Kickoff: Sunday, December 12th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Betting Odds: CHI +12.5, 43.5 total via Oddsshark
Justin Fields (Sit, Low-end QB2)
The Bears announced that rookie Justin Fields will return from his rib injury and start for Chicago this week. Bears fans will be excited to see the young quarterback back in action, but fantasy managers need to temper expectations. Fields only put up more than 20 fantasy points once this year and head coach Matt Nagy’s play-calling has been disappointing.
Plus, the Packers’ defense has done well against quarterbacks. Green bay is conceding the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position and is top-10 in passing yards allowed this year. I would keep Fields on the bench, especially if you’re still gunning for a playoff spot.
David Montgomery (Start, High-end RB2)
It seems like good things happen when the Bears make sure they get the ball to David Montgomery. The young running back put up his best fantasy total of the season last week after Chicago gave him a season-high 29 touches. His utilization in the passing game was particularly encouraging. David saw nine targets last week, five more than his prior season-high.
The Packers’ defense has done a great job limiting rushing yards this year (eighth-fewest in the league). Still, I believe Montgomery should still be capable of high-end RB2 numbers if Chicago decides to continue feeding him the ball like they did last week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Darnell Mooney (Start, Low-end WR2), Marquise Goodwin (Sit), Allen Robinson II (Sit) Cole Kmet (Sit), Jimmy Graham (Sit)
I believe Marquise Goodwin is still injured, but I doubt I would recommend starting him even if he were healthy. He’s too risky of a play this late in the season. Allen Robinson is still nursing his hamstring injury as well if I’m not mistaken. Darnell Mooney will likely be the only viable Chicago receiver for the time being. Mooney had a poor fantasy output last week, but the entire Bears offense struggled to get going in the rainy weather. Mooney was doing well with his increased role, averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game in the three weeks before Week 13. I suspect Mooney will continue seeing an impressive target share and should be capable of achieving WR2 numbers this week.
Cole Kmet’s target share was encouraging for a few weeks there, but I’m finding it harder and harder to trust him lately. There’s a good chance Kmet could achieve consistent fantasy relevance if there weren’t half a dozen tight ends in Chicago. Unfortunately, guys like Jimmy Graham are eating into Kmet’s potential fantasy production. Graham has found the end zone two weeks in a row now. The fantasy tight end position can get desperate, and fantasy managers in deeper leagues may not have a better option, but I believe both of these guys should be avoided in 10-team and 12-team leagues.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
It appears Aaron Rodgers’ toe didn’t require any sort of medical intervention over the BYE week. The veteran quarterback should be good to go against Chicago this week. The toe didn’t seem to slow down Rodgers much in the first place. Aaron averaged 29.9 fantasy points over his last two games and threw six touchdowns over that same span.
Chicago’s defense has done well limiting passing yards this year, but they are still allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. I believe AR12 should be in line for another QB1 performance this week. Just keep in mind that the Packers could start leaning more on the run if they take an early lead.
Aaron Jones (Start, High-end RB2), A.J. Dillon (Start, Low-end RB2)
It seems like the Packers wanted to ease Aaron Jones back into the lineup in Week 12 because they only gave him 10 rushing attempts. Aaron had an extra week to rest his MCL sprain over the BYE, but the Packers may ease him back in a bit. I believe Jones will get most of the backfield work in this game, but I doubt Green Bay wants to run him into the ground after that scary MCL sprain. Chicago is allowing the tenth-most rushing yards this year, and Jones had his third-best fantasy outing of the season against the Bears in Week 6. Jones should be capable of high-end RB2 numbers with plenty of upside this week.
Although Jones should mostly be back to full strength, A.J. Dillon should still have enough opportunities to achieve respectable RB2 numbers. Dillon has done quite well lately, averaging 18.8 PPR points per game over his past four. It’s that time of year when the weather becomes a crucial factor in Green Bay, and Dillon’s large stature and physical running style means he’s perfect for wearing down defenses in the frigid weather. I believe A.J. will get enough work to stay fantasy-relevant for the remainder of the regular season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Allen Lazard (Sit), Randall Cobb (Sit)
What can be said about Davante Adams that hasn’t already been mentioned a thousand times before? The guy is one of the most elite receivers in the game and has been incredibly consistent for years now. The Chicago secondary has done fairly well this year (allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards) but that won’t be enough to downgrade Adams this week. Start the overall WR5 on the season with confidence.
I wouldn’t trust him in standard-sized leagues, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling could be worth keeping an eye on in deeper leagues. The young speedster is averaging 9.5 targets over his last two games, and he’s always one long ball away from an impressive fantasy performance. He’s only a WR4/Flex option in most leagues, but there aren’t many last-minute fill-ins capable of catching 75-yard bombs.
Neither Allen Lazard nor Randall Cobb has been consistent enough to trust every week. Cobb was having a fantastic game in Week 12 but eventually succumbed to a groin injury. Either way, these guys aren’t dependable enough to trust in your fantasy lineup.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse)