Bears @ Colts
Final Score: Colts 21, Bears 16
Lead Fantasy Football Analyst: Marco Enriquez (@Marco_NFL on X/Twitter)
In one of the sloppiest games of the week, the formerly winless Colts were able to hang on in Week 3. Anthony Richardson predictably struggled through the air against the Chicago Bears this week as they came into the matchup with one of the better secondaries in the entire NFL. Richardson threw two interceptions in this one and the first one was in the end zone on what could only be described as a laughably bad decision with horrible execution.
From there it never really got better as the running backs carried the Colts to victory. Jonathan Taylor managed to hit pay dirt twice in this one and backup Trey Sermon was also able to get in on the action. The Bears’ defense had to be gassed as the offense struggled early like it has all season. The good news for the Bears is that Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze were able to take a step forward and show some much-needed chemistry for the first time.
Three Up
- Caleb Williams – Williams had an up-and-down performance. He had the patented “no one is on the same page” moments, but he also was able to throw for two touchdowns and just under 400 yards through the air. The ceiling is evident if he can just get some extra protection from the offensive line.
- Rome Odunze – Odunze flashed in Week 3 being the favorite target of Caleb Williams. Odunze has flourished in Keenan Allen’s absence, even with his sprained knee. Allen should be returning to the field soon but if that lowers Odunze’s value in your leagues you should be trading for him. The arrow is pointing straight up for the rookie pass catcher.
- Cole Kmet – Kmet tied Odunze to lead the team in targets in Week 3. He has become the safety blanket for Williams in the early going. With the Bears’ offensive line not getting better anytime soon, that could mean value in full PPR leagues. Especially for those who lost Njoku, Engram, or George Kittle recently.
Three Down
- Anthony Richardson – The arrow is not pointing straight down for Richardson as he has another multi-interception game but it’s not trending well for the athletic signal caller. Accuracy continues to escape him and it creates a world of issues for the Colts’ offense, Richardson himself, and of course his pass catchers. To return the fantasy value people were hoping he will need to run the ball at a much higher clip.
- All Colts Pass Catchers – Mentioned above but the pass catchers for the Colts didn’t just have a small pie to work with but the target quality was abysmal. Pittman and Josh Downs led the way in targets (5) but not a single player eclipsed 45 yards receiving this week.
- D’Andre Swift – Swift has not been worth the hefty price tag the Bears paid for him in the offseason. Part of the issue is the weak play by the interior offensive line but he was outplayed by both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert this week and Johnson just looked like the outright better player when he was on the field.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: 33/52, 363 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks | 1 Carry, 8 Yards, 1 Fumble
Caleb Williams continues to improve despite seeing relentless pressure and a sieve-like offensive line. To temper expectations for this season, the improvements are slow and steady but they are evident. Williams has now thrown for more yards than either of his predecessors did in their rookie campaigns and nearly hit the 400-yard mark in Week 3. He was able to show a few different arm angles and the patented escapability that was all over his college tape and that will be critical if he hopes to continue to shine as the season progresses.
Now it’s safe to say he won’t be throwing the ball 52 times every week but the arm talent was evident. There were some mishaps along the way outside of the box score turnovers. In the first half, there were three separate occasions where Williams and DJ Moore or Rome Odunze were running entirely separate plays and that is just not good for players of their caliber.
It’s hard to know who is in the wrong on these plays but it is safe to say Williams will be the one held accountable. The next five weeks are winnable matchups for the Bears and Williams, and he should be a safe play for fantasy football as he posted nearly 18 points in Week 3 and is in QB1 territory at my time of writing this.
Notes
- Williams’ biggest obstacles at this point are the offensive line and Shane Waldron’s playcalling. Turnovers will happen for rookie signal callers, but the skill set is evident. He is seeing the field much better than he was in Week 1. He should get Keenan Allen back in Week 4 or 5.
- The interceptions were ugly but in the second half, Williams displayed growth as he made some smart decisions to throw the ball away or dump it off to Roschon Johnson or D’Andre Swift when his receivers were all well-covered. These are the types of decisions that don’t make the stat sheet but can be indicators of future success. Keep an eye on these types of plays for Williams.
Running Back
Roschon Johnson: 8 Carries, 30 Yards | 4 Targets, 5 Receptions, 32 Yards
D’Andre Swift: 13 Carries, 20 Yards | 2 Targets, 4 Receptions, 22 Yards
Roschon Johnson was not involved in the offense first two weeks. Partially due to injury and partially due to Shane Waldron being partial to carry over Travis Homer. In his first real action of the season, Johnson was far from spectacular but he was very clearly the best running back in the Bears offense.
D’Andre Swift continued to be absolutely brutal. He frequently displayed poor vision and decision-making and was not able to deal with contact well. The interior of the Bears offensive line is a mess so the running backs are at a disadvantage but it is not currently a viable backfield for fantasy football purposes.
As a team, they were able to post only 63 total rushing yards (2.3 yards per carry). If you are desperate for a bench stash at the running back position Johnson is probably a free add for you after waivers run. I would not be surprised if Johnson took over the starting job for this team as he is the best blocker among the group while also having a three-down skill set and a workhorse frame (6’0, 225 lbs).
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Rome Odunze: 11 Targets, 6 Receptions, 112 Yards, 1 TD
Rome Odunze was primed for a big day with Keenan Allen still recovering from injury. This was the softest defense that the young receiver has faced all season and he was able to finally establish some chemistry with his young quarterback. He was on the field for nearly all of the Bears’ offensive snaps in Week 3 (98% route participation), while also posting team team-leading 23% target share and 49% air-yard share. There was a case to be made that as a rookie he was the most complete receiver on the Bears offense and he showed us why this week. Allen’s return may shrink the pie to some degree but Odunze is here to stay and should be a WR3 with the potential for more each and every week.
Cole Kmet: 11 Targets, 10 Receptions, 97 Yards, 1 TD
The argument against Cole Kmet in the preseason was that there were too many mouths to feed. Well with Allen absent and the Bears throwing the ball 52 times he was able to tie Odunze to lead the team in targets. Kmet has established himself as Williams’ safety blanket and that bodes well for his future success in the new-look offense. He is an adequate blocker so he may find himself filling that role more than people would like but the hope would be that Waldron would not have him go one-on-one with edge rushers too often like he did in Week 3. Ultimately Kmet is looking like a great value for the next month or so as the Bears schedule continues to be soft going forward.
DJ Moore: 10 Targets, 8 Receptions, 78 Yards
DJ Moore is averaging over nine targets per game and in Week 3 he hit or tied his season high for targets (10), catches (8), and yards (78). Moore continues to show his frustration with the offense as he was underthrown multiple times in the first quarter and saw most of his usage be at or behind the line of scrimmage. This is a symptom of the Shane Waldron offense that forced Jaxon Smith-Njigba to see a laughably low aDot (average depth of target) last season. The hope is that with the return of Allen and the emergence of Oduzne that Moore will find some more space as the season continues. Week 4 could be a big week for the veteran as he faces a banged-up Los Angeles Rams defense.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson: 10/20, 167 Yards, 2 INT, 1 Sack | 8 Carries, 24 Yards
Anthony Richardson threw his fifth and sixth interceptions of the season and failed to score a touchdown through the air or on the ground. His first interception was exceptionally egregious as he made a poor decision and an even worse throw, oh also it was IN THE END ZONE. The second was also a poor throw across his body to the opposite side of the field. You can see both below.
https://twitter.com/nfl/status/1837912568175665574?s=46&t=SQBhef9hkEhUJuZXovm39A
https://twitter.com/jacobinfante24/status/1837913445540549090?s=46&t=SQBhef9hkEhUJuZXovm39A
Richardson’s accuracy was always questionable and will continue to be. The caveat with him as a quarterback and fantasy asset was his rushing. The issue is that his rushing production has dropped every week of the season (56, 37, 24). It is still early and Richardson may just be shaking off the injury and preseason rust but he needs to get on track fast.
The unfortunate thing for Richardson is that next week he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers. The rest of season schedule is looking daunting and Richardson may be learning how to swim in the deep end of the pool for most of it. Looking at the schedule he has four games against the bottom half of the league’s pass defenses from now until the Colts Week 14 bye.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor: 23 Carries, 110 Yards, 2 TDs | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 25 Yards
Trey Sermon: 2 Carries, 16 Yards, 1 TD
Jonathan Taylor was and will continue to be the lead running back and workhorse for the Indianapolis Colts. His first touchdown was a beautiful run. Taylor showed his agility and vision making a veteran cut around his own blockers, hitting a hole, and taking it to the house. Positive game scripts will almost always go Taylor’s way as the Colts look to protect the football and their oft-injured quarterback. Trey Sermon had two touches in this one and was able to score a touchdown. The touchdown was a grinding play where Sermon was stopped early and then pushed/carried into the end zone by his teammates. He didn’t get onto the field again for the game.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Michael Pittman: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 36 Yards
Josh Downs: 5 Targets, 2 Receptions, 22 Yards
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs led the Colts pass catches in targets (25% target share) but weren’t able to do much with those targets. Downs in his first game action of the season established himself as a go-to option in the short to intermediate area of the field. Primarily lining up in the slot, you can expect Downs to contend with Pittman for most of the season. Downs has historically been the more efficient of the two pass catchers when both are on the field. This poor first showing presents a solid buying window. Remember you should not be buying the guy who scored the touchdown last week, you should be buying the target share and route participation leaders. Buy Downs.
Alec Pierce: 2 Target, 1 Reception, 44 Yards
Alec Pierce came into Week 3 absolutely on fire, being the beneficiary of some of Richardson’s best deep balls. In Week 3, the Colts played one of the better defenses and secondaries in the NFL and none of the pass catchers were able to get much going. Pierce was able to reel in one of his targets for the biggest play of the game for the Colts. This is going to be a symptom of both Pierce’s play style and Richardson’s inaccuracy. He is best left on your bench or thrown onto the trade block for any believers in your leagues. Guessing when he is going to pop will be a headache all season long.
Kyle Granson: 1 Target, 1 Reception, 40 Yards
Kyle Granson rotated in and out at tight end all game but was able to haul in his only target and show some nice run-after-the-catch ability picking up speed quickly. He wasn’t easy to bring down but it is unlikely we see Granson much unless Mo-Alie Cox is forced to miss time this season.