Kickoff: Thursday, November 19 at 8:20 PM ET
Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Betting Odds: SEA -3, 57.5 Total via Oddsshark
Kyler Murray (Start, Overall QB1)
Your current overall QB1 and the top player in fantasy is Kyler Murray who is held up by his elite rushing floor. Not only does he have 17 touchdowns through the air, but he has also added a whopping 10 on the ground through nine games. He is also averaging 67.1 rushing YPG. That is what we were expecting from Lamar Jackson this year, but to the delight of managers that drafted Murray, they got Lamar for a big discount. Now going against the second most generous passing defense in fantasy, Murray will be looking to repeat his 360/3 line through the air and 67/1 line on the ground in a narrow victory against Seattle in Week 7. That game soared past the over with 71 total points and we should expect nothing less this week as Arizona has put up 30+ points in all but three games this season. Coming off a Hail Mary win last week, look for Murray to stay hot as the entire offense for the Cardinals.
Kenyan Drake (Start, Flex), Chase Edmonds (Start, Flex)
Kenyan Drake returned from injury last week to see 16 carries and 100 yards on the dot. This is a good sign for a consensus first/second round turn pick in drafts this season. With another week healthy, we should see an uptick in usage. However, this may not translate into many points in PPR as Kyler Murray is the goal-line back for the Cardinals with his 10 rushing touchdowns. This relegates both Drake and Chase Edmonds to Flex duty. Edmonds is actually having a safe floor week to week as he is involved in the passing game. Even with Drake back, Edmonds still scored double digits and has only seen single-digit games in three of nine games so far this year. Look for Edmonds to continue to be involved in the passing game this week and feel free to use both as flex plays this week. If you have both of them, however, I would suggest using Edmonds as the safer option in a high scoring game than Drake. Drake is the play in standard leagues.
DeAndre Hopkins (Start, WR1), Christian Kirk (Start, WR2)
If you haven’t seen the catch that DeAndre Hopkins made in Week 10 to end the game and pull off an improbable comeback win over the Bills. Before that catch, Hopkins looked to be headed for a respectable 6/84, but after the 43 yard Hail Mary, he ended with a 7/127/1 stat line which looks more like what we expect from DHop. Last time against Seattle, DHop put up 10/103/1 on 12 targets, and we should view the yards and score as his floor in this one. There have been some head-scratchers, however, as Hopkins has alternated 20+ point performances with 11 or fewer points since Week 3 now. Some of that can be chalked up to DHop being limited with an ankle injury and a non-competitive game against the Cowboys, but you can expect a high floor/high ceiling game against the worst defense against the position in fantasy. Christian Kirk had a down week last week, going 4/27, but this week he gets Seattle which is a get right game after going for 20+ in Weeks 6-9, one of which included a 5/37/2 line against the Seahawks. The much lower floor is baked into his WR2 suggestion here, but he still has a 20+ point ceiling as he has proved he can sustain that. Plug him in with confidence this week.
Russell Wilson (Start, QB1)
After starting the year blistering hot, Russell Wilson has thrown multiple interceptions in 3 of the last 4 games, which includes two last week to go along with zero touchdowns. He also lost a fumble last week. Regardless of the multiple games with multiple interceptions, he is still the overall QB2 and just had his first game under as anything other than a high-end QB1 as he put up under 10 points in Week 10. You can expect that to be an anomaly as he is set to be in what has the chances of being the highest-scoring game of the week in total points. He will have to throw it a lot to keep up with Kyler Murray on the other side, and his ability to get 20+ rushing yards in all but two games this season gives hope of a decent floor as well. Wilson is locked in as a top 3 play at the position.
Chris Carson (Start, RB1 if active), Carlos Hyde (Sit, start as RB2 if Carson is inactive), DeeJay Dallas (Sit)
After being hampered by injury, Chris Carson got in a limited practice on Tuesday and looks to have a good shot to play this week. This would bump the likes of DeeJay Dallas out of the picture and those that had hoped for Carlos Hyde to be a solid streamer Thursday would be disappointed. Over the first five weeks of the season, Carson scored double digits in every game with an RB1 average of about 17 PPR PPG. He now gets to face the team that he went on the shelf against in Week 7 and a high-scoring game has a chance at touchdown upside with how often teams should be in the red zone. Not always known for his ability to catch the ball, Carson has seen steady work as a receiver when healthy as he has at least three receptions in every game he wasn’t injured in, adding six catches twice. If he is not active, however, look for Hyde to take over and be less productive, but still worthy of a play as DeeJay Dallas had a multi-score game to his credit while Carson was down, displaying the value of whoever is the starting running back behind Russell Wilson.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
DK Metcalf (Start, WR1/2 border), Tyler Lockett (Start, WR1 if active), David Moore (Sit, Start as Flex if Lockett is inactive), Greg Olsen/Will Dissly (Sit)
The last four weeks for the second year breakout DK Metcalf have been feast or famine. Last time against Arizona he was shadowed by Patrick Peterson and was held to a 2/23 line. He then put up 12/161/2 the next game, 7/108/1 in Week 9, then 2/28 last week in a battle with Jalen Ramsey. He now gets Peterson again, and it could be tough sledding again. This week is a tough one to predict because it is coming down to the wire for Tyler Lockett’s status to be able to suit up. Assuming he does, we could see a ton of targets go his way if Wilson decides to look away from Peterson the whole game as he did in Week 7. Lockett put up a massive 15/200/3 game last time out against Arizona, and I actually like him as the preferred play over Metcalf this week if he ends up getting the nod. If he doesn’t, Wilson really will have no choice but to force-feed Metcalf, but this is what puts Metcalf behind Lockett for me. If Lockett is inactive, David Moore becomes a solid flex play in the scenario that Peterson is shadowing Metcalf.
-Matt Dean (@MattDeanQBList on Twitter, mdean8 on Reddit)
Does DJ Moore become a sit if Bridgewater is out? I have other options such as Hunt, Chark or Lazard but have been going back and forth on who becomes my flex play this week. (Thomas, Cook and Jefferson are starting). I know little about PJ Walker and what he brings to the table. Love your version of start/sit. It’s far more comprehensive than most.