Kickoff: Sunday, November 19th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detriot, Michigan
Betting Odds: DET -9.5, 47 total via Odds Shark
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcalm on Reddit)
Jared Goff (Start, QB1)
The highest-graded quarterback according to PFF is none other than Jared Goff. Those who followed my Lions articles last year know I’m a big believer in Home Goff. This year the trend is similar, Goff has eight touchdown passes at home in four games but only six touchdown passes in five road games. Combine that with the fact the Chicago Bears allow the fourth-most points to opposing signal callers (21.20) and I’m pounding the table for Goff as a QB1 this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, High-RB2), David Montgomery (Start, High-RB2)
Last week we got to see the Detroit Lions’ backfield duo shine: Jahmyr Gibbs finished as RB2 while David Montgomery finished as RB12. Both should continue to feast this week against a lowly division rival. I expect the Lions to be up early and run the ball down the Bears’ throats, so fire up either back with confidence.
If your team is blessed with both, but stacked so that you could only start one? I give the nod to Monty in this revenge game. We saw him go off against the Packers in a revenge-esque narrative: he had never beaten the Packers before, and Monty scored three touchdowns when he faced them earlier this year.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Josh Reynolds (Sit, Flex), Jameson Williams (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, TE1)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has more weekly finishes in the top four (2) than he does as WR20 or worse (1). That’s all the analysis you need for the Sun God. He’s a stud. Start him.
Although Josh Reynolds‘ four targets last week were his highest total since Week 5, his two catches for 15 yards left a lot to be desired. I’m only considering Reynolds in deep, deep leagues, where he should only be rostered as a handcuff for St. Brown. Meanwhile, Jameson Williams saw his highest snap count percentage of the season (52 percent) last week and still was only targeted twice. He caught both for 18 yards. His explosiveness is tantalizing, but the volume is just not there to make the 2022 Round 1 draft pick fantasy viable.
Although the Lions put up a season-high 41 points last week, Sam LaPorta was not as involved. LaPorta’s five targets and eight points were both the second-lowest of his young career. I expect a bounce-back week for LaPorta against the Bears, who allow the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends (8.40).
Justin Fields (Start, High-QB2)
After four long, dark, cold weeks the Fields are ripe and ready to harvest. That’s right, Justin Fields is set to return this week. The question is, can you trust him? Before his Week 6 injury, Fields had finishes of 28.9 points (QB3) and 33 points (QB1), so it’s safe to say he was finding his rhythm after a rocky start. The Lions allow the eighth-most points to quarterbacks this season, 20.33 points per game. While it’s fair to harbor concerns about his thumb, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with his legs, which have been a main source of fantasy production for Fields’s fantasy managers. I’m hesitant, but firing up Fields in most leagues in which I roster him.
Khalil Herbert (Start, High-Flex), D’Onta Foreman (Start, Flex), Roschon Johnson (Sit, Low-Flex)
Although he practiced in full last week, Khalil Herbert was not activated off of Injured Reserve last week. Herbert hasn’t played a snap since Week 5 against Washington, the game in which he hurt his ankle. While I expect Herbert to play this week, as of the time of writing this (Wednesday afternoon) there have been no clear updates on his status. I’m saying this now and it will apply to all Bears running backs: I’m low on the Bears’ backfield this week. The Lions allow the fifth-fewest points to running backs, 12.11 points per game.
D’Onta Foreman has been the guy while Herbert has been sidelined. If Herbert is back this week as I expect, Foreman will be relegated to the number two spot in this backfield. I expect the Bears to play from behind most of the game, which doesn’t leave a lot of opportunities for an RB2.
Since Week 1, Roschon Johnson has not had a weekly finish better than RB36. This backfield cannot support a three-headed monster rushing attack. Johnson is the bench warmer of the bunch.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR1), Darnell Mooney (Sit, Low-Flex), Tyler Scott (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, Low-TE1)
I am putting my money where my mouth is. I have continuously stated that the Chicago Bears offense operates through D. J. Moore and this is the week to prove it. No one has missed Justin Fields more (ha!) than Moore. In Weeks 4 and 5, the weeks in which Fields caught fire, Moore finished as WR5 and WR2. Since then, Moore’s best finish was WR21, along with a pair of finishes in the 30s and 50s. I am predicting a Top 10 finish for Moore this week. Fields wants to prove rumors of Chicago drafting a quarterback to be nothing more than fan fiction. The Lions allow the tenth-most points to wide receivers they face (22.56 points per game). The Lions have allowed 20 points in all but one game, so I expect a shootout in this divisional matchup.
Week 8 was fun for Darnell Mooney, with five catches on six targets for 82 yards. Besides Week 8 and Week 1, Mooney has finished as WR 45 or worse. Mooney has some value as a flex since I expect this to be a high-scoring game, but I’m still not starting Mooney unless desperate. Meanwhile, Tyler Scott finished Week 9 with -0.5 points. Anyone who started him deserved that. The WR3 of the Bears has no fantasy value. The Bears have thrown to wide receivers 150 times this season, the fourth-fewest in the league.
Last week, Cole Kmet had seven targets, and that was low for him considering the previous two weeks he had eight and ten, respectively. Fields was at his best this year in Weeks 4 and 5, and Kmet had three touchdowns in that span. With Fields back in the lineup, his favorite red-zone target should get some solid target volume. I like the touchdown upside of Kmet this week, as well.