Falcons @ Panthers
Final Score: Panthers 30, Falcons 0
Writer: Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind on X/Twitter)
The score was 30-0, but to be honest, this game was more about Atlanta shooting themselves in the foot on every play/series than anything fancy the Panthers did. Even the turnover plays were sort of just gifts Atlanta gave to Carolina, more than a Panther player making a great break on a ball. I’m sure people will have some opinions about Michael Penix Jr. after this game — he didn’t play that well, but he wasn’t helped by his receivers or the coaching staff, either.
Carolina’s defense stepped up, and they are likely better than people realize or give them credit for at the moment, but this was just a game that got away from Atlanta, who had a terrible game plan on offense and were missing a key CB on defense. We’ll go over the fantasy notes below and try to make sense of it all.
Two Up
- Tetairoa McMillan — He’s going to have big games ahead, just was not needed here.
- Chuba Hubbard — The clear-cut No. 1 option, didn’t score but dominated touches when the game was close.
Four Down
- Michael Penix — Poor game and one brutal pick when they were behind and he started forcing things.
- Darnell Mooney — Was likely the worst player on Atlanta’s offense, but still got 11 targets for some reason.
- Tyler Allgeier — Got completely game-scripted out of this one.
- Ja’Tavion Sanders — After being a focal point last week, lost targets to other receivers.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Michael Penix: 18/36, 172 yards, 2 INT | 2 carries, 9 yards
Not much to say about this game from Penix. He looked fine early on when the calls were scripted, shooting some quick mid-field throws to Drake London. Then, once the Falcons got behind and their kicker missed a couple of field goals, he started forcing things to Darnell Mooney, and things went very sour.
Mooney hasn’t practiced much with Penix this year because of injuries, and it showed. Their timing was off, but it was mainly Mooney either dropping balls (he had a brutal drop early on) or just looking a little behind or unpolished (fingertip drops, etc).
Penix did hold the ball a little too much at times, and there was a good push all game by Carolina’s D-Line to disrupt him, but his biggest sin was giving Mooney all these targets against a defense that bleeds yards to TEs. Kyle Pitts had zero targets through the first quarter and would have eaten up the defense had he had Mooney’s targets.
Penix was eventually pulled for Kirk Cousins, so I’m sure the media will play up the QB controversy angle this week, but this unravelling was a top-to-bottom effort by the entire Atlanta team. I’d still believe in Penix as a streamer option because of the talent on this offense, but there is some risk ahead if you’re relying on him in two-QB leagues now because another poor game will put the potential for a switch at a much higher risk.
Running Back
Bijon Robinson: 13 carries, 72 yards | 6 targets, 5 receptions, 39 yards
Bijan Robinson was the one thing that was actually working for Atlanta in this offense all game. Unfortunately, they kept forcing things to Mooney rather than taking simple dump-offs to Robinson and Pitts in key spots, and it cost them the game, among other things.
Robinson looked great. He gained bigger chunks rushing a few different times early on, and the fact that he had 72 rush yards in a game his team lost by 30 tells you something. He was being used as an outlet by Penix a decent amount, but they likely could have worked him even more, and some of that receiving work was when the game was out of hand, so I wouldn’t necessarily count on 5+ catches every game.
Regardless, you’ll take the solid PPR day, but this offense’s trouble in the red zone is hurting Robinson’s upside. My only other note on Robinson is that they need to get him out into space more often. They used him up the middle quite a bit this game, which is where they’d be better served using Allgeier and keeping Robinson fresh. A lack of big plays is hurting Atlanta.
Tyler Allgeier: 1 carry, 4 yards | 2 target, 1 reception, 0 yards
Got completely game flowed out of this one. Had a carry and one target early on and then took the rest of the game off.
He’s still a high-end handcuff and will get lots of work in games that are close, so if someone drops him off this and you have room to stash, do it.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Drake London: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 55 yards
London looked fine to me in this game. He was winning small battles for the most part and made a couple of nice sideline grabs early on to help get them into field goal range. There was one misfire by Penix in the first half, which would have gone for a first down, so he did suffer a little due to the off game by his QB.
London’s biggest issue was that his QB kept giving Mooney chances rather than allowing London to go up and fight for the ball, which he was doing early and winning. I expect this will be rectified next week, so “potentially” London could be viewed as a buy-low candidate and good bounce-back candidate in Week 4.
Darnell Mooney: 11 targets, 4 receptions, 44 yards
Every time the ball was thrown in Mooney’s direction, it just felt like something was off. In most cases, his route was off by a few inches, or he just couldn’t come in with a ball that was on target (or just slightly off target). I sort of understand why Penix was giving him targets, because, to Mooney’s credit, he was getting open, but the connection just didn’t click for many big plays.
Mooney’s most egregious effort was a straight drop in the first quarter (put perfectly in his hands by Penix), but he had some smaller and more crucial misfires later on that could have helped Atlanta get in this game. It was a strange game plan to give him this much work, as it’s only his second game back, and quite frankly, he looked like someone who missed training camp and doesn’t have enough reps under his belt.
