Kickoff: Sunday, November 19th, 2023, 4:25 PM EST
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Betting Odds: BUF -7, 40.0O/U total via oddshark.com
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
New York Jets
Zach Wilson (Sit)
Nope. Just no. The New York Jets shouldn’t be starting Zach Wilson and neither should you. Besides the fact that the Bills are giving up the 5th fewest points to quarterbacks, Wilson has only been a QB2 or better ONE TIME. Thats it. One time this year was he actually startable for fantasy. Sit him. You should probably drop him.
Breece Hall (Start, Flex), Dalvin Cook (Sit)
There is no denying the talent of Breece Hall. He has looked electric and quick. If you didn’t know you wouldn’t see any lingering effects from his knee injury. The issue for Hall is not talent. It’s not the matchup. The Buffalo Bills are giving up the 17th most points to running backs and just let Javonte Williams rush for 79 yards. The issue for Hall is volume. Not because veteran Dalvin Cook is involved more than the offense as a whole is lacking. The Jets are running on average only 60 plays a game which is 6th lowest. Even in Week 10 when the Jets were in a close game with the Las Vegas Raiders, who were a good matchup for Hall he only saw 13 carries.
What is even more concerning is that in the past four games, Hall hasn’t averaged more than 3.25 yards per carry. So what are fantasy managers to do with Hall this week? He should see a decent number of opportunities. In the Week 1 matchup against the Bills Hall saw 12 total opportunities and was able to get into the RB2 range. I think this week I see a slight downgrade due to the Bills being a little tighter on defense and the Jets’ offense taking a few steps backward. Start Hall as a flex play this week with an upside if he can get into the end zone.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR3), Allen Lazard (Sit), Randall Cobb (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit), C.J. Uzomah (Sit)
Garrett Wilson should be a top 5 wide receiver. He should be posting numbers that are in the conversation of top scorers each week. He has seen double-digit targets in the past four games. He gets a decent matchup against the Bills and probably Rasul Douglas. Douglas is rated as the 9th-best corner by PFF.com. We just saw Courtland Sutton have a big day against the Bills but Jerry Jeudy was shut down. So the question is will Wilson have more of a Sutton game or a Jeudy game? I think Wilson will be more towards the Sutton role. He has the trust of his quarterback. The team is trying to get him the ball, evidenced by him attempting a pass which he could have run with and his low air yards. The Jets are working him into screens and shorter passes to allow him to create after the catch and then set up the deep ball. You start Wilson this week and a solid WR3.
After Wilson, you really don’t want to start anyone else. Allen Lazard is dealing with a nagging injury. Randal Cobb has been inactive. Hard Knocks star Xavier Gibson hasn’t been involved. The tight ends are splitting time and targets. It’s just a low-volume passing offense that doesn’t have the quarterback to elevate any player. Garrett Wilson’s skill elevates him over the poor quarterback play. Sit the rest of the Jets’ receiving group
Josh Allen (Start, QB2)
For the first time in my career of writing Sit/Starts, I’m considering sitting Josh Allen. it’s clear that there is something that isn’t working. Whether it is Allen’s decision-making, the play-calling, or bad bounces it’s not great. Way too many turnovers. Then you factor in the tough matchup. The Jets’ defense is giving up the 7th fewest points to quarterbacks and has one of, if not the best cornerback duos in the league. In the Week 1 matchup Allen only had 9.04 fantasy points. The Bills have worked to get other players involved in the game which should neutralize the effect of the corners. Allen still has a rushing upside. I think he can get into the QB2 range but if I have another option I might be looking to pivot
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit)
The New York Jets are not great at stopping the run. They are middle of the road in terms of points surrendered to the position. Enter James Cook who is averaging 5.13 yards per carry. The Bills should be looking to run the ball more as that is not only the easiest way to win against the Jets but also because it keeps the ball out of the hands of Josh Allen and lets him do less. The issue is volume. Cook hasn’t had over 15 carries since Week 3. Lattavius Murray has been taking carries and seems to be the goal-line back which takes away some of the most valuable opportunities from Cook. Given the matchup, you can still start Cook as a solid RB2. Murray and newcomer Leonard Fournette are just handcuffs worth holding but not startable.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Sit), Khalil Shakir (Start, Flex), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE1)
Stefon Diggs got shut down last week by Patric Surtain and the Denver Broncos. The Bills didn’t do a good job moving Diggs around in the formation. Diggs only played 21.4% of his snaps in the slot. Compare that to the Week 1 matchup against the Jets where he played 46.8% slot snaps. It’s a way for the Bills and Diggs to get better matchups. He would see Michael Carter II in the slot, who is rated as the 41st best cover corner which is pretty good but we have seen he can’t compete with Diggs. I think we get a squeaky wheel-type game from Diggs this week even if he doesn’t voice it in the media. Start him as a solid WR1.
The reason Diggs has played less in the slot is because Khalil Shakir has seen a larger role. He is playing on over 65% of the snaps in each of the past three weeks and above 75% last week. 78.6% of the time in Week 10 he was lined up in the slot. He should still see plenty of snaps in that role but the Bills will go back to what was working which is having Diggs there. This puts Shakir on the outside against probably Sauce Gardner who is the 3rd best corner in the league. Shakir will have to make the most of his slot routes. I expect him to get enough volume to be a flex play this week.
Gabe Davis lining up on the outside will get D.J. Reed who rates as the 5th best corner. It’s not a great matchup as we saw in Week 1 when Davis only had four targets, catching two for 32 yards. One of those catches was when Gardner was on him and accounted for 26 yards. I’m sitting Davis this week. He has reverted back to being a boom-bust type play.
Dalton Kincaid has become really the second target option on the Bills after Diggs. The Jets are currently giving up the 7th most points to tight ends. It’s probably the last game before Dawson Knox returns for IR and possibly east into Kincaid’s opportunities. You should be starting Kincaid as a TE1 this week.