Sit/Start Week 1: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 10th, 12:00 PM CDT

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Betting Odds: HOU -2.5, 43.5 total via Odds Shark

Network: Fox

Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence (Start, QB1)

After a bounce-back year two season, Trevor Lawrence has jumped up draft boards in 2023. Lawrence is currently being drafted as the QB8 on Underdog Fantasy, and he should be locked in as your QB1 almost every week. This week is no outlier, as the Jaguars should win this game fairly easily, but with the over-under at 45.5, there’s a chance Lawrence will be on the field a lot. 

Running Backs

Travis Etienne (Start, RB2), Tank Bigsby (Sit)

Travis Etienne should be highly involved in week one, and I love the matchup here. Not only will Etienne see a lot of rushing work if the Jaguars jump out to a lead, but he should see an increased role as a pass catcher. Coming out of college, Etienne was viewed as a tremendous pass-catching prospect, yet he only caught 35 balls last season. Tank Bigsby shouldn’t cut into Etienne’s workload much, especially not in the first game of the season. 

Although Bigsby looked great in the pre-season, we need to pump the brakes a bit. The Jaguars spent a first-round pick on Etienne as opposed to Bigsby, who was drafted in the third round this past year. Bigsby is a premium handcuff, and you can only start him in a great matchup. While Bigsby is a good runner, he should see almost all of his work between the 20s. 

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Calvin Ridley (Start, WR3), Christian Kirk (Start, WR3), Zay Jones (Start, Flex), Evan Engram (Start, TE2), 

Calvin Ridley has looked great so far this off-season, but I’m hesitant to start him as a WR1 or even WR2 this week. Ridley hasn’t played in a regular season contest since 2021, and we’ve seen time and time again that players often need time to get back into the groove of things. You shouldn’t expect a dud performance from Ridley, but it’s also important to note that he’ll likely need some time to return to his former self.

Christian Kirk remains one of the most underrated players in fantasy, and I’m more than comfortable starting him as my WR3 this week. Even though his upside is limited, Kirk can go out and average 14 PPG from the slot. I want as many pieces as possible in what should be a high-powered Jaguars offense this season. Ridley will take away some of Kirk’s week-to-week upside, but he should still be a focal point in the slot week in and week out.

Due to the Calvin Ridley hype this off-season, it’s easy to forget that Zay Jones was a big part of this offense in 2022, averaging 12.4 PPG. As we talked about with Kirk, Jones’s role will shrink with the arrival of Ridley, but he’s still a good player in an electric offense. I don’t love the matchup for Jones this week, as this game shouldn’t be a massive shootout, but he should still be involved. Jones should see enough volume in this game to justify starting him in your flex spot.

Evan Engram had a bounce-back season last year, averaging 10.4 PPG, yet I expect him to see a dip in production heading into 2023. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and Engram will now be competing with Jones to be the number three option. I don’t see a world where Engram gets much better than last year when he had 98 targets. Although this offense should improve, Engram will see a massive drop in targets due to the emergence of Etienne and Ridley. Engram will still have a role in this offense; however, in a game where the Jaguars should lead, I don’t see the upside for a TE1 week.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson (Start QB2)

Heading into week one, Anthony Richardson has arguably the widest range of outcomes at the quarterback position. Richardson was drafted 4th overall in the 2023 NFL draft, but many view him as a project-type player. Although Richardson is a great runner with an unreal arm, there are a ton of concerns about his decision-making as a passer.

The concerns about Richardson’s passing are valid, considering he had a 53.8 completion percentage in college and a 44.8 percentage on 29 attempts this pre-season. You should still be starting Richardson as a QB2 this week, but purely because of his rushing upside.

The Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites, which should keep the ball in Richardson’s hand for most of the game. In a 1QB league, you shouldn’t start Richardson, but in a 2QB format, you should feel fine with him at the helm.

Running Backs

Deon Jackson (Start, Flex), Evan Hull (Sit)

Jonathan Taylor has officially been placed on the PUP list, which means the Colts have to look elsewhere for their starting running back. Zack Moss is currently ahead of Deon Jackson and Evan Hull on the depth chart, but it’s unlikely he’ll play in week one due to his broken right arm.

Jackson has shown he’s a good pass catcher with upside. We saw it last year with a 28.1-point performance, but other than that, he was a serviceable flex. In the games where he had ten or more touches, he averaged 14.8 PPG. I expect the Colts to use a committee, and Richardson is unlikely to check the ball down a lot. That said, you can start Jackson as a fringe flex play this week.

Hull is an intriguing rookie, but you can’t start him this week. Hull is a good pass catcher; however, he was a 5th-round pick in the 2023 NFL draft. As the season progresses, there’s a chance Hull will earn a bigger role in this offense, but rookies typically start slow. This low draft capital and unfavorable game script means you shouldn’t start Hull this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Michael Pittman (Start, WR3), Alec Pierce (Start, Flex), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit), Mo Alie-Cox (Sit)

Michael Pittman is no longer an elite-level option, but you should still be starting him in a game where the Colts will be trailing. Pittman will see a majority of the targets on a depleted Colts wide receiver core. Even if Richardson will hold him back, you can still count on him as a WR3 this week due to his target share in the offense.

Alec Pierce will be a deep threat for the Colts, which I don’t mind in this game environment. Pierce was a former second-round draft pick, and the talent is there. The Colts should be forced to air it out, which will benefit Pierce. Pierce should be a fringe flex play, but he has big play upside on any given week.

Isaiah McKenzie has never been great in fantasy, and I don’t expect that to change this week. McKenzie will likely be the fourth option on this team, and there’s no way Richardson will be able to support him. Other than two 20-point games last season, McKenzie was unstartable. This trend should stay true with fewer 20-point games. The bottom line is that you shouldn’t often start McKenzie in 2023.

Continuing with this theme, Mo Alie-Cox hasn’t been fantasy-relevant in the past, and that won’t change this week. Alie-Cox has never averaged more than 6 PPG in a season, and there are no signs of this changing. You shouldn’t be starting Alie-Cox this week or almost ever this season.

– Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)