Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 21st at 1 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Betting Odds: BUF -7, 49.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Carson Wentz (Sit, QB2)
Carson Wentz and the Colt’s passing game came back to earth in week 10 against the Jaguars. It was a game I expected Wentz to shine but a defensive touchdown put the Colts up early and they never trailed in the game. Wentz did have 34 passing attempts which were top 4 this season in terms of attempts. He just didn’t push the ball down the field because he didn’t need to. With only 5.29 yards per attempt, Wentz managed the game and handed the ball off 23 times. The rushing game for Indy is starting to heat up. This is a good thing for Wentz as he doesn’t need to force throws and can take what is given to him. It may cap some of his upsides and against the best defense in the league, I think it’s a week to bench Wentz. There are plenty of other options at the QB positions. Some are every week starters and some jump into the conversation with better matchups. If the Bills have a weakness on defense it’s against the run so I expect the Colts to rely on that over having Wentz passing the ball.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB1), Nyheim Hines (Sit), Marlon Mack (Sit)
As I just said if the Bills have a weakness on defense it’s against the run. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the league. I expect the Colts to run early and often. It was only a few weeks ago that Derrick Henry rushed for 143 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Bills. Even Carlos Hyde had 67 rushing yards in week 9. The game has a high over/under so there should be points scored in the game and I expect Taylor to have a touchdown on the ground. He continues to lead the team in carries and targets which has made Nyheim Hines fantasy irrelevant. Marlon Mack has been either a nonfactor or inactive for the past few weeks. You are starting Taylor and no one else from the Colt’s backfield.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr (Start, WR2), Zach Pascal (Sit), Parris Campbell (Sit-IR), T.Y. Hilton(Sit), Ashton Dulin (Sit), Jack Doyle (Sit, TE2), Mo Allie-Cox (Sit)
The Colt’s passing game has a down game in week 10 but there were some things to be excited about. Michael Pittman still had 71 yards on 5 targets/receptions which was tied for second on the team in terms of targets. He will continue to be the main focal point of the offense moving forward. Talent-wise he is better than anyone else on the Colt’s team. Veteran T.Y. Hilton also received 5 targets but only caught one of them for 5 yards. Going against the top defense will limit the opportunities for the Indy wide-outs. Zach Pascal only saw 2 targets in week 10 and despite having a long of 12 yards only managed 9 total yards. For those who cant do the math, that means his other catch was for -3 yards. Running backs and Tight ends have been eating up a lot of targets in recent weeks. Jack Doyle had 5 in week 10 which was tied with both Hilton and Pittman. Wentz has a propensity to throw to the tight end position in general. Mo Allie-Cox got 2 targets and rookie Kylen Granson got a target. With a tough matchup, it looks rough for the pass catchers from Indy. The over-under would indicate that someone will score but it’s hard to predict who that will be. Pittman is the best option there talent-wise. I will bring up the name Ashton Dulin as someone to keep an eye on.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen is getting back on track as a top-end quarterback in the NFL and in fantasy. He gets a great matchup in week 11 against the Colts. CBS has the Colts rated 30th in giving points to the QB position. Allen comes in off a game where he completed a season-high 75% of his passes for 366 yards, 2 scores, and 1 int. The Bills are starting to run the ball more which normally would mean more upside for Allen who had 431 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns in 2020. Allen and the Bills have seemed to figure out how to utilize the passing weapons and are getting healthy at the right time. With a 49.5 over-under, there will be scoring. The Colts have a great defense against the run so the Bills should be putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands.
Running Backs
Zack Moss (Start, RB2), Devin Singletary (Sit) Matt Bredia (Sit)
If you just look at the box score for week 10, you are looking at who DIDN’T score a rushing touchdown for the Bills against the Jets. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary both had 7 carries in the game but Singletary was more efficient with those carries. The snaps and carries could be in part to Moss coming in with limited practice after clearing the concussion protocol late in the week. With the limited practice, Matt Bredia also got some work in the offense. He got 3 carries for 28 yards and a score. He also added a touchdown through the air, giving him a surprising performance for fantasy. It’s not something you can count on. Going against a solid rushing defense in Indy I don’t see a ton of yards for the Bills running tandem. Moss has seems to be the lead back in recent weeks despite Singletary looking better on his runs. Moss gets the red zone work and the pass-catching work which makes him the back I would want out of these two.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR2), Emmanuel Sanders (Start, Flex), Cole Beasley (Sit, Flex), Dawson Knox (Sit, TE2) Gabe Davis (Sit) Isaiah McKenzie (Sit)
Finally, Stefon Diggs had a game. Week 10 was only his second game this year over 100 yards receiving and gave him his 4th touchdown of the season. Diggs is a top wide receiver option heading into week 11. With the momentum on his side and the Colt’s porous pass defense, Diggs should continue his dominance in the targets on the team. He has 17 more targets than Cole Beasley on the season. Beasley had a down game in week 10 but before that had back-to-back games with over 10 targets per game. He is also second on the team in red-zone targets with 11, trailing only Diggs who has 17. He hasn’t done much with those targets, only having 1 touchdown on the season. The opportunities are there and make Beasley a possible flex play in PPR leagues. Emmanuel Sanders has been outperforming his opportunities, scoring 4 touchdowns on the season, and is playing on a team-high 81.5%. It’s hard to not want to start all the pass-catching options for Buffalo in this game. I think Diggs is a no-brainer and Sanders is good to go with his snap counts. I think Beasley could be flexed in a situation but with averaging only 63% of the team snaps his opportunities are limited. Both Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie both had good games in week 10 but those are outliers on the season. Dawson Knox returned from injury and has a disappointing week 10. He was red hot before his injury so you can’t be faulted if you start him in week 11 but I will wait for a matchup where the wide receivers aren’t going to be getting fed left and right.
-Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit)