs a super deep post route and finds the hole in the Saints’ zone defense, and makes a spectacular catch to perfectly high-point a Jameis deep ball and come down with it while knowing he was likely to take a big hit. Olave is incredibly talented, he can run every route on the tree, and his crisp route running allows him to beat man coverage regularly.
Chris Olave was the only bright spot today. The kid is legit! pic.twitter.com/EWgU9cbPSp
— Barstool NOLA (@BarstoolNOLA) September 25, 2022
Michael Thomas is still incredible, and you still can’t guard Mike. While he doesn’t seem to be up to 100% speed in terms of his explosiveness off the line and quickness, MT is still one of the best in the game at making the tough catches. Thomas’ stats don’t pop out this game but he played a quality game, taking the form of Mr. reliable for his quarterback, catching multiple difficult balls and snagging every all five targets that he saw come his way. We might not see too many vintage 10 catch, 100+ yard games from Michael Thomas (at least not until later in the year) but his technical skills as a receiver and ability to snag the ball are still as elite as ever. He made plays like this, bailing Winston out from subpar throws and showed he still has one of the most reliable set of hands in the league. MT can obviously still ball but it would appear that the end of his time as the alpha receiver in New Orleans is quickly coming to an end. This is less of a knock on MT and more of a ringing endorsement of how Chris Olave looks.
What a catch by Michael Thomas! 😨pic.twitter.com/PO3bZpRG7N
— Saints Nation (@SaintsNationCP) September 25, 2022
Tre’Quan Smith made his season debut, and showed out today as the game script heavily favored his abilities with Jameis airing the ball out after halftime. Smith is a garbage time king who will mostly see the field when the Saints are in catch-up mode. His 4-catch, 100+ yard performance today will probably stand out as one of the more random 100-yard games from a receiver this season and will probably be followed up by a total lack of involvement on offense, which has been Tre’Quan’s pattern since he joined the Saints. Jarvis Landry seems like an afterthought in this offense, what with his possession style of play not really being suited to Jameis’ “just chuck it up there” philosophy. As long as MT is healthy, Landry’s usage figures to be completely unreliable.
For what felt like the first time in forever, Taysom Hill‘s name just wasn’t called all day. Hill did not register a target, carry, or throw in an unusually quiet day for him where he did not appear on the box score at all. Any hope people might have had for him as a productive TE seems to have dissipated.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: 12/25, 170 Yards, TD | 1 Carry, -1 Yard
There was a lot of optimism around the Panthers’ offense with a seemingly significant upgrade at QB over the summer with Baker Mayfield replacing Sam Darnold as starting QB. Unfortunately, this uptick in offensive production from the QB + skill positions with Baker at the helm has not yet panned out the way Carolina may have hoped. Against the Saints, Mayfield looked like a quarterback who just isn’t gelling with the offense and what it wants to do. It seems like the Panthers are trying to make Baker fit their scheme rather than building around what he does best which is creating from play-action. Mayfield’s bread and butter is the deep ball but this has not been working through the first few weeks and it wasn’t working today.
You have to wonder if the Panthers’ poor management of the training camp QB “battle” and the pseudo QB competition they had over the summer has contributed to the offense’s and Baker’s slow start. Mayfield surely looks like he could have used all the practice reps with the first team that he could have had. Mayfield’s stats from this game look pretty pedestrian but they are actually even less impressive when you realize that over 1/3rd of his total passing yardage (and his lone TD) came off a 67 yard catch and run from Laviska Shenault, who took the ball from the LOS, made tacklers miss, and made the long house call himself, eating up all 67 yards after the catch. Mayfield completed less than 50% of his passes today which is unacceptable for the Panthers as they have some of the best short-game receiving options in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore. Mayfield isn’t throwing INT”s but he is taking an unnecessary amount of sacks as he is holding the ball for too long and doing a poor job reading defensive coverages thus far, with at least one of the three sacks taken today was completely avoidable if Mayfield stood strong in the pocket and got rid of the ball. Maybe he was spoiled by his offensive line in Cleveland but Mayfield seems shaky in the backfield, almost as if he doesn’t have full trust in his team yet. Almost as if the starting QB should have gotten all the practice reps with the first team…
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey: 25 Carries, 108 Yards | 4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 7 Yards
Chuba Hubbard: 3 Carries, 25 Yards
Christian McCaffrey put on a vintage running clinic, eclipsing the 100-yard mark on the ground for the first time since 2019 on his 25 carries. The Panthers fed him all game, and he consistently produced, gaining tough yards on inside runs and looking quick and explosive on the outside stuff. I personally still don’t understand the lack of involvement in the passing game in the scheme, but the Panthers were playing with the lead in this game so that probably explains the lack of usage there (at least for one more week), but overall the Panthers need to do a better job of getting CMC the ball in space and in advantageous positions. As someone who was a big advocate of CMC coming into this year, it is encouraging and reassuring to see him carry the ball 25 times and pop back up after each hit he takes. I know it’s only three weeks into the season but he seems healthy. Gone (at least for now), are the worries that at the end of every carry he will stay down on the field just a little longer. He looks spry, energetic, and primed to pop off a big one whenever he gets a little bit of space. If the offensive line would create a little more space for him, this run game could produce some really strong results. Overall, CMC’s statline doesn’t pop out from the box score, but the way he moved and ran in between the tackles was wonderful to see if you’re a fan, fantasy football owner, or just someone who enjoys watching highly skilled football players do their thing.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
DJ Moore: 2 Carries, 13 Yards | 6 Targets, 1 Reception, 2 Yards
Robbie Anderson: 4 Targets, 1 Reception, 14 Yards
Laviska Shenault Jr.: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 90 Yards, TD
Ian Thomas: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 13 Yards
Count me as one of the people who bought in big time to the notion of DJ Moore taking a big statistical leap this year due to the “significant” upgrade at QB. A popular sleeper pick to lead the league in receiving, DJ Moore’s connection with Mayfield has (rightfully) been put into doubt. This was one of the quietest games of Moore’s career as a Panther, as it was very easy to miss his presence in the game entirely. Casual fans were certainly asking “where is DJ Moore” after he only hauled in a single reception on his six targets. Granted, the quality of the targets were not the best as Mayfield looks to DJ Moore when pressure is collapsing the pocket or when the play is broken. This is a good thing as Baker recognizes his best receiving weapon but it also looks bad when you watch it live. Again, it looks like Mayfield and Moore could have benefitted from a couple extra (hundred?) reps over the summer as they never really seemed on the same page, even when Moore was Mayfield’s primary read. Maybe there is something to be said for Mayfield struggling to get the ball into his best players’ hands after all (flashbacks to OBJ’s usage in Cleveland intensify).
The Panthers’ best offensive highlight of the day came on a Laviska Shenault Jr. 67-yard catch and run for a TD. Shenault caught the ball on a simple out route on the flat but made the first defender miss, turned upfield, and juked the only defender who could have prevented him from making the house call. Shenault has often flashed explosive, big-play ability in his time with the Jags, and he did it again today on his TD catch as well as his other catch of the day, a 23 yard reception from Baker. Now, I would say that Shenault is a certified weapon that the Panthers can use to bring a different element to the offense, but with Matt Rhule as HC, there isn’t much hope for offensive creativity. Shenault will be limited to these very random explosions, especially with Robbie (Robby? Robbi? Robb-e?) Anderson lurking in the shadows, waiting for his random 150 yard, 2 TD explosion games. Speaking of Anderson, he was incredibly quiet today, only popping up on the box score when he came down with a 14 yard grab, his lone catch of the day on four targets. Anderson’s big play ability is well-documented but will certainly only pop up every now and then as Mayfield seems hesitant to take his shots downfield thus far.
Laviska Shenault making defenders miss in the open field. A critical 67-yard TD, perhaps the play of the season thus far for the Panthers. pic.twitter.com/cCrzhqrHq9
— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) September 26, 2022