Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 6th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Betting Odds: NO -3, 47.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Taysom Hill (Start, QB1)
Taysom Hill’s first two weeks under center haven’t been pretty if you are a fan of the forward pass, but they have been productive for fantasy managers. Hill’s late-season performance is reminiscent of Tim Tebow in late 2010. That season Tebow led many a fantasy owner to fantasy championships, with a mix of rushing and passing that wasn’t always pretty. Hill has scored two rushing touchdowns in each of the last two games, and while his passing yardage total was down last week. the gameplan called for it. Hill is a high floor weapon at quarterback, and his best game hasn’t happened yet. Fire him up without hesitation this week and hope he becomes more comfortable as a passer.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Start, Flex)
Since Hill was placed into the starter role at quarterback, Alvin Kamara’s receiving floor has all but disappeared. Two of Kamara’s five lowest target totals for a game have happened in the past two games. Two games, two targets each. With just four targets with Hill as the starter, managers should be worried about Alvin’s league-winning upside. Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend. Pay attention to Kamara’s role this weekend. Kamara is still a top-12 option as a rusher and a weapon in the rez-zone. However, until Brees returns, he may not be the top 3 weekly star.
Conversely, Latavius Murray’s value has increased since the change at QB. Even before the Brees injury, Murray did see 10+ opportunities in every game this season, but his skill set may be more suited for the power run game Sean Payton wants to employ with Hill at QB. Murray is an excellent flex option this week, with upside.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Thomas (Start, WR1), Emmanuel Sanders (Sit), Jared Cook (Sit)
Michael Thomas saw six targets for 50 yards last week, a week after his first 100-yard. However, he still hasn’t managed a touchdown reception. For most managers, sitting Thomas isn’t a luxury we have but it also shouldn’t really be considered. The Falcons have played better on defense in recent weeks, no longer a historically bad pass defense, but still not to a level of scaring opponents. Thomas has been a disappointment but he looks to be Hill’s primary read on most passing plays and his talent will rise above in the coming weeks. Start Thomas and expect a solid game, and hope he can find the end zone this week.
With the emergence of Taysom Hill what has disappeared is any hopes for secondary passing options. This means that Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook, each of who has seen limited opportunities in two weeks, are not fantasy options this week.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Matt Ryan (Start, QB2)
A week after his worst performance of the season, Matt Ryan has a lukewarm performance despite the Falcons’ blowout victory over Las Vegas. Ryan threw for less than 200 yards and managed a mid-QB2 performance. Perhaps that is what we should have expected though without Julio Jones in the lineup. Ryan’s fantasy splits with and without Jones are vastly different without his superstar receiver. In eight games with Jones, Ryan is averaging 23 fantasy points and 373 yards passing. In three games without, he averages just 13 points and 207 passing yards. This week he faces New Orleans, a team that shut him down just two weeks ago. Ryan is a risky play this week, as we do not know the status of Jones and because of his history with the Saints. If you can find a replacement, look elsewhere. If you must start Ryan, only do so in 2QB and Superflex leagues.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley II (Start, Flex)
Todd Gurley II was a late scratch last week, announced out late Friday after missing the entire week of practice. In his place, veterans Brian Hill and Ito Smith split time and carries with neither emerging as a clear leader the in backfield. This week Gurley has been limited in practice, which is a good sign for his return. However, his opponent, the Saints, are allowing a league-low 11 points to the running back position. With running back being what it is, many fantasy manager’s best options will be to start Gurley. Just don’t expect a big game. Start him as a low-end flex and hope he finds the end-zone.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Julio Jones (Start, WR2), Calvin Ridley (Start, Low-end WR2), Hayden Hurst (Sit)
Julio Jones should play this week, and if history has taught us anything it is that an “available” Jones as good as a “healthy” normal NFL receiver. However, the Saints defensive secondary is perhaps the best in the league, with its rotating safeties and physical style. Jones has faced the Saints just twice since 2019, but he only has caught total in those two games, for just 118 yards. The Saints will focus on doubling and removing Jones from the gameplan. While Jones should never be on your bench, temper expectations for the star wideout.
Calvin Ridley found the end-zone for the first time since Week 7 and continues to collect targets, 86 total on the season. Ridley also is not a player that you should consider benching. His high volume of targets makes him a solid weekly starter, but it will be difficult for Ridley to find the end-zone. Managers should hope for a high target share and plenty of garbage time.
Olamide Zaccheaus was placed on IR with a toe injury and Russell Gage has been unproductive in opportunities this year. No other Falcons receivers should be considered a start.
Hayden Hurst has enjoyed a solid season, perhaps not the breakout managers were expecting, but TE11 nonetheless. His lone game without fantasy points came in Week 11 against this same New Orleans defense. Expect more of the same this week. The Saints have been on a roll against tight ends and haven’t allowed a touchdown to TEs since Week 5. They have allowed less than 40 receiving yards to seven of the last eight opponents. The matchup is too tough to risk no points from Hurst this week.
-Marc Salazar (@dingwog on Twitter)