Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 8, 2024, 4:25 ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Network: FOX
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Start, QB1
Josh Allen is the current QB5 and is on pace for an MVP-caliber season, so he’s a lock starter every week. He’s had top-7 finishes at the QB position in all of his last 4 games, mostly attributed to scoring a rushing TD in each of his last 3 games. This may come as a surprise but the Rams’ defense is bottom 10 in EPA/play and has the 7th worst EPA/pass. When accounting for the Bills’ offensive EPAs, this matchup is the 2nd highest differential in any game this week behind only Carolina at Philly. With how successful the Bills looked in a snow bowl against the Niners last week, playing in SoFi should be a walk in the park.
Running Back
James Cook: Start, RB2
Ray Davis: Sit
Ty Johnson: Sit
James Cook is the RB12 on the season and has scored 7 TDs in the past 6 games, but there is some cause for concern when looking at his snap counts. Cook was on the field for no less than 53% of snaps in all but 1 game (in Week 2) prior to Week 11. These past two weeks he’s averaging only 41% of snaps as Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have gotten more involved. This may be the coaching staff managing his touches to keep him healthy down the stretch going into the post-season, but Cook’s efficiency has made up for his decrease in snap share. He’s tied for 13th in yards per rush among RBs this season and is 11th in rush yards over expectation per NextGen Stats. This matchup isn’t one to avoid, so keep Cook safely in your lineup and hope his efficiency continues to outweigh his decreased volume.
Wide Receiver
Khalil Shakir: Start, WR2
Amari Cooper: FLEX Option, WR3
Keon Coleman: FLEX Option, WR4
Curtis Samuel: Sit
Mack Hollins: Sit
Khalil Shakir is the one steady rock in this receiving room as he’s seen over twice as many targets as the other WRs at a 21% target share on the season. He’s one of the most consistent fantasy assets there is, as he’s scored between 10-20 fantasy points in 9 of his 11 games played (one of the two was last week’s 7 points in the snow game). Shakir should be locked in your lineup if you have him, and managers of Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman should consider a potential FLEX play for either of them. The Rams have allowed an average depth of target of nearly 8.0 yards, the 11th most in the league. They also have the 5th worst rate of yards after the catch allowed. The target share isn’t a guarantee, but this would be a good matchup to look for in what should be a high-scoring game.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid: Streaming Option, TE2
Dawson Knox: Sit
The frustrations for Dalton Kincaid this season hit its peak with the knee injury he suffered in Week 10. He did log a limited practice this Wednesday, marking a meaningful step forward to suiting up this weekend. When he was healthy, he was the team’s 2nd leading target behind Shakir however his catch rate was uncharacteristically low. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, so if he plays he could be a good TE to have in your lineup – but the first game back from a knee injury for a guy averaging 3.4 receptions and 35.6 yards per game this season with only 2 TDs should generally be avoided another week if possible. Even if Kincaid fails to find the field this week, Dawson Knox showed no legitimate signs of filling a meaningful role and should not be considered for any starting lineups.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford: Streaming Option, QB2
Matthew Stafford’s streak of playing every offensive snap this season appears like it should stay intact as he practiced in full on Wednesday (ankle). He’s been on a hot streak these last three weeks throwing for 8 TDs and the biggest change is no interceptions – he had thrown an interception in 6 straight games until that point. This week will be a test though, as the Bills have created the 3rd highest rate of scrambles and have the 5th highest interception rate. Not to discredit how good of a defense Philadelphia has (when Stafford was the QB8 on the Week with 19 points from 243 yards + 2 TDs), but the Eagles rank 8th and 17th in those same metrics respectively. Stafford is a veteran in a groove and has a great coach in McVay, so he remains a top streaming candidate, but there are likely better QBs with easier matchups to look for.
Running Back
Kyren Williams: Start, RB2
Blake Corum: Sit
Kyren Williams is the RB9 on the season and has been a machine scoring at least 1 TD in 9 of his 12 games played. He was undoubtedly a bell cow seeing over 79% of snaps in every game, until last week. His snap share took a dip to 68%; and while that still leans heavily in his favor, Blake Corum was handed the reigns for an entire drive. Sean McVay has been known to employ running backs by committee and has a track record for making adjustments in his backfields, so this was a scary sign to Williams’s managers. It’s not enough to take Williams out of your lineup or start Corum, but it’s something worth noting and monitoring.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua: Start, WR1
Cooper Kupp: Start, WR2
DeMarcus Robinson: Sit
Tutu Atwell: Sit
Puka Nacua’s biggest challenge this season is simply staying healthy, but when he’s good to go he’s one of the best there is. He’s now gone 4 straight weeks with over 17 fantasy points in PPR as he’s soaking up 11 targets per game and has found the endzone twice in the last 3 weeks. The Bills’ pass defense is not as strong as the rush, and Buffalo’s offense has the ability to get into the lead early so the Rams may quickly turn Puka’s way. And while the veteran Cooper Kupp has taken a back seat to Puka’s dominant target share, the Bills allow the lowest aDOT in the NFL. This is the area where Kupp maintains the edge over Puka’s downfield routes, so this very well could be a game for Kupp to keep up with Puka. Outside of these two WRs are slim pickings though. DeMarcus Robinson has been limited in practices with an injured hand, yet neither he nor Tutu Atwell has seen enough targets these past few weeks to be viable starters.
Tight End
Colby Parkinson: Sit
Between their superstar receivers, there’s not much meat left on the bone for Colby Parkinson. He’s averaging barely 1 target per game since their Week 6 Bye, and should strongly be considered dropping to waivers with Tyler Higbee returning off the PUP list in the near future.