Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 8, 2024, 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Sit, QB2
Kirk Cousins has had some moments this season, but they’ve been few and far between. He’s coming off a dreadful performance in his last outing, tossing four picks at home against the Chargers. Now, he’ll have to go on the road and face a coaching staff that is extremely familiar with him. They’re also an elite defense that brings pressure at one of the highest rates in the league. Cousins has struggled mightily against pressure this season, and he’s finished as QB20 or worse in seven of his 12 starts. You probably can’t avoid him entirely in Superflex leagues in a week where six teams are on bye, but there’s very little to like about him vs. the Vikings.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson: Start, RB1
Tyler Allgeier: Sit
Bijan Robinson‘s early-season struggles are well in the rear-view mirror at this point. He’s finished as a top-nine option at the position in six of his past seven starts, and he’s been inside the top four in four of them. His usage has also moved in the right direction. He’s played on 74% of the team’s offensive snaps over his past four games, and he’s racked up 64% of the carries. More importantly, he’s been one of the busiest backs in football as a pass-catcher, racking up an 18% target share in that split. Between his pass-catching usage and touchdown upside, he’s a slam-dunk RB1 every single week.
Robinson’s recent explosion has come at the expense of Tyler Allgeier. He hasn’t finished inside the top 35 at the position in six straight weeks, and in a game where the Falcons are expected to play from behind, that seems unlikely to change.
Wide Receiver
Drake London: Start, Low WR1/High WR2
Darnell Mooney: FLEX Option, WR3
Ray-Ray McCloud: Sit
Despite their quarterback struggling for most of the year, the Falcons’ receivers have provided value for most of the season. That starts with Drake London. He’s their clear alpha, racking up a 28% target share and 37% air yards share for the year. That said, he hasn’t been quite as good recently. He’s finished outside the top 30 at the position in three of his past five weeks, though he did bounce back slightly in Week 13. On a positive note, the matchup vs. the Vikings stands out as quite good for fantasy purposes. Even though their defense has solid numbers overall, they’ve still allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Darnell Mooney doesn’t have the same floor as London. He’s put together back-to-back clunkers, finishing with three catches for 20 yards vs. the Chargers and two catches for 27 yards vs. the Broncos. Still, his ceiling is pretty good. Mooney ran a route on 98% of the team’s dropbacks last week, and he owns a 22% target share for the year. If he can maintain those marks vs. the Vikings, he should put together a start-worthy performance.
Ray-Ray McCloud is the wild card. He’s seen tons of snaps this season, and anyone who’s on the field as much as he is has some semblance of value. That said, he’s posted just a 15% target share, and he’s yet to crack the top 25 at the position. He’s worth owning as a bench option, but he’s not actually worth starting.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts: Sit
It feels like fantasy players have finally reached their breaking point with Kyle Pitts. He may have all the natural talent in the world, but it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll never put it together at the NFL level. He has just a nine percent target share over his past four games, and he’s finished outside the top 30 at the position in three of those outings.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: Start, QB1
It may not be pretty with Sam Darnold, but he’s gotten the job done more often than not for fantasy players all year. He’s the No. 9 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s finished as a top-12 option at the position in nine of his past 12 outings. There’s no reason to shy away from him vs. the Falcons, who have been a friendly matchup all season. They’re 22nd in dropback EPA defensively, and they’ve allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back
Aaron Jones: Start, RB2
Cam Akers: Sit
Ty Chandler: Sit
Aaron Jones has operated as the Vikings’ clear lead back when healthy for most of the season. However, we saw things change slightly in Week 13. He still had the majority of the opportunities — he had a 51% snap share and 42% carry share — but Cam Akers and Ty Chandler ate into his workload enough to drop him out of RB1 territory. It’s possible that was just a one-week outlier, but it’s something to keep your eye on moving forward. The bigger issue is that the team barely had any of the ball on offense, which limited the running backs to 11 total carries. That won’t be the case every week.
While Akers and Chandler did enough to hamper Jones, neither player did enough to have any standalone value of their own. Akers is a desperation flex option at best — and that’s being optimistic — while Chandler is not startable in any capacity.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson: Start, WR1
Jordan Addison: FLEX Option, WR3
The Vikings have a clear-cut top two at receiver: Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Jefferson is the alpha. He’s racked up a 30% target share for the year, which is tied for the third-best mark at the position. He’s also handled 39% of the team’s air yards, and he’s the No. 6 receiver in terms of fantasy points per game. The only reason he hasn’t had a better year is his five touchdowns, which puts him well behind some of the other top receivers in fantasy. PFF credits Jefferson with 6.6 expected receiving touchdowns — the fifth-highest mark among receivers — so he could be due for some positive regression moving forward. That could definitely happen vs. the Falcons, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
With Jefferson carving out such a big piece of the receiving pie, it doesn’t leave a ton for the rest of the receivers. Addison’s 19% target share for the year is uninspiring, but he’s been at 23% or higher in three straight games. He’s a bit of a boom-or-bust option, but there are reasons to start him in a great matchup.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson: Start, TE1
Josh Oliver: Sit
T.J. Hockenson was one of the best tight ends in fantasy before getting hurt last season, and he’s picked up right where he left off. He has an 18% target share through his first five outings, and he’s finished as a top-five TE in two of those contests. His floor might not be as high as some other fantasy tight ends, but he’s definitely worth starting vs. the Falcons.
Josh Oliver has maintained some relevance despite the return of Hockenson, and he has two touchdowns in his past four games. Still, he’s running a route on less than 50% of the team’s dropbacks with Hockenson back in the fold, so he’s best left on the waiver wire. I have him around TE30 for Week 14.