Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 12th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Betting Odds: TEN -9, 44 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Sit)
As one of the most hyped prospects coming out of the college ranks, Trevor Lawrence has looked like many rookies before him as he’s endured an up-and-down season. Lawrence has improved his decision-making and accuracy from his first three games in which he threw seven INTs as he’s tossed just three in his last nine games. Unfortunately, he’s not been able to put together any multi-TD passing games since the opener against Houston in which he had three passing TDs. Lawrence also displayed ability as a runner in college and he has shown similar upside this season with seven games of more than 20 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Lawrence may become a standout fantasy QB as he matures and learns to process the game faster, but he’s just not there yet. Fantasy managers should pass on the talented rookie this week.
Running Backs
James Robinson (Start, RB2), Carlos Hyde (Sit)
Last week was incredibly disappointing for fantasy managers who trusted James Robinson as a starting option when an early fumble seemingly placed him squarely in Urban Meyer’s doghouse and he finished with just eight carries on the day. Meyer seemed to indicate Monday that he wanted Robinson to play more and would be more involved in the rotation at RB. Robinson has reportedly been dealing with knee and ankle injuries but he did get carries late in the game last week, so those don’t seem to be reasons to limit his touches. Robinson has his best game of the season by far the first time these two teams met, rushing for 149 yards and one TD – his only 100-yard game of the season. That game seems to have been an outlier compared to the rest of the season and the concerns of a continued timeshare reduce his upside, but I think fantasy managers can trust Robinson as a solid RB2 in Week 14.
The beneficiary of Robinson’s reduced usage last week was Carlos Hyde, but his usage still wasn’t impressive enough to warrant much attention (nine carries, 24 yards) though he did have a short TD. If Meyer was speaking the truth, we should see Robinson return to the primary RB role, relegating Hyde to minimal use of around a handful of touches. Unless news breaks that Robinson is more injured than his production on the field indicates, Hyde is no more than a handcuff for fantasy managers with Robinson on their rosters. Pass on Hyde this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marvin Jones (Start, low-end WR3), Laviska Shenault (Start, low-end WR3), Laquon Treadwell (Sit), James O’Shaughnessy (Sit)
There’s just not a lot to like about the fantasy production from Jaguar WRs. Marvin Jones leads the team in all receiving categories with 82 targets, 48 receptions, 540 yards, and three TDs. For reference, although each of those categories leads the team they rank #31 in the NFL in targets, #44 in receptions, #50 in yards, and #56 in TDs. Jacksonville is nearly a double-digit underdog in this game, likely leading to an increase in passing to try and stay close or catch up late. As the #1 option for Lawrence, Jones should see enough volume to sneak into the low-WR3 tier but this is not a ringing endorsement if you have similar options.
Speaking of similar options, Laviska Shenault is nearly on par with Jones as he has 76 targets, also has 48 receptions, and has 471 yards. Shenault has failed to find the end zone yet this season but he does have some rushing upside as the Jaguars like to utilize his athletic ability on designed runs part of the time. Much like Jones, Shenault is not an enticing option simply because of the inefficiencies of the offense, though he should see a similar volume to Jones as they are the preferred options in the passing game. Shenault has a bit lower ceiling but could outproduce Jones if he breaks off a big play. Consider Shenault as a WR3 with some upside this week, but there are better options out there so don’t feel pressed to start him.
Laquon Treadwell has emerged as Jacksonville’s third WR in recent weeks and has led the team in receiving in the last two games. Treadwell, a former first-round pick, has the size and athleticism to become a viable deep threat and big-play specialist but the offense holds him back. Even leading the team in receiving only nets him 9 or 10 PPR points, so barely in the WR3 range. I don’t think you can take the chance he posts a 1-21-0 game, especially if you’re looking at needing a win to make the playoffs, so he’s a “sit” for me this week.
