What We Saw: Week 3

   

Brett Ford
What We Saw 3 Months Ago
Series Navigation
Introduction
Patriots @ Jets
Giants @ Browns
Packers @ Titans
Bears @ Colts
Texans @ Vikings
Eagles @ Saints
Chargers @ Steelers
Broncos @ Buccaneers
Panthers @ Raiders
Dolphins @ Seahawks
Ravens @ Cowboys
49ers @ Rams
Lions @ Cardinals
Chiefs @ Falcons

Broncos @ Buccaneers

Final Score: Broncos 26 – Buccaneers 7

Writer: Jesse Maida

 

The Broncos won the coin toss, elected to take the ball, and executed a near-flawless opening drive touchdown. It was clear from the start this would be a different Broncos team from what we’ve seen in the first two weeks of the season. Playing at home as a 5.5-point favorite against an anemic Broncos offense, Tampa Bay was a popular survivor pool pick but was embarrassed in all areas of the game. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said it best himself, calling the game a “complete team collapse, complete team loss” and being “outplayed and outcoached by the Broncos today.”

 

Three Up

  • Bo Nix – One of the best performances by a rookie QB this season. Nix looked like a legitimate NFL starting QB in week 3.
  • Bucky Irving – The title of this article series is ‘What We Saw’, and what I saw was the best RB on the Bucs.
  • Chris Godwin – The GodWR1n campaign continues. The top players in fantasy football find a way to get the job done even in ugly games and that’s exactly what Godwin did.

Three Down

  • Javonte Williams – Three unimpressive games in a row, and still without a touchdown. Javonte now relies on receiving usage just to remain fantasy-relevant.
  • Rachaad White – If Bucky is trending up, then it should be no surprise White is trending down. He’s still the Bucs RB1 in snaps but for how long?
  • Baker Mayfield – Failed to reach 200 passing yards for the second week in a row and has taken 12 combined sacks in the last two weeks.

 

Denver Broncos

 

Quarterback

 

Bo Nix: 25/36, 216 Yards | 9 Carries, 47 Yards, TD

“If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a thousand times, POISE COUNTS!” Nix must have been watching Seinfeld reruns in his Week 3 preparation because ‘poised’ is the one word I would use to describe him this week. Nix led the Broncos to an opening drive score, going 4/4 for 70 yards through the air, capped off with a three-yard rushing touchdown. This drive included two chunk passes; a 22-yard pass to Sutton on the first play of the game and a 31-yard pass to Reynolds a few plays later.

This was already a drastic improvement for Nix after completing only 6/24 passes with 4 INTs on passes of 10+ yards in the first two weeks. It wasn’t just his production that improved, Nix was smart, decisive, and accurate. He played like a veteran, processing the field well, getting the ball out quickly, and feeling the pressure, while avoiding turnover-worthy plays and poor penalties. The highlight for me was a 22-yard gain on a scramble after evading what looked like to be a sure sack. After tearing Nix apart in my Week 1 recap, I’m happy to eat my words. Fantasy managers should be happy too because this offense may not just be a lost cause after all.

 

Running Back

 

Javonte Williams: 5 Carries, 12 Yards, FUM(L) | 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 29 Yards

This was another terrible game from Williams. The low-lights included a 2nd quarter lost fumble in Tampa Bay territory while up 17-0, which let the Bucs back in the game as they scored a touchdown following the turnover. Earlier in the half Williams was stuffed at the goal line on 3rd-and-goal and failed to convert on a 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard line. In terms of usage, Williams is still the RB1, playing 52% of the snaps, while running 16 routes, but 52 yards on 24 carries through three weeks is abysmal. Javonte’s saving grace thus far has been his nine receptions in the last two games, which is the only reason why he justifies a roster spot in deep leagues at this point. Nix’s rushing usage further lowers Javonte’s ceiling and floor as the rookie QB scored his second rushing touchdown of the year and also converted on 3rd-and-short and 4th-and-short. This backfield should be avoided entirely.

 

Missed Opportunities

  • Got stuffed on 3rd-and-goal from the goal line. McLaughlin converted the TD on the next play.

 

Jaleel McLaughlin: 5 Carries, 7 Yards, TD | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 7 Yards

McLaughlin had the highlight of the game, juking his way to a goal-line touchdown which could have easily been a five-yard loss. Sadly, this was the only play of relevance with his other four touches combining for 13 yards. After catching five passes in Week 1 (on five targets), McLaughlin only has one reception on one target in the previous two weeks combined. Without the receiving usage he saw in Week 1, he cannot be trusted in your lineups going forward, even in PPR leagues.

 

 

Tyler Badie: 9 Carries, 70 Yards

With Audric Estime placed on IR earlier in the week, Badie assumed the role of RB3 and took advantage of his opportunity. He busted a 43-yard gain in the 4th quarter and continued to act as the closer, getting the vote of confidence from head coach Sean Payton. Badie led the Broncos in both carries and yards, picking up multiple chunk gains, including the earlier mentioned 43-yard run which was Denver’s longest run of the year to date. He was by far the team’s best running back in this game and definitely deserves more touches, further complicating this backfield for fantasy football.

 

 

Wide Receiver/Tight End

 

Courtland Sutton: 11 Targets, 7 Receptions, 68 Yards

Sutton entered the week as the WR6 in expected fantasy points per game but was outside the top 60 in actual fantasy points. If Nix continues to improve, I think it’s fair to expect Sutton’s production to be somewhere in the middle. He’s now averaging nine targets a game and had his best game of the season with seven receptions and 68 yards, two more receptions, and four more yards than he had in weeks 1-2 combined. Sutton still appears to be the clear WR1 in this offense.

 

Missed Opportunities

  • Had an end zone target but could not get both feet down inbounds

 

Josh Reynolds: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 36 Yards

This was a disappointing game for Reynolds after his 93-yard performance in Week 2. It started off great, with a 31-yard reception on the third play of the game, but he was only targeted once the rest of the way. Reynolds was out-snapped, out-targeted, and out-produced by Lil’ Jordan Humphrey.

 

Lil’ Jordan Humphrey: 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 37 Yards

Humphrey has now set a career-high for receptions in back-to-back games. That’s 10 receptions, on 13 targets for 77 yards over the last two weeks. It might be time to take Humphrey seriously in deeper PPR leagues because despite Josh Reynolds having the big game in Week 2, Humphrey played 15 more snaps and ran more routes this week.

 

Troy Franklin: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 11 Yards

With Devaughn Vele ruled out again with a broken rib, Franklin was activated for the second straight game. After being held without a catch in Week 2, Franklin was targeted five times including a pair of grabs on the same drive early in the 2nd quarter. Franklin is battling with Marvin Mims for the Broncos WR4 position until Vele is back, and saw one more snap than Mims but four more targets. This is not a fantasy-friendly role but something to monitor in dynasty leagues.

Missed Opportunities

  • Targeted on a deep ball from Nix but could not get either foot down.

 

Greg Dulcich: N/A

Those who turned to Duclich for a desperation tight end stream will be outraged with the goose egg in their lineup. After receiving eight targets in Week 2, Dulcich was not targeted against the Bucs while only playing 25% of the snaps, less than both Adam Trautman (67%) and even Nate Adkins (37%).

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Quarterback

 

Baker Mayfield: 25/33 163 Yards, TD, INT

Baker was the QB1 through the first two weeks of the NFL season so the only direction he could go was down, and he went down a lot, being sacked seven times. Baker and the Bucs were never in this game, getting dominated from the opening kick-off. Facing constant pressure from the Broncos defensive line and Mike Evans being shadowed by Patrick Surtain, meant a lot of short passes and no explosive plays. I have legitimate concerns with this offensive line after the last two weeks which has seen Baker sacked 12 times and only throwing for 348 total yards.

 

Running Back

 

Rachaad White: 6 Carries, 17 Yards | 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 18 Yards

White was outproduced on the ground by rookie Bucky Irving for the third week in a row. In fact, White’s three-game rushing total of 66 yards on 31 carries was less than Irving’s rushing total in this game (70). White continued to be involved in the passing game, catching five balls for 18 yards, but without the workhorse usage he saw in 2023 (16 carries/game), he is far from the RB1 production we witnessed last year. The good news for managers with White on their fantasy team is that he did see a goal-line carry, dominated snaps (especially on 3rd down), and saw all snaps inside the 10-yard line. That’s the only good news though; Bucky is a threat for a majority of the early down work and is a capable receiver himself.

 

 

Notes

  • White picked up a groin injury in Week 2 so it’s possible he was a little banged up, however, he logged a full practice on Friday and entered the weekend with no injury designation.

Missed Opportunities

  • White was stuffed at the goal line but it appeared he may have done enough for the touchdown.

 

Bucky Irving: 9 Carries, 70 Yards | 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 14 Yards

Bucky provided the Bucs a spark when they looked dead, ripping off a 32-yard run immediately after a Javonte Williams fumble, displaying excellent vision and shiftiness. Later in the drive, he broke a 13-yard gain, getting tackled at the one-yard line. The snap share isn’t there yet but the production is, now leading all rookies in rushing yards, but more importantly, Bucky’s yards per carry is nearly triple White’s, accumulating 88 more rushing yards on six fewer carries. He deserves more touches and should be owned in your league if he isn’t already.

 

 

 

Sean Tucker: 1 Carry, 4 Yards

 

Wide Receiver/Tight End

 

Chris Godwin: 9 Targets, 6 Receptions, 53 Yards, TD

For the third week in a row, Godwin led the team in targets, and receptions, while scoring a TD. He secured his third touchdown of the season late in the 2nd quarter, already surpassing his total from last season (also matching his 2022 total). In a game where the Bucs offensive line was manhandled, leaving Baker Mayfield helpless, Godwin still managed 17.3 PPR fantasy points. This is what the best fantasy players do. All offseason we heard how Godwin’s move back to the slot could vault him back into elite WR territory and that’s exactly what’s happened through three weeks.

 

Missed Opportunities

  • Godwin had two drops, including one on an important 4th down.

 

Mike Evans: 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 17 Yards

Not much to say here. Evans was shut down by Patrick Surtain, joining DK Metcalf and George Pickens. Proceed with caution when starting a WR1 vs. Broncos.

 

Jalen McMillan: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 6 Yards

This is the third consecutive week McMillan has played around 80% of the snaps with only one reception. He is a true cardio king at the moment but is clearly ahead of Trey Palmer for the Bucs’ WR3 position. He needs an injury to Evans or Godwin to be relevant in redraft leagues

 

Cade Otton: 8 Targets, 7 Receptions, 47 Yards, FUM(L)

With Evans being shut down and Baker under constant pressure, Otton was the beneficiary, acting as Baker’s safety net. Otton was a non-factor for two weeks with only one reception, but this performance at least puts him on the tight end streaming radar in matchups where Tampa Bay may have a negative game script. He is the clear TE1 in this offense, playing 92% of the snaps in Week 3.

Series Navigation
Introduction
Patriots @ Jets
Giants @ Browns
Packers @ Titans
Bears @ Colts
Texans @ Vikings
Eagles @ Saints
Chargers @ Steelers
Broncos @ Buccaneers
Panthers @ Raiders
Dolphins @ Seahawks
Ravens @ Cowboys
49ers @ Rams
Lions @ Cardinals
Chiefs @ Falcons

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