Sit/Start Week 1: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Monday, September 11, 2023, 8:15 pm EST

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Betting Odds: NYJ +3.5, 75.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com

Network: ESPN/ABC

Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (Start, QB1), 

No one out there is not starting Josh Allen. You invested a ton in your draft to get him and you are going to lock him into your quarterback spot and not look back. It’s a primetime game that Vegas believes will be a shoot-out. Allen will be looking to come out and beat the new-look Jets and Aaron Rodgers. The Jets do have a solid secondary which could limit the upside of Allen this week, but his rushing ability should keep him in the QB1 range. That’s what he was in the two games against the Jets last year, and with the Jets being better on offense he should have to sling it more.

Running Backs

James Cook (Start, RB2), Damien Harris(Start, Flex) 

I was down on James Cook heading into the preseason. I thought Damien Harris would command more touches and it would be closer to a 50/50 timeshare. Harris was dealing with a nagging injury and Cook got all the work. The second-year running back should get enough work to be a solid RB2 for your fantasy team. People are excited about his pass-catching ability even though we haven’t seen it yet. Even without it, Cook should be fine.

Damien Harris is a startable flex play for one reason only: he can be a touchdown vulture. He may not see more than 10 total opportunities in the game, but if he can get into the end zone then he has value. It’s risky to play a touchdown-dependent player, but on a high-powered offense in a projected high-scoring game, it’s worth the risk this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Stefon Diggs(Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Sit, flex), Khalil Shakir (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit, TE2), Dalton Kincaid (Sit, TE2)

There has been plenty said about Stefon Diggs and his outlook on the team and his role with it, but when the lights come on and he straps on the helmet for meaningful football he will be 100% committed. Now he does have to face Sauce Gardner, but the Bills last season were able to move Diggs around and get him off the top coverage. In the two games against the Jets, he had 15 total targets. I expect the Bills and Josh Allen to be intentional about getting Diggs the ball. He should be in your lineup as a WR1.

Are post-hype sleepers a thing? If so Gabe Davis is one. He has morphed from a touchdown-dependent Boom/Bust player to a consistent wide receiver. He had 10 games last season with over 5 targets. He will have to deal with some tough coverage, but his route running and the ability to stretch the field make him tough to cover. The Bills get creative in how they line up players to give them the best matchups. Davis is a sneaky flex play. He didn’t fair well against the Jets last season and I’m not sure the Bills have done enough to be able to get him the desired high-quality targets you want from a flex play. I would sit him this week.

The same can be said about second-year player Khalil Shakir. He didn’t have the greatest preseason. He looks to only be out on the field in three-wide sets and will be battling others for those snaps and targets. He’s worth monitoring to see how he is used but you can’t start him this week.

The tight end position in Buffalo has been all the talk since the Bills traded up to select Dalton Kincaid in the later part of the first round. People are expecting big things from the rookie but I’ve been telling people to temper their expectations and I will continue to do so. Kincaid is a rookie which takes time to develop. He is also fighting for snaps not only with Dawson Knox but also with Shakir for slot snaps. The two tight ends are going to eat into each other’s targets and opportunities. They become touchdown-dependent plays.

New York Jets

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB2)

I know what you are going to say. Aaron Rodgers as a QB2?! What’s wrong with you? Well, let me explain. First,  Rodgers only had two weeks last season where he was in the QB1 range. Yes, he is on a new team with better pass-catching weapons, but they are also playing a tough defense. The Bills have one of the deepest secondaries in football. Not only at the corner position but also at safety. He was probably a late-round pick for you and he will be good for fantasy but I’m lowering expectations for him. His upside just isn’t there. He doesn’t run and will need massive passing numbers to get there which at his age seems out of the question.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook (Start, RB2), Breece Hall (Start, Flex) 

The signing of Dalvin Cook has me worried for Breece Hall. He is coming off of a major knee injury. He currently isn’t practicing and they say he is going to play in Week 1, but I have doubts about his availability and usage. Hall was dynamic last year before the injury so you have to expect that again when he is back to 100%. I’m just worried he isn’t 100%. He should still get some carries and be effective with them. The Bills D was not the greatest at stopping the run last season. Where you got Hall in drafts means you probably need to start him but I’m only expecting him to be in the high flex range.

Dalvin Cook was let go by the Vikings not because of play but due to contract. He took his time and weighed his options before he signed and picked the Jets. It would indicate that he believed in where they were going and the role he would have in that offense.  Cook is a good pass-catching back which looks to be heavily used in a shoot-out type game. He is an effective rusher who should see the bulk of the carries while the Jets ease Hall back into the run game. He should be started as an RB2. He has an RB1 upside but Hall will eat up enough work to keep him out of that range.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Garrett Wilson (Start, WR1), Allen Lazard (Start, Flex), Randall Cobb (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit), C.J. Uzomah (Sit)

I’ve said all offseason that I believe Garrett Wilson could have a Dionte Johnson-like season. He could be in line for a ton of targets but lack the touchdowns. He should still be a solid play this week. He did well in both games against the Bills last season finishing as a WR2 and a WR3. The Bills had a ton of injuries last year in the secondary during those games and that won’t be the case this year, but the upgrade at quarterback should overcome that. Wilson is just one play away from breaking a game wide open and Rodgers is the quarterback who can execute those types of plays.

Allen Lazard is one of Aaron Rodgers’s favorite targets and that has become even more evident by the reports that he was requested by Rodgers. He is a massive red zone threat who might not always see a ton of targets but I would put him down as a highly likely touchdown scorer each week. He did see more than five targets in 11 separate games last season. He will benefit from top coverage and safety help leaning towards Wilson’s side of the ball. Start him as a flex play this week.

Randall Cobb was the other notable receiver that Rodgers wanted on the Jets when he was traded there. Cobb is nothing more than a slot receiver, and while he has the chemistry with Rodgers he won’t see enough playing time to be fantasy-relevant. The Jets will try to be a balanced team and run the ball when the score is close. Just because Rodgers trusts him doesn’t mean you should in your fantasy lineup.

The tight ends for the Jets should really be an afterthought. First off, Rodgers doesn’t throw to the tight end position. Second, none of the guys here are super talented. Ty Conklin is probably in line to be the starter but it has been a while since we have seen him produce. C.J. Uzomah is big and presents a large target to throw to but doesn’t get schemed into the play often. I’m sitting both of them if I even have them on my fantasy roster. In deeper dynasty leagues I’m watching Jeremy Ruckert to see what he can do.