Kickoff: Sunday, December 6th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: JAX +9.5, 52 total via Oddsshark
Mike Glennon (Sit, QB2)
So Mike Glennon wasn’t a disaster last week, after all. The journeyman QB had himself a serviceable day for fantasy purposes, scoring 18 points while throwing for two touchdowns and no interceptions against a Cleveland defense that isn’t terrible. Minnesota’s defense certainly isn’t the reincarnation of the Purple People Eaters this season, so maybe this could work? They aren’t great at getting to the quarterback, so Glennon should have some time in the pocket to air it out much like he did last week when he wasn’t sacked once. It should also be a high scoring game, with the line set at 52, and Minnesota has the offensive weapons to score a lot of points against the porous Jaguars defense. I’m not saying you should go out and start Glennon, but you could do worse.
James Robinson (Start, RB1)
I am saying, however, that you should go out and start James Robinson. Duh. Obviously. Robinson has been as steady as they come in 2020, scoring double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season. The Vikings are middle of the pack against the run this year, and they’ve allowed 96 or more yards on the ground in every game but one. Seeing as Robinson is the only Jacksonville RB that gets carries on a week-to-week basis, he’s primed for another 100-yard game and I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds the end zone once or twice as well. Start him with confidence.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
D.J. Chark (Start, Flex), Keelan Cole (Sit, Flex), Laviska Shenault (Sit), Chris Conley (Sit), Collin Johnson (Sit, Flex), Tyler Eifert (Sit)
As we all expected, Collin Johnson led the Jaguars in targets, receptions, and fantasy points in Week 12. Granted, D.J. Chark and Chris Conley were both late-week scratches, but there is something to be said for a second-team QB (Glennon) who shows some chemistry with a 2nd team WR (Johnson). They’ve clearly been working together in practice, and when things fall apart on offense that connection can pay dividends for keeping drives alive. I’m not saying to start Johnson everywhere – unless you’re really desperate – but at $3300 on Draftkings, I think he might be a sneaky play who can score 10ish points this week.
As for the rest of the options, if Chark is in there he’s a WR2 for sure, but keep an eye on his status because it’s not like Jacksonville is incentivized to rush him back. Keelan Cole and Chris Conley could go off for 70+ yards and a touchdown at any time in this offense, but it’s terribly hard to predict when that will happen. Cole leads the team in targets in the last three weeks, so if I had to choose one to flex it would be him. I’m also someone who’s still on the Laviska Shenault train, however, I’m starting to accept the fact that we likely won’t see his true breakout until next season. He had four targets in his first game back last week, and they did get him a carry on the ground as well, but he’s too risky to start in my opinion.
Tyler Eifert is seeing 4-5 targets per game the last few weeks, but he’s not doing enough with them to be anything more than a home run play. You really need a touchdown out of him to pay off, and that’s never a guarantee. Sit him.
Kirk Cousins (Start, QB2)
Jacksonville has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and with his weapons one would think that Kirk Cousins is an automatic start, right? Well, not exactly. He’s been very touchdown-dependent this year and has three touchdowns in all but one of his 20+ point fantasy performances. Luckily for Cousins, they do throw the ball to Adam Thielen often in the red zone, so there is some hope. I wouldn’t start Cousins over a proven guy like Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers, who both have poor matchups this week, but the boom potential is there and it’s worth chasing as a fringe QB1 in Week 13.
Dalvin Cook (Start, RB1), Alexander Mattison (Sit)
Yes, Dalvin Cook injured his ankle last week and missed a brief amount of time because of it. However, he did return to the game and should be all systems go this week. Jacksonville has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to RBs this season, and I’m not going to waste any more of your time. You know what to do with this one.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Adam Thielen (Start, WR2), Justin Jefferson (Start, WR2), Bisi Johnson (Sit), Kyle Rudolph (Sit, TE2)
Adam Thielen missed Week 12 after being placed on the COVID restricted list, but he has been activated and did practice on Wednesday. This matchup is ripe for exploitation, but it’s never a given that the Vikings will choose to air it out on any given week. It seems that the weeks they do are the ones where they’re fighting for a win, and as nine-point favorites against the Jaguars it’s unlikely that they’ll need to come from behind like they did last week. Either way, you should be firing up both Thielen and Justin Jefferson, as it’s not the time of year to nitpick and they give you a very good chance of a boom week against this defense. Just brace yourself for a disappointment from one of them if Cook goes off and scores three touchdowns.
I’m not buying the Kyle Rudolph resurgence. Yes, he had eight targets last week, but four of them came on their last two drives when they were already down two scores. That’s probably not going to be a situation they’re in this week, and we all know they would much rather pound the rock 30 times and milk the clock with a lead than dink and dunk to the tight end all game. The matchup is good, but I wouldn’t rely on him unless you were totally desperate for a spark at the position.
-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 on Twitter, iamatechnician on Reddit)