Kickoff: Sunday, November 19th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Betting Odds: MIA -13.5, O/U 46 via OddsShark
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O’Connell (Sit, Low-QB2)
The Raiders have won two straight since forcing HC Josh McDaniels to take a fully paid four-year leave of absence, but they are still undecided on the future of their fourth-round rookie, Aidan O’Connell. This may be his biggest test yet. At least for fantasy purposes.
In his two recent starts, O’Connell has played reasonably well, game-managing his team to back-to-back victories, and not doing anything to hurt his team in pivotal moments, even against a stout Jets D that has held in check elite names like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and more. Up until this point, he really hasn’t been asked to do much, but if the game plays out like Vegas is predicting, the Raiders will not be able to rely on their run game to carry them through this one.
The Dolphins are projected to hover around 30 points this week, which is the highest on the slate, and it will be up to O’Connell to keep them in the game. The Dolphins come in 24th to opposing fantasy QBs, which looks good on paper, but the return of Jalen Ramsey has been an enormous boost to the defense. The Raiders currently sit with a team-implied point total of 16.75, which is not encouraging for the offense. O’Connell should not be in consideration in standard leagues, but with four teams on bye, he does provide low-end QB2 potential due to expected volume and game script.
Josh Jacobs (Start, Low-RB1), Zamir White (Sit), Ameer Abdullah (Sit)
Josh Jacobs’ season isn’t quite as stellar as last year’s, but he is still delivering for fantasy purposes, and continues to be one of few remaining bellcow RBs in the league. He currently averages 21.6 touches/game, with games of 29 and 26 touches since O’Connell has taken over, and comes in as RB13 in PPG. Jacobs rushing upside may be limited as heavy underdogs in this one, but his receiving skill set will keep him on the field, and we have seen O’Connell hyper-target his RB before, with 81 yards on eight receptions (11 targets) in his first-ever start in Week 4. Jacobs’ volume makes him a must-start every week, and with an expected pass-heavy game script, I’m counting on Jacobs to earn a few extra receptions, finishing this week as a low-end RB1.
Ameer Abdullah out-snapped Zamir White 10-1 last week, but neither did anything of fantasy relevance. Abdullah remains the pass-catching, third-down back in the offense, while White is a deeper league handcuff.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, Low-WR2), Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3), Hunter Renfrow (Sit), Tre Tucker (Sit), Michael Mayer (Start, TE2)
If you squinted hard enough, you may have been fortunate to get a rare Davante Adams sighting last week. I’ve been preaching for weeks that this new regime needs to get him involved if they want any chance of winning and/or keeping him on the team next year, and they certainly made their best efforts last week with 13 targets. Accuracy was an issue of course, but Adams is an elite talent, and was able to turn six receptions into 86 yards against a solid Jets secondary. This week, Davante will take on a middling Miami defense in regards to opposing fantasy WRs (17th in PPG). If the Dolphins choose to shadow Adams with Jalen Ramsey, he may have a more difficult day, however, Ramsey has played 95% of his (limited) snaps on the right side this season, and Adams can create mismatches all over the field. Adams has gotten the best of Ramsey before, but this is a new team, new environment, and new QB at the helm, leaving a lot more question marks going into this matchup, as evidenced by the past few weeks. Last week’s performance landed Adams at WR21 on the week, which is about where I’m predicting him again this week, assuming he’s receiving catchable targets. It’s up to you now, Aidan O’Connell.
Jakobi Meyers has all but disappeared the past few weeks, with no more than two receptions or 38 yards in any of the last three games. Game script should get Meyers back involved this week, and I believe he will return solid WR3 value with a more typical 5-7 targets. With that being said, his volume has the potential to be even higher than this if the Dolphins choose to focus their attention on stopping Davante. Meyers should provide a high floor as a WR3 option against the Dolphins.
Hunter Renfrow and Tre Tucker have not contributed much for fantasy purposes and should not be on your radar this week, or even more likely, this season.
