Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, December 26, 2024, 8:15 ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Network: Prime Video
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith: Sit, QB2
Geno Smith has had some startability at times this season, but those weeks have been few and far between of late. He’s coming off a QB7 finish last week vs. the Vikings, but he finished as QB20 or worse in each of his five previous games. The Bears have been a bit exposed defensively of late, but they’ve still allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Smith is a viable QB2 for superflex leagues, but you can hopefully do a bit better in one-QB formats.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker: Start, RB2
Zach Charbonnet: Sit, RB4
Kenny McIntosh: Sit
Kenneth Walker returned to the Seahawks lineup last week, and he immediately stepped right back into a starring role. He wasn’t quite as involved as a runner as in weeks past — he handled 57% of the team’s carries — but he made up for it with his work in the passing game. He was targeted on a whopping 44% of his routes run, his third straight game with a TPRR of at least 26%. That’s an elite mark for a running back, and it gives Walker a solid floor in a strong matchup vs. the Bears. Their defense has been more vulnerable on the ground this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
With Walker back in the fold, Zach Charbonnet can safely be placed on the bench. He played on just 22% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps last week, which was nearly the same amount as third-string RB Kenny McIntosh. Charbonnet saw just one carry and two targets, so he’s not a viable option without another injury to Walker.
Wide Receiver
Jaxson Smith-Njigba: Start, WR2
DK Metcalf: Start, WR2
Tyler Lockett: Sit, WR4
DK Metcalf remains a physical freak of nature, but I think it’s safe to say that Jaxson Smith-Njigba has passed him in the team’s pecking order. Smith-Njigba posted a 29% target share in Week 16, and he had a gaudy 40% mark the week prior. Metcalf has been below 20% in both outings, so JSN has entered high-end WR2 territory. He posted a top-10 finish at the position last week, and he’s finished as a top-20 scorer in five of his past six outings.
While Metcalf’s reduced volume isn’t ideal, he’s still on the radar as a low-end WR2 for fantasy purposes. His big-play ability means he’s capable of doing significant damage regardless of the number of targets he sees. He had a 25-yard touchdown in Week 16, and he still racked up 36% of the team’s air yards. He’ll likely need another score to live up to the billing, but that’s certainly within his range of outcomes.
Tyler Lockett continues to play a nearly every-down role as the Seahawks’ WR3, but that hasn’t resulted in much fantasy production. He’s had a target share of just 4% over his past three contests, so he’s not worth a starting spot vs. the Bears.
Tight End
Noah Fant: Sit
Noah Fant is the Seahawks’ clear top tight end in terms of snaps and targets, but he’s not getting enough volume to put him on the fantasy radar. He’s finished outside the top 15 at the position in five straight games, and he has just two top-10 finishes overall this season. There’s no reason to deploy him in a subpar matchup.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: Streaming Option, QB2
Caleb Williams has had an up-and-down rookie season. When he’s playing well, it’s easy to see why he was selected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Those moments have happened a bit more frequently since the Bears changed up their offensive coaching staff. He’s finished as a top-five scorer at the position in three of his past five outings, including last week vs. the Lions.
Still, Williams still brings a tangible floor to the position. He takes way too many sacks, which limits his team’s ability to put points on the scoreboard. He checks in somewhere around QB15 for me vs. the Seahawks, so he’s better suited as a QB2 than a QB1.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift: Start, RB2
Roschon Johnson: FLEX Option, RB4
It gets harder and harder to go back to the well with D’Andre Swift every week. He’s finished outside the top 20 at the position in five straight games, and he’s been pretty ineffective overall: he’s averaged just 3.8 yards per carry for the year. Still, his volume is good enough to keep him just barely in the RB2 conversation. He’s handled 65% of the Bears’ carries this season, and he does just enough as a receiver to matter. The biggest reason for his fantasy dry spell is zero touchdowns over his past five outings, so he should be able to crack the top 20 if he finds the paint on Thursday.
Roschon Johnson returned to the Bears’ lineup in Week 16 after missing the past two weeks, but he was limited to just 27% of the snaps. He saw just one carry and zero targets, so he is far from a must-start vs. the Seahawks. However, if the Bears can manage a more favorable game script than they had vs. the Lions, Johnson should factor more into the equation. He was receiving roughly one-third of the team’s carries before getting injured, including most of the short-yardage opportunities.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen: Start, WR2
D.J. Moore: FLEX Option, WR3
Rome Odunze: FLEX Option, WR3
The Bears have one of the most talented receiving corps in football, and that has started to pay dividends over the past few weeks. Keenan Allen has emerged as a borderline WR1. He’s finished as a top 15 option at the position in four of his past five outings, and he’s commanded an alpha-like 28% target share for the year. That number has been even higher of late, posting target shares of 45% and 33% in his past two outings. He can be started confidently vs. the Seahawks, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.
D.J. Moore is right on the WR2/WR3 borderline, but he ultimately falls just outside the top 25 in my rankings. Moore is just slightly behind Allen with a 26% target share for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 28% over the past five weeks. He’s finished as a top-30 option at the position in all five contests, though his ceiling hasn’t been quite as high as Allen’s.
Rome Odunze also has just enough viability to warrant starting. He’s the clear No. 3 receiver in this offense, but he still has a 20% target share for the year. His average depth of target (aDOT) comes further down the field than both Allen and Moore, so he’s arguably the best big-play threat of the bunch. His production is a bit more volatile, but his ceiling is high enough to justify a flex spot.
Tight End
Cole Kmet: Sit, TE2
With the Bears’ top-three receivers soaking up so much usage, it doesn’t leave much for the rest of the roster. Cole Kmet managed to find the end zone last week, but he ultimately finished with just two catches for nine yards. He’s posted a target share of just 5% over his past four games, so he’s not worth considering vs. the Seahawks. When he doesn’t find the paint, his floor is absolutely cavernous.
No mention of how yall feel with Hollywood Brown? He looked decent last week with limited reps even