Dan Arnold was a big free agency signing for Jacksonville, but a knee injury has put him on IR and James O’Shaughnessy has become the preferred receiving TE for Lawrence. O’Shaughnessy has 11 targets over the past two games and he is a reliable option for Lawrence on shorter routes. For fantasy managers, O’Shaughnessy is not a gifted athlete, so he’s not likely to break off a big play on a short crossing route. There are plenty of better options at TE this week and O’Shaughnessy can safely be kept on the bench for Week 14.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (Start, low-end QB1)
I waffled back and forth on how to classify Ryan Tannehill this week as he’s right on the line of sit and start as my QB13 this week. Tannehill has been efficient for the Titans again this season but has struggled without his top wideouts the last two games. Tannehill had one of the worst games of his career in the loss to New England two weeks ago, completing 11 of his 21 attempts for a paltry 93 yards with one TD and one INT. Before that, Tannehill tossed four INTs in an improbable loss to the Texans and the Titans suddenly find themselves holding on to a slim 1.5 game lead over the surging Colts. Tennesse is a big favorite this week, likely limiting Tannehill’s passing numbers but I think he can sneak into the bottom of the QB1 tier against an overmatched Jacksonville defense.
Running Backs
D’Onta Foreman (Sit), Dontrell Hilliard (Start, low-end RB2/Flex)
The Titans have been searching for an answer at RB since the injury that sidelined Derrick Henry and they seemed to have settled on a combination attack with Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman. Both players eclipsed 100 rushing yards in Week 12 against New England and split snaps almost right down the middle (Hilliard – 32, Foreman – 31). Hilliard has done more with less (19 carries, 166 yards, 1 TD; 9-49 receiving) but is not built for an every-down role. Foreman has established himself as the short-yardage and goal-line option along with some between the 20’s work but hasn’t shown the same explosive ability Hilliard has flashed. Foreman is also barely involved in the passing game, keeping him a notch below Hilliard in that regard. For this week, I like Hilliard to be the more productive back simply because of his work in the passing game. I like Hilliard to slot in as a low-end RB2 or Flex option while Foreman is a recommended sit.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit), Julio Jones (Start, WR3/Flex), Cody Hollister/Chester Rogers (Sit), MyCole Pruitt/Geoff Swaim/Anthony Firkser (Sit)
For the first time in three weeks, Tannehill will have one of his top WRs back on the field as Julio Jones has returned from his stint on IR and looks to be in line to start this weekend. Jones has been in and out of Tennessee’s lineup all season with various ailments but should be the clear #1 option this week assuming he doesn’t suffer any setbacks during practice this week. The spread would indicate a lower-volume passing game this week and that, combined with the uncertainty of how Jones will respond after a month-long hiatus, keeps a fairly low ceiling on Jones’s production this week but I think he still returns WR3 or Flex-worthy numbers this week assuming he starts.
The bigger question surrounding Tennessee’s WR corps is who will start alongside Jones in Week 14? In Week 12, Cody Hollister saw his first game option and he, along with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, seems like the de facto starters with Jones. Hollister didn’t provide much in the way of production in his first game, but that is true of Tennessee’s entire passing attack. Hollister did see four targets, catching two for 22 yards, and could benefit from additional attention on Jones as a larger threat. Westbrook-Ikhine has been a nice surprise for the Titans as he has three receiving TDs on the season and has been a consistently reliable option all season long. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Tennessee’s offense struggles to support two fantasy-caliber options in the passing game and that may be exaggerated even more this week if they build an early lead. I’d steer clear of both Hollister and Westbrook-Ikhine this week as their ceiling is simply too low to count on.
At the TE position, it’s been a crapshoot all season to figure out which player, if any, will have the best game on any given week. MyCole Pruitt and Geoff Swaim have been the TD scorers as they have five between them but Anthony Firkser leads the TEs in targets and yards. To further complicate things, all three players regularly see snaps, though Swaim is the runaway leader in that category so far this season. If this were one player that had the stats the three have combined, he might be a weekly starting option but dividing this production by three makes all three untrustworthy for fantasy managers. If I HAD to pick one to start, I’d lean Swaim because of the TD upside and the fact he is on the field more, but if given the option of passing on all three, that’s what I’m doing.