Michael Mayer may also see a potential increase in targets this week, as the Dolphins come in 20th in PPG to opposing TEs. Dolphins’ LB David Long Jr. is enjoying his best statistical season in most categories, currently ranking as the 18th overall LB according to PFF, but the only area he has been lacking is in coverage, where he comes in 71st out of 80 qualified players. That’s all we care about for fantasy. Mayer has a low floor, putting up no more than 19 yards in any of the past five games, but he may have bullied his way into more targets after an amazing touchdown grab last week. Mayer doesn’t have elite upside, but if you’re desperate for a TE, he’s got a positive game script and a reasonable matchup on his side. Consider him a stream-worthy TE2 this week.
Michael Mayer MOSSED him‼️ pic.twitter.com/247lSGaRth
— PFF (@PFF) November 13, 2023
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
The Raiders’ secondary has played well this season, ranking 8th in PPG to opposing fantasy QBs, but truthfully, I don’t care one bit. The Dolphins are the highest-scoring team in the league, and have the highest team-implied total on the slate, at 29.75. Coming off a bye week, I’m expecting fireworks in Miami. Tua Tagovailoa comes in ninth in PPG, and with a fully healthy cast of weapons, there’s no reason to shy away from this matchup.
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2), De’Von Achane (Start, RB2), Jeff Wilson (Sit, FLEX)
The Raiders come in 26th in PPG to opposing RBs, so they are typically a matchup we want to target. However, this backfield is going to be difficult to dissect until we know more. Raheem Mostert, at age 31, has defied all odds this season, not only enjoying by far his best statistical season but also his healthiest in recent memory. Mostert is currently RB4 in PPG, and is paying dividends to anyone who took a late-round pick on him.
The health of this RB room will need to be monitored this week, as Mostert (ankle/knee) was limited in practice on Wednesday, along with De’Von Achane (knee), the absolutely electric rookie who has been on IR the past four weeks. For what it’s worth, reports have been positive for Achane in practice so far, but we won’t be able to confirm his status unless he gets in at least one full practice. If one of the two is out, the other is automatically bumped to RB1 status. If they’re both in, they should both be in your lineup, and one (if not both) will likely finish as an RB1, depending on where the touchdowns fall this week.
Jeff Wilson has only returned FLEX value in one of the three weeks he has been available, and should only be in consideration if one of the two above is unavailable this week. Even then, his usage still hasn’t been promising.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), Cedrick Wilson (Sit), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit, TE2)
Hmm. Decisions, Decisions.
Tyreek Hill is ranked the WR1 both on the season and in PPG. The Raiders secondary has performed well this year, but there isn’t a single matchup on PFF that doesn’t favor Tyreek. With that being said, it’s worth noting that two of the three matchups (Marcus Peters – PFF’s 33rd-ranked coverage CB, and Nate Hobbs – PFF’s 22nd-ranked coverage CB) are listed as “Good” instead of “Excellent,” which is truly a rarity. Anywho, start Tyreek.
Tyreek Hill went undercover in Germany and surprised a fan 😂 pic.twitter.com/9cWYuHlC2E
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) November 9, 2023
Jaylen Waddle, on the other hand, has been far less consistent after a stellar WR8 finish last season. Waddle (knee) came up with an injury early in the Chiefs’ contest two weeks ago, but was able to return and finish the game. Waddle has already stated that this bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for him to heal up, and all reports from practice have been positive. Just like Tyreek, Waddle is used all over the formation, and has projected favorable matchups on both sides, specifically against Amik Robertson (PFF’s 76th-ranked coverage CB), but against Marcus Peters (PFF’s 33rd-ranked coverage CB) as well. The former first-round pick is a prime candidate for a second-half breakout, and should be a buy-low target as trade deadlines approach. Despite the Raiders coming in 6th in PPG to opposing WRs, I’m not hesitating to fire up Waddle as a WR2 this week.
Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios continue splitting snaps, but Wilson has been able to find more relevance with two touchdowns on two receptions over the past two games. Neither is consistent enough in this offense to trust, and should not be in your lineups this week.
Durham Smythe has exactly three receptions on three targets in each of the last two games, but was only able to gain 28 and 17 yards, respectively. He was DNP (ankle) on Wednesday, but even if he is available, he is not a viable option for fantasy purposes.
– Nick Beaudoin