Not sure what to think about him going forward. This connection would have clicked for a monster game had they been in sync, but that could be weeks away from happening.
Kyle Pitts: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 39 yards
Completely bizarre approach by Atlanta in this game for Pitts. He’s looked very good the first two weeks, and was connecting all camp with Pitts, so giving Mooney preferential treatment reeked of the coaches getting too fancy.
Pitts looked fine again this game, but didn’t have a target in the first quarter, and didn’t get his first looks until they were down multiple scores.
The bigger worry here is that if the coaches are pushing Mooney, then Pitts is essentially just acting as a secondary target most of the game, and his ceiling is very limited. I expected Pitts to potentially break out against a defense that is weak vs the TE, so it was a very disappointing week for him in my view, that just has to do with how this offense is being schemed, not his own play.
Ray-Ray McCloud III: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 20 yards
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
Bryce Young: 16-24, 121 yards | 2 carries, 8 yards, TD
The Panthers won by 30 points, and Bryce Young threw for zero TDs and 121 yards. In some ways, that is all you need to know about this game. There is very little to get into with the Panther side of the ball because of how little they needed to do offensively.
Young handled the pressure by Atlanta fine in this one early, although that was more due to them running it well. He made a good read in the red zone to hold the ball and beat an Atlanta defender to the pylon for his rushing TD. After that play, he did very little of note.
He did misfire once to Tet McMillan and was lucky on a couple of misfires not to get picked. Bottom line is that if Young isn’t forced to throw it 40+ times, he’ll seldom put big fantasy numbers. Just a very limited short-mid passer who needs to be behind and get volume to produce.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard: 17 carries, 73 yards | 3 rec, 2 yards
Hubbard was the best player on the Panthers’ offense. He managed some solid gains vs a tough Atlanta D-Line, which guards vs the run very well. That kept the Panthers in manageable situations all game and allowed Young to stay out of trouble.
His TD streak ended, but all of the Dowdle work came when the game was well out of hand, so there is no threat to his bellcow role. Hubbard also got taken down just short of the goal line late in the game on a pass from Young, so if you owned Hubbard, you did get a little unlucky this week as well. Had Atlanta kept this a little closer, Hubbard easily could have ended with a couple more catches and potentially a score as well (or even 100+ yards rushing).
Again, if someone out there is undervaluing him, Hubbard is a player I would 100% go out and get. He’s game flow proof, and the Panthers will be in close games or behind in games most of the year.
Rico Dowdle: 10 carries, 30 yards TD | 1 targets, 1 rec, 8 yards
People may look at this stat line and think, “Well, here we go, Dowdle is cutting into Hubbard’s workload”. I’m here to tell you that’s not likely to be the case going forward.
This game was absurdly one-sided by the time Dowdle started getting his carries, and his TD came at a point when the game was already over and directly after Hubbard caught a pass to take it down to the 1-yard line. There is also just a direct downgrade to the Panthers’ running game that is easy to see when Dowdle takes the ball vs Hubbard, so it’s hard to say what his value would even be if he took the main carries.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Tetairoa McMillan: 8 targets, 3 rec, 48 yards
McMillan looks fine to me. He was in a tough matchup again and in a spot where Atlanta knew that they needed to shut him down and try to let Young beat them with anyone else. To be honest, the approach worked as they often disrupted McMillan’s targets and kept him from any huge gains. Atlanta was just terrible everywhere else.
McMillan still made some fine plays and had one nice catch where he was able to shake the Falcon CB and get headed upfield before being taken down in the first half. After that, it was mostly short stuff as Carolina went conservative.
McMillan looks like a great talent to me, but just know that his upside is going to be limited by his QB’s arm strength and limitations. He needs volume because Young’s deep ball is so terrible, and he rarely has time to throw deep. McMillan will get good volume most weeks, but just didn’t get much to work with in this game, which was dominated by the Carolina defense and Atlanta’s mistakes.
Hunter Renfrow: 6 target, 2 rec, 6 yards
Without the middle of the field wide open and against a tough pass defense, Renfrow was easily shut down. He’ll be a situational pitch and catch target for Young in catch-up scenarios but useless in weeks like this.
Brycen Tremayne: 2 target, 2 rec, 15 yards
The Panthers schemed up two targets for Tremayne that worked semi-OK early on and then never went back to him. Jalen Coker is due back in a few weeks, and when he’s healthy, these Tremayne targets may dry up quickly.
Ja’Tavion Sanders: 2 targets, 2 rec, 11 yards
Pretty disappointing day overall for Sanders, who was a big part of the offense last week. For some reason, the Panthers continue to scheme up plays for these tertiary players like Tremble and Tremayne, but only use Sanders when they’re in hurry-up mode.
It may have something to do with run blocking, so just take that as a note because in games where the Panthers are down, you’re likely to see more Sanders, who still projects as the Panthers’ second-most talented receiver until Coker is back.