Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, December 28, 2024, 1:00 ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Network: NFL Network
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Streaming Option, QB2
Justin Herbert remains one of the game’s premier young talents, but he’s stuck in an offense that slightly neuters his fantasy production. He hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at the position since Week 11, though he did have a QB14 finish last week vs. the Broncos. The Chargers aren’t going quite as run-heavy as they were to start the year, so Herbert is at least getting more opportunities to make plays. The Patriots have been exploitable this season — they’re 31st in pass defense EPA — but that hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy production for opposing QBs. They’re merely 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and they did a good job of shutting down Josh Allen in Week 16. Add in the fact that this will be an outdoor road game on the East Coast, and there’s just enough risk to make Herbert better suited as a QB2 than a QB1.
Running Back
Gus Edwards: FLEX Option, RB3
Kimani Vidal: Sit, RB4
Hassan Haskins: Sit
Since J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury, Gus Edwards has served as the team’s top fantasy running back. He hasn’t commanded nearly the same workload as Dobbins did, with the team using a clear committee in his absence. However, Edwards is getting the majority of the carries most weeks, as he did in Week 16 vs. the Broncos. He’s also the most likely of the bunch to punch in a short touchdown, which makes him the clear target in this backfield. He finished with 68 yards and two scores last week, and that’s within his range of outcomes in a game that the Chargers are expected to win.
Unfortunately, neither of the other RBs in Los Angeles has done enough to warrant starting consideration. Kimani Vidal took a step back in both snaps and carries last week, and he hasn’t finished inside the top 40 at the position since Week 6. Hassan Haskins has played a bit on third downs, and while he managed a touchdown last week, it was his first score in 15 games this season. In fact, it was his first game with a single target this season, and he hasn’t had a carry in each of his past three outings.
Wide Receiver
Ladd McConkey: Start, WR2
Quintin Johnston: Sit, WR5
Joshua Palmer: Sit
Ladd McConkey has served as the Chargers’ top receiver as a rookie. He owns a respectable 25% target share for the year, though his 28% air yards share isn’t quite what you’re looking for in a top fantasy receiver. McConkey did miss a game recently due to injury, but he’s been in the lineup the past two weeks and has responded with 6.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, 72.5 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns in those contests. He’s a low-end WR2 vs. the Patriots, but he’s basically reached must-start territory.
He’s the only member of the Chargers’ receiving corps worth considering. Quintin Johnston leads the team with eight receiving touchdowns, but that’s basically all he brings to the table. His ceiling isn’t particularly high even when he finds the paint, and his floor is pretty cavernous when he doesn’t. Josh Palmer got to serve as the Chargers top receiver while McConkey was sidelined, but he’s provided minimal production as the team’s WR3 for most of the year.
Tight End
Stone Smartt: Sit, TE2
Stone Smartt has served as the Chargers top tight end with Will Dissly out of the lineup recently. Even with Hayden Hurst returning in Week 16, Smartt still led the position group with a 68% route participation and 14% target share. That said, those numbers aren’t really good enough to warrant a spot in your lineup. He’s outside the top 20 at the position for me in Week 17.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Sit, QB2
Expectations for Drake Maye were so low as a rookie that it’s hard not to be impressed by what he’s done. He’s playing behind a terrible offensive line with one of the worst groups of pass-catchers in the league, but he’s somehow making chicken salad out of chicken…you know. Still, it’s not quite enough to warrant a starting spot in one-QB leagues. He’s finished somewhere between QB12 and QB18 in seven straight weeks, so he’s been a remarkably consistent QB2. But in the fantasy championship? You probably want someone with a bit more upside.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson: FLEX Option, RB3
Antonio Gibson: Sit, RB4
The Patriots are employing more of a committee at running back than we’ve seen in years past, which has limited Rhamondre Stevenson‘s upside. He played on just 42% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, which put him significantly behind Antonio Gibson.
However, Stevenson still had more carries than Gibson, and he was far more effective on those touches (5.0 yards per carry vs. 2.8). He was also the guy who managed to find the paint for New England, though he had to take it in from 14 yards out. Gibson actually got the carries from inside the five-yard line, so he might take over as the team’s goal-line back moving forward. That’s another knock against Stevenson, which keeps him firmly in the flex tier instead of the RB2 tier.
Gibson’s underlying profile looks pretty promising—particularly his work in short-yardage and pass-catching situations—but it’s hard to trust the RB2 in a poor offense. Ultimately, I’d try to avoid this situation entirely if I could.
Wide Receiver
Kayshon Boutte: FLEX Option, WR4
Demario Douglas: Sit, WR5
Kendrick Bourne: Sit
If you’re absolutely desperate to find a startable wide receiver in New England, Kayshon Boutte seems like your best bet. His metrics from last week won’t blow you away—23% target share, 44% air yards share—but they’re the best you’re going to find in this receiving corps. He did manage to catch a long touchdown last week, which propelled him to a strong fantasy showing, but it’s hard to trust that happening regularly.
DeMario Douglas has been the Patriots’ most consistent receiver for the year…but that’s not worth much. He’s been targeted on 19% of his routes run for the year, but his routes are trending in the wrong direction. He’s run a route on 60% of the team’s pass plays or fewer in back-to-back weeks, so he can be pretty safely benched vs. the Chargers.
Kendrick Bourne had a big spike in routes last week, checking in a 74%, but he ultimately saw just two targets. Unless you get points for cardio, he’s not worth considering.
Tight End
Hunter Henry: Streaming Option, TE2
Hunter Henry has been the closest thing to a top option in New England this season. He owns a 20% target share for the year, and he had a 23% mark last week vs. the Bills. He ultimately caught his second touchdown of the year in that outing, and he had at least eight targets for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Henry would be a low-end TE1 most weeks, but he has to be downgraded slightly in this matchup vs. the Chargers. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, so he dips just barely outside the top 12 in my Week 17 rankings.
No mention of how yall feel with Hollywood Brown? He looked decent last week with limited reps even