Sit/Start Week 1: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, September 7th, 2023, 8:20p Est

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Betting Odds: KC -6.5, 51.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com

Network: NBC

Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)

Detroit Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff (Start QB1),

Jared Goff was a surprise last year to those who weren’t paying attention. After getting traded to Detroit back in 2021 he has been a solid starter for the Lions. He missed time in 2021 but in a full season last year, Goff posted 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions en route to a QB10 fantasy finish. He benefits from an upgraded offensive line this year as well as two new weapons in Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Chiefs have a good-but-not-great defense and the over-under line is very high, leading to some gaudy implied point totals. Goff should have to throw it 40+ tomes to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs, so expect plenty of volume. While he doesn’t have a rushing upside to vault him into a top 5 category, he will still put up QB1 numbers.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, Flex), David Montgomery (Start, RB2)

Last season the Lions were set to deploy the duo of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. This offseason, they transformed that pair into Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Montgomery should be the first guy to get opportunities as the bigger back with NFL experience. I don’t expect 18 rushing touchdowns this year like Jamaal Williams had last season but he should still be slated for double digits. The Chiefs run defense will take a hit if Chris Jones doesn’t play, and it appears he won’t. Gibbs is the pass-catching back which should be the role needed as the game progresses, so both should be started. I like Montgomery as an RB2 this week. His early down volume combined with his efficient running will provide plenty of fantasy points. Tack on a few goal-line tries and he could sneak into the RB1 range. Gibbs will see passing work which gives him a solid floor as a flex play. We have yet to see his true potential at the NFL level but I like what I saw in his college tape.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Amon-Ra St Brown (Start, WR1), Marvin Jones (Start, FLEX), Sam LaPorta (Sit)

The Lions’ star wide receiver Amon-Ra St Brown had 146 targets last season and looks to match or possibly exceed that this season. He will be seeing tough coverage from Trent McDuffie or possibly L’Jarius Sneed. It’s the type of coverage that could lead to a lower week for most but the way St Brown runs routes he is the type of receiver who can beat coverage. He will need double-digit targets to get to WR1 range but he will get them in this game.

Marvin Jones fills in as the WR2 on the team while Jameson Williams sits out due to a gambling suspension. Jones only had four games above flex range last year with the Jaguars. He was previously with the Matthew Stafford Lions and had two seasons where he was productive, albeit in his younger years. The older Jones slides into a very different role this week, so I don’t expect him to repeat those numbers from yesteryear. He is still a potential flex play this week: the matchup should be fine and with the other pass-catching weapons seeing their first real NFL action, Jones’s veteran experience might be called upon.

Sam LaPorta was drafted by the Lions this year to fill the void created by trading away T.J. Hockenson last season. LaPorta will have to adjust to the NFL speed, which proves to be a struggle for most tight ends. Brock Wright might be the main guy early in the season but neither is worth starting right now. I expect LaPorta to eventually be the main tight end and a top-three passing option for the Lions, but don’t count on that this week.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)

Start Patrick Mahomes. Yup, it’s that simple. Need more reasons why? How about the fact that he was a QB1 in 14 games last year? How about the fact that the Chiefs have a massive win record at home and on opening weekend? The Chiefs added some good weapons this offseason to complement Travis Kelce. The Lions’ secondary is middling, young, and inexperienced. Mahomes should be able to use his creativity to put up points at will. The only holdup will be if the Lions can’t keep pace and the Chiefs switch to a run-heavy scheme to eat up the clock, but by then, Mahomes will have lit up the scoreboard.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco (Start RB2), Jerick McKinnon (Start, Flex)

First, let me just say that Clyde Edwards-Helaire shouldn’t be started or rostered. He is done, no matter where the Chiefs put him on the depth chart. He became obsolete when Isiah Pacheco took over. Pacheco is the perfect running back for the Chiefs system. He is a decisive north-south runner who has speed and creativity. He averaged 4.88 yards per carry last season and looks to build on that this season. He faces a tough rush defense in the Lions but Andy Reid’s creative play-calling should allow Pacheco to get the ball in space, where he’s a load to bring down.

Jerick McKinnon is the third-down pass-catching back who will have value this year as a flex play. Even in a game like this, he will struggle to see enough volume to get out of the flex range. He did have that in the later part of the season but needed touchdowns to become a true fantasy factor. He is a great asset to have and his value would increase if Pacheco went down with an injury. Early in the season last year he wasn’t overly involved and the same could be true this year. The Chiefs play their running backs in very specific roles and McKinnon’s role could be game scripted out if the Chiefs get a lead and want to run the clock down.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Kadarius Toney (Start, WR3), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit, Flex), Skyy Moore (Sit, FLEX),  Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)

The Chiefs have been able to win Super Bowls despite not having a true wide receiver one. They have done it on the back of tight end Travis Kelce. He was your first-round pick and will be locked into your lineup as long as he is healthy. He is a coverage beater. After Kelce it’s a crapshoot of who will be the next man up. Last year Juju Smith-Schuster was the guy but the Chiefs have overhauled the receiver room with JuJu now in New England.

Kadarius Toney was brought over last year to bolster the receiving room. He has dealt with health issues in the past and starts the season with a knee issue that has kept him out of practice. He is expected to be ready for the Thursday night game but if the knee flares up, it could sink his fantasy value. I’m still willing to start him as a WR3 and hope he can stay healthy all game. He should be second behind Kelce for targets.

After Kelce and Toney, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be productive in any particular game. There is a lot of buzz around Skyy Moore.=, who disappointed as a rookie, but now looks healthy and poised to take the next step. I worry about his lack of involvement last season. He is fast and elusive, important skillsets to have in the Chiefs offense but I worry that he runs himself out of plays as Mahomes improvises more and more. I’m not starting him until I see a consistent snap share.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a history with Mahomes after playing with him last year but was wildly inconsistent. He had only had four games in which he was above flex range, and those were spread out across the season. He has a good shot at getting into flex point range this week but I’m not hanging the first week of my fantasy season on him having a massive game. There should be better, higher-floor players to slot into your flex spot. The same can be said for Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross: they are athletic players but their floors are so low, they can’t be relied on. Monitor them as possible pickups if they have a bigger role in the offense than we currently expect them to have.