Kickoff: Sunday, November 22nd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Betting Odds: BAL -6.5, 47 total via Oddsshark
Ryan Tannehill (Sit)
Ryan Tannehill has been just plain bad for fantasy managers the last two weeks throwing for fewer than 160 yards in both contests and totaling just three TDs. The sledding doesn’t get any easier this week as the Titans travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that has been unkind to QBs not named Patrick Mahomes this season. Baltimore has held four QBs below 200 passing yards and has held five QBs to one TD or fewer. The Titans are 31st in the NFL at 181 passing yards per game and with two teams that run the ball a lot, there will likely be fewer possessions than normal for each team. Tannehill should stay on the bench in Week 11 for fantasy managers.
Derrick Henry (Start, low-end RB1), Jeremy McNichols (Sit)
This is the point in the article where I remind our readers that Derrick Henry has alternated between 100+ yards rushing and sub-100 yards rushing so far this season. Last week, Henry surpassed 100 yards which, if the trend holds, would point to a sub-100 yard performance. That isn’t unrealistic given the stout Baltimore defense that allows just 109 yards per game. Henry has also been virtually erased from being involved in Tennessee’s passing game as he’s seen just three targets over the team’s last three games. Am I recommending fantasy managers bench, Henry, because of these factors? Absolutely not, but be prepared for a low-end RB1 finish with the possibility of an RB2 day if Tennessee is forced into catchup mode like they were for most of the fourth quarter last week.
Despite seeing the majority of the late-game snaps last week, Jeremy McNichols still barely made a dent in the stat sheet seeing just four opportunities. McNichols is a seldom-used backup to Henry and his lack of involvement in the passing game makes him irrelevant for fantasy managers.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR3/Flex), Corey Davis (Start, Flex), Adam Humphries/Kalif Raymond/Cameron Batson (Sit), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
A.J. Brown suffered from a case of the drops last week as the star WR managed just one reception for 21 yards. Brown dropped what looked like a long TD down the sideline early in the game and then mishandled another later in the game that would have given Tennessee a first down and kept a drive alive. It was the first game since the team’s BYE without a TD reception and his only game this season without multiple receptions. Baltimore has allowed at least one WR to top double-digit points in every game this season and Brown is the best bet to continue that streak this week. The upside is certainly there for Brown to crack the WR2 rankings in Week 11 but a WR3 finish seems more likely and is what fantasy managers should expect this week.
In Week 9, Corey Davis gave fantasy managers every reason to write him off again after posting zero fantasy points against Chicago. Davis rebounded a bit last week with five catches for 67 yards and has been a nice complement to the explosiveness Brown brings on the other side of the field. Unfortunately for Davis, the #2 WR has not had much success against Baltimore this season as the Ravens have allowed double-digit points to that position just three times this season. Davis has some appeal given the attention Brown draws but it’s hard to expect anything more than a low-end WR3 finish for Davis, making him a Flex option in larger leagues but nothing more this week.
It is uncertain if Adam Humphries will return from his concussion suffered in Week 9 as of this writing, but he’s not a player fantasy managers should be counting on for fantasy production even if he plays. In his stead, the Titans have used both Kalif Raymond and Cameron Batson but neither has made a significant fantasy impact with the opportunities they have received. All three can safely be benched in Week 11.
Jonnu Smith has struggled to return to the fantasy stalwart managers relied on since he suffered an ankle injury in Week 5. Since then, Smith has compiled just eight receptions for 97 yards and one TD. Production from the TE position has been a mixed bag against the Ravens but has been mostly down in recent weeks. Given Smith’s recent struggles and the tough matchup with Baltimore’s defense, Smith is not a reliable option for fantasy managers in Week 11.
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
Lamar Jackson hasn’t lived up to the lofty fantasy standards he set last season when he rushed for a QB-record 1,206 yards and threw for 36 TDs but he still possesses the ability to change a game with his dynamic athletic ability. Jackson has seen double-digit carries each of the last three games and only has two games with less than 50 rushing yards this season. Tennessee has struggled against the pass this season, allowing 277 passing yards per game, and is middling in their run defense allowing 120 yards per game. Jackson should provide fantasy managers with a mid-QB1 floor with top-five upside at the position in Week 11.
Gus Edwards (Sit), Mark Ingram (Sit), J.K. Dobbins (Sit)
It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which a team is favored to win by nearly a TD and fantasy managers don’t have a viable RB from that team as a solid option, but that’s precisely the case with Baltimore and their three-headed rushing attack (four-headed if you want to include Jackson). Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, and J.K. Dobbins all cannibalize each other to the point no one can safely be relied on to provide meaningful fantasy output any week. Last week, Dobbins saw the most snaps (29), Edwards led the trio in touches (8), and Ingram had the most receptions (2). One of these three RBs might have a great game, but the chances are better than all of them will have enough production to frustrate fantasy managers. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect anything more than RB3 production from any of these options and should look for better options in Week 11.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Sit, Deep Flex), Willie Snead (Sit), Miles Boykin/Devin Duvernay (Sit), Mark Andrews (Start, TE1)
Even though Marquise Brown leads the team in targets on the season with 55, his average of 6.1 per game is 38th among WRs. That places Brown behind several team’s #2 WR in terms of targets and we all know targets lead to fantasy production. While Brown has the speed and athleticism to score any time he touches the ball, he gets too few touches to remain a starting option in most leagues. Brown might provide some flex appeal in large leagues but is too sparsely used to be recommended as anything other than a low-end WR3 for fantasy managers in Week 11.
So, it logically follows that is Brown leads the team in targets and barely registers on the fantasy radar than the WRs who receive even fewer targets are even less desirable. Willie Snead has had three decent games in a row capped off by his two-TD performance last week but still has that run of games prior where he combined for seven receptions for 85 yards and no TDs. The disparity between Snead’s floor and his ceiling is so wide that I can’t recommend fantasy managers take that risk as we close in on the fantasy playoffs. Snead might be a viable option in crazy-large leagues but is bench fodder for most fantasy managers this week.
Opportunities are the biggest downfall for both Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay and why they should be on benches this week. The duo has combined for just 41 targets on the season and has just one TD between them. Both players are dynamic but are underutilized for fantasy purposes. Both are recommended sits this week.
The other apparent option for Jackson in the passing game is Mark Andrews who is just behind Brown in targets with 53 on the season. The biggest difference between Andrews and Brown, aside from the position they play, is Andrews’ involvement in the red zone. Andrews has more than double the next option in red-zone targets with 12 and has converted those targets into nine receptions, three for TDs. Andrews has five TDs on the season, also leading the team. Andrews is reliable and is often Jackson’s first read on passing plays making him an easy TE1 this week for fantasy managers.
Snap counts courtesy of Fantasy Data.
-Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter)
Does DJ Moore become a sit if Bridgewater is out? I have other options such as Hunt, Chark or Lazard but have been going back and forth on who becomes my flex play this week. (Thomas, Cook and Jefferson are starting). I know little about PJ Walker and what he brings to the table. Love your version of start/sit. It’s far more comprehensive than most.