Kickoff: Sunday, November 22nd at 4:05 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: MIA -3, 46 total via Oddsshark
Tua Tagovailoa (Sit, QB2)
Tua Tagovailoa had a mediocre fantasy performance last week that saw the rookie total less than 15 fantasy points. Tagovailoa didn’t impress throwing the ball, either, as he nearly threw two interceptions to the Chargers. The Broncos are pretty much right in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and have a similar ranking in passing yards allowed. Tua should be an uninteresting QB2 option this week.
Salvon Ahmed (Start, RB2), Matt Breida (Sit), Myles Gaskin (Sit)
With Matt Breida inactive with a hamstring injury, Salvon Ahmed received 84% of the Dolphins’ rushing attempts last week with 21 carries and 16 fantasy points. Ahmed ran well, be he won’t be quite the PPR asset that Gaskin was. Salvon could be worthy of another start if your fantasy team needs an RB fill-in and Ahmed gets the lead-back duties again. Matt Breida logged a full practice on Wednesday, but it seems like this is Ahmed’s backfield anyway until Myles Gaskin returns. I believe Gaskin still has at least another week on IR ahead of him, though. If Ahmed gets the nod once again, he should be capable of RB2 numbers even if Breida is in the mix. Salvon had an RB2 performance against the Chargers last week, and the Broncos are allowing similar points to running backs (and more yards).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (High-end WR3), Jakeem Grant (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start-able TE2)
DeVante Parker has had a bad streak over the past five games with only 8.9 fantasy points per game. DeVante’s lackluster stretch came to its lowest point last week when Parker only tallied two catches for 5.1 fantasy points. The Broncos are right in the middle of the league when it comes to points allowed to wide receivers, but that’s not making me feel much more confident in Parker’s opportunity this week.
Jakeem Grant had his best fantasy performance and his first touchdown of the season last week. I wouldn’t get too excited, though. Grant got his usual five targets and would have tallied his typical eight-point fantasy performance without the touchdown. He won’t be any more trustworthy this week than he has been all year.
I may be a little lower on Mike Gesicki than most, but I’m having a tough time trusting him (even with the tight end wasteland this year). Gesicki has only reached TE1 territory twice this year and is averaging 3.75 fantasy points per game over his past four. To make matters worse, the Broncos are a top-12 team against tight ends this year. It seems like Gesicki’s targets increased a bit with Tua under center, but he still only averaged 4.5 targets over the past two weeks. Considering the shallow tight end pool this year, Mike should be start-able this week. That said, I’m not expecting a TE1 performance.
Drew Lock (Sit, QB2), Brett Rypien (Sit), Jeff Driskel (Sit)
Drew Lock has a muscle strain around his ribs and could be in danger of missing Week 11 if practice reports indicate a worse injury than we initially thought. Still, Lock was a low-end QB2 option before any injuries are taken into account anyway. The Dolphins have been pretty middle-of-the-road in points allowed to quarterbacks and passing yards allowed, but that isn’t enough for me to get excited about Lock in standard-sized leagues.
Melvin Gordon III (Sit, High-end Flex), Phillip Lindsay (Sit, Flex)
Melvin Gordon III has been a big disappointment over the past four weeks. He’s averaged just 7.75 fantasy points per game over that span and hasn’t topped 50 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 7. Worse yet, the Denver offense is struggling, and their line is folding like a cheap suit. I’m sure some fantasy managers are dealing with plenty of injuries that have no choice but to start Gordon, but he doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Phillip Lindsay is still taking a back seat behind Gordon. He’s had more rushing attempts than Gordon only once this year, and his ceiling will likely remain low for the rest of the season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Start-able WR3), Tim Patrick (Sit, Flex), KJ Hamler (Sit), DaeSean Hamilton (Sit), Noah Fant (Start, TE1)
Jerry Jeudy has become the best outside receiving option on the Broncos this year. Unfortunately, being the best receiver on a struggling offense with poor quarterback play doesn’t translate to consistent fantasy production. Jeudy will have WR2 upside nearly every week but will fall somewhere around WR3 territory more often than not this year.
Tim Patrick hasn’t been a very sexy fantasy option this year, but he’s put up some pretty consistent numbers, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game over the last six. Patrick isn’t quite start-able in standard leagues but could be worth some flex consideration in deeper leagues.
DaeSean Hamilton hasn’t been consistent enough to warrant any fantasy consideration this year. He’s only scored two touchdowns and achieved double-digit fantasy points twice this year. Similarly, KJ Hamler only has two games with double-digit points and has been a fantasy afterthought.
Among a sea of tight end coin-flips, you could certainly do worse than Noah Fant. He seems to be over his ankle injury and has seen at least seven targets in three of his last four games. Even with Miami allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year, I believe Fant should be capable of TE1 numbers this week.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse)
Does DJ Moore become a sit if Bridgewater is out? I have other options such as Hunt, Chark or Lazard but have been going back and forth on who becomes my flex play this week. (Thomas, Cook and Jefferson are starting). I know little about PJ Walker and what he brings to the table. Love your version of start/sit. It’s far more comprehensive than most.