Kickoff: Sunday, November 21st at 1:00 PM ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Betting Odds: SF -6.5, 45.5 total via Oddsshark
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo (Sit)
Jimmy Garoppolo has been solid these last few weeks and holding off rookie Trey Lance for the time being. Jimmy G was efficient in his 19 attempts last week, tossing multiple touchdowns for the third time this season however it is his lack of volume that holds him back as a weekly fantasy asset. He has just three games with 25 or more attempts. This week he faces a Jacksonville defense that has been surprisingly stingy in its last five games. The Jags are allowing just 233 yards and less than one touchdown per in its last five. In a game where the 49ers will want to run the ball, Jimmy G shouldn’t be a start.
Jeff Wilson (Start, RB2 if Mitchell out), Elijah Mitchell (Start, Flex if healthy)
A week after rookie Elijah Mitchell returned from a hip injury and was eased in Week 9, Mitchell took a monster share of the carries with 27 in Week 10. While Mitchell managed just 9 points last week, the indication is clear, Mitchell is operating as the lead back for San Francisco. However, after last week’s game, the team announced Mitchell broke his during the team’s victory Monday over the Rams. The indication is Mitchell will “be fine” but it is worth monitoring. If Mitchell can play, he is a low-end RB2 in a game that the 49ers will try and establish the run.
If Micthell can’t go, then Jeff Wilson immediately becomes a solid flex-start. Wilson is a talented back and handled 23% of the team’s carries last week. He would take a lion’s share should Mitchell miss time.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Deebo Samuel (Start, WR1), Brandon Aiyuk (Sit), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
Deebo Samuel had another monster performance on Monday, closing in on 200 fantasy points on the year and currently the overall WR3. The team even used Samuel as a ball carrier five times, including one score. Whether or not Samuel continues to get carries remains to be seen but Samuel has established himself as a true breakout on the season. Deebo is an easy WR1 this week and the remainder of the season.
George Kittle has back-to-back games dominating defenders since coming back from his injury. A week after his first 100-yard game, Kittle caught five balls and scored again. Kittle’s season stats may not look all that impressive but he is TE6 on a per-game basis. Start Kittle without hesitation.
The breakout season many expected from Brandon Aiyuk has been premature. Aiyuk has worked his way back into a full-time role, but the combination of being the third target in the passing game and a low-volume passing attack has been difficult for him to overcome. If Kittle or Samuel misses time, then Aiyuk becomes a much more attractive option, but at the moment he is impossible to trust.
Trevor Lawrence (Sit, Low-end QB2)
It has been a tough rookie season for Trevor Lawrence. With a combination of bad game scripts, Jacksonville is 31st in time of possession, injury to weapons, and an offense that seems lost at times, Lawrence is just the QB23, with just one QB1 weekly start and three games of 20+ points. San Francisco’s pass defense is a positive matchup, 25th in the league, but that doesn’t make Lawrence a safe start. This season will be about development, and while he is a hold in dynasty he holds little value in redraft.
James Robinson (Start, RB2 with upside)
James Robinson returned to the lineup, after missing a game and a half with a heel injury. While the team eased him into the lineup, Robinson managed an RB1 start. It was his fifth weekly RB1 finish, a mark he has hit 62% of his starts this season. However, he has been somewhat boom or bust, finishing with less than 10 points in the other three games. Still, in this landscape where managers are struggling to find reliable options in the backfield, JRob is an easy fantasy start. San Fran is league average defending the position and has allowed seven scores to the position in the past five weeks. He is an easy start this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marvin Jones (Sit), Jamal Agnew (Start, Low-end Flex), Laviska Shenault (Sit), Dan Arnold (Start, Low-end TE1)
One of the most disappointing aspects of the Jaguars’ 2021 season has been the lack of consistent play from their outside receivers. Since D.J. Chark was lost for the season early in Week 4, the team has topped 300 yards passing once, and just three passing touchdowns. Marvin Jones has all but disappeared these last three weeks, after a solid performance in Week 6. Jones is playing in a full-time role but with little production, he is hard to trust in lineups. Likewise, Laviska Shenault has been a ghost since being forced outside. It is a role that he struggles with, catching just five balls on 26 targets against press coverage. Instead, Jamal Agnew has emerged in the role built for Viska, as a slot and part-time force as a ball carrier. Desperate managers could do worse than taking a chance on Agnew, but he is a low-end option. But for now, Viska should not even be rostered.
One silver lining for fantasy managers on this offense has been Dan Arnold. Arnold had this thrid straight TE1 week, and fourth in five games. Arnold is now leading the team in target share and has become Lawrence’s preferred target in most situations. Arnold is a strong start this week, and moving forward.
-Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77)