Kickoff: Sunday, November 21st, at 4:25 PM ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Kansas
Betting Odds: KC -1.5, 55.5 over/under total via Oddsshark
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
Can we stop for a moment and talk about the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL right now? No, you haven’t jumped to the Chiefs section yet. I’m talking about Dak Prescott. Dak is one of 3 Qbs to only have 1 game this season with less than 2 total touchdowns. It’s him, Tom Brady, and Joe Burrow. Games with under 3 touchdowns Dak is sitting alone at 1. That’s high-end fantasy production week in and week out. Dak faces a weak passing defense in the Cheifs so he should continue to produce at a high level. He has a legit chance at being the top QB in week 11. If there is a knock on Dak it’s his lack of yards, he currently ranks 13th. He is however completing 70.3% of his passes which is 2nd in the league. All this comes on low passing attempts which isn’t the greatest news but if he is producing with the 22nd most volume in the league, his numbers will increase if he gets into a shoot-out with Patrick Mahomes.
Ezekiel Elliott (Start, RB1), Tony Pollard (Start, Flex) Corey Clement (Sit)
The Cowboys have been a run-first team for years. You can go back to the Emmitt Smith days. Now they have a great tandem with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys run the ball on 43.92% of the time. That puts them at 10th most in the league. Zeke and Pollard face a middle-of-the-road KC run defense in week 11 so they should be able to be effective enough to be used all game. With a high over/under the rushing game doesn’t project to be the focal point for the Cowboys but they should still be used. Elliott is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and Pollard is at 5.4. Zeke is the clear-cut one on the team. He has seen 40 carries over the past 3 weeks compared to 22 for Pollard. This also comes off a week 10 game where Corey Clement got 6 carries in a blowout win. With the Chief’s poor passing defense and a high-powered offense Pollard could see more work in the passing game out of the backfield. You are starting Zeke in every case. If you were a Zeke owner you were super happy with his 2 touchdowns in week 10 and hope that continues week 11.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1), Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), Michael Gallup (Start, Flex), Cedrick Wilson (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE2)
The Cowboys came into the season with one of the best wide receiver trios in the league. Michael Gallup got injured in week 1 but made his return in week 10. With Gallup back in the fold, the Cowboys dominated the Atlanta Falcons and look to continue their passing dominance against the Chiefs. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have traded spots back and forth on who will get the most targets each week. Lamb has had a slightly better season with 73 targets compared to Coopers 65. They are both utilized and worthy of starting especially in a 55.5 spread game. Both Cooper and Lamb are red-zone targets and should compete for touchdowns. Gallup’s return does steal some targets away from the top 2 and he is worth starting as a flex in good matchups like week 11. Tight end Dalton Schultz has benefited from Blake Jarwin going down to injury. Schultz should continue to be a low-end tightened 1 option with upside in good matchups. The return of Gallup does mean fewer targets to go around to other options and that will probably affect Schultz more than most.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Patrick Mahomes had fantasy managers worried for a few weeks. Weeks 7 through 9 He had only 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He turned it around in week 10. He posted a career-type game throwing 5 touchdowns and 406 yards with no interceptions. Mahomes has been hit or miss this year but no one is benching him in fantasy. he does benefit from facing a Cowboys defense that is ranked 14th by CBS. He does have to navigate the coverage of Trevon Diggs who seems to either get the pick or lets up big plays.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Start, RB2) Darrel Williams (Sit), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was close to returning in week 10 so his return in week 11 seems likely. I’m going on the assumption that he will play and project accordingly. CEH should see the majority of the carries but there is a chance that Andy Reid tries to ease him back in the system. If the latter does come true Darrel Williams will continue to get carries. I think they run CEH like they did before he got injured. This sounds like a great thing for the returning rusher who had two 100 yard games before going out. The issue is the Dallas-run defense is very good. CBS has them ranked 5th in giving up points to the running back position. This could mean less straight carries and more short passing work. In the first 4 games of the season, this is what the opportunities looked like
|Week 1||14 carries/ 3 targets||1 carry/ 0 targets|
|Week 2||13 carries/ 0 targets||3 carries/ 0 targets|
|Week 3||17 carries/ 2 targets||7 carries/ 3 targets|
|Week 4||14 carries/ 3 targets||10 carries/2 targets|
Those numbers don’t look too great in terms of passing work for the running backs. We can look at week 5 where Mahomes threw for 5 touchdowns and the running backs combined for 5 targets in that game. Week 10 Mahomes also passed for 5 touchdowns and the running backs received 10 total targets. It’s a sign that they may be willing to throw to the running backs more and Edwards-Helaire did have some good pass-catching skills in college. I think you can only play CEH this week. If he is out I would roll Williams in my RB2 spot instead.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Mecole Hardman (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start), Byron Pringle (Sit), Josh Gordon (Drop)
The Kansas City Chiefs have been waiting and trying to find a complementary piece to Tyreek Hill for so long and the wait continues. Travis Kelce and Hill are the only real two pass-catching options you can start in this game. Even with a 55.5 over/under and a game script that says the Chiefs should be passing a ton against a bad pass defense no one else has stepped up. Mecole Hardman is 33 targets behind Kelce for the year and 55 behind Hill. After that, it seems like Byron Pringle would be the next man up. Pringle played on 61% of the team’s Week 10 snaps compared to Hardman’s 32%. Josh Gordon has been a non-factor on the offense only having 4 targets over 6 weeks. Demarcus Robinson is listed as the team’s second wide receiver yet hasn’t played over 50% of the team’s snaps in the past 3 weeks. If I had to take a flyer on someone it would be Hardman based on being second on the team in red-zone targets with 9. He still trails Hill who has 20. Hill will draw top coverage from the Cowboys in Trevon Diggs but he has been susceptible to deep plays which are Hill’s specialty.
– Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit)