Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, December 8th, 8:15 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood California
Betting Odds: LAR +6, 44 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: Amazon Prime
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, QB2)
Is Derek Carr a good QB? The Raiders’ record would indicate no but his fantasy points say yes. He only has three games with fewer than two touchdowns on the season and has been over that mark the past five games. He has to face the Rams’ secondary this week who are middle of the road at giving up 15.76 points to quarterbacks (18th). Carr will be helped by there being no Aaron Donald across the field from him. Carr has been throwing the ball a fair amount with over 30 passing attempts in each of the past five games, even though he hasn’t been very efficient with those passes as he has only twice been over 65% completion percentage this year. He can be started as a high-end QB2. It’s a range he has been in six times this season.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB1)
Josh Jacobs is dominating the NFL right now. Over the past three weeks, he has 582 yards and three touchdowns on the ground and has added eleven receptions for 131 yards. On top of that, he has seen over 20 carries in the past four games. His fellow Raider running backs have only seen 10 total carries combined between Zamir White, Brandon Bolden, and Ameer Abdullah. Jacobs now faces the Rams who are giving up the seventh fewest points to running backs. It’s a tough matchup, but the talent and volume of Jacobs should overcome it. The Rams aren’t putting up a ton of points on offense so the Raiders can get a lead and run the ball late into the game. You can start him as an RB1 for the rest of the season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Mack Hollins (Start, WR3), Foster Moreau (Start, TE2)
The Raiders have really narrowed their passing game down. They only had five players with a target in their Week 13 game against the Chargers. Leading that department was of course Davante Adams with 12 targets. He hauled in eight of them for 177 yards and two touchdowns. He also tied the team lead in routes run with 30. He will have to contend with coverage from Jalen Ramsey who at times hasn’t looked great this season but is still rated at 77.5 in coverage by PFF.com. You aren’t going to let any matchup scare you out of starting Adams as a WR1.
Tied for the lead in routes run with Adams is Mack Hollins. He saw eight targets catching five of them for only 35 yards. It was a rough day for a 29-year-old receiver who is having a career year in Sin City. He should be able to get things going against the Rams who are giving up the seventh most points to wide receivers and Hollins will see coverage mostly from Derion Kendrick who rates at 44.7 on PFF.com. It’s a great matchup for him as they are coming in on a short week. You can start him as a WR3.
After Adams and Hollins, there isn’t another receiver to really mention. Keelan Cole played on only 57% of the team’s snaps but ran zero routes. Even in the past three weeks when he was playing on over 65% of the team’s snaps, he only saw two targets a game. You can’t start him or even roster him.
Foster Moreau was shut down by the Chargers’ safeties and had a down week. That shouldn’t be the case this week. The Rams are giving up the 14th most points to the tight end position at 11.7. Nick Scott and Taylor Rapp are not Derwin James, and those defenders rate at just 52.6 and 59.6 in coverage. The Rams just let the Seahawks combo of Will Dissly and Noah Fant post a combined six receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown this past week. I’m willing to start Moreau this week as a TE2 with upside.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterbacks
John Wolford (Sit)
It’s a short week for the Rams so they probably stick with John Wolford instead of switching to Bryce Perkins. Either way, you aren’t starting either. Yes, the Raiders are giving up the second most points to quarterbacks at 20.72 but Wolford has shown he isn’t the answer. He only attempted 26 passes, completing 4 of them for 178 yards, no scores, and two interceptions. He ran the ball five times for 29 yards, so he’s not a mobile QB either. He just doesn’t have the skill or the playmakers around him to be a fantasy-relevant QB, even with six teams on BYE. Even if they switch to Perkins, who has some upside as he threw for a touchdown in his start, you can’t trust a low-volume, low-skill play.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (Sit), Cam Akers (Start, RB2)
I have no clue what to do with the Rams running backs. I was completely wrong last week thinking that Kyren Williams would continue to see his share of snaps and carries rise and would take over as the lead back. That ended up not being anywhere close to being true. Cam Akers jumped from playing sub 40% to over 70% of the team’s snaps. Meanwhile, Williams fell from 70% in Week 12 to only 28% in Week 13. Akers racked up 17 carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns while the rookie Williams only saw three for nine yards. That’s the same number of carries that wide receiver Brandon Powell got and one less than receiver Tutu Atwell. With it being a short week, I don’t think the Rams have a chance to implement a new scheme that will get Williams more carries so I’m sitting him this week. Akers should be started as am RB2. The Raiders are giving up the fifth most points to running backs at 26.91. The passing game is less than ideal right now for the Rams so they will lean on the rushing game.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Ben Skowronek (Sit), Van Jefferson (Start, FLEX), Tyler Higbee (Start, TE2)
Sometimes, the process is right but the results just don’t work out in your favor. Case in point, the Rams receivers in Week 13. We thought Van Jefferson would be the leading receiver. He only saw four targets and caught two of them for 39 yards. The process was right as he played on 100% of the team’s snaps and led the team in routes run with 36. The process is the same this week against the Raiders. Jefferson should be out there for close to every snap and will lead the team in routes. He gets the Raiders who are surrendering the twelfth most points to wide receivers at 34.52. Jefferson will probably see coverage from Rock Ya-Sin who rates at 65.8 in coverage by PFF.com. Jefferson should be started as a FLEX play and you hope he can catch more than half of his targets and his volume goes up.
Ben Skowronek was second on the team in routes run but only saw three targets, catching two of them for 30 yards. He will be covered by Nate Hobbs who rates at 65.5. He has played most of the team’s snaps this season but hasn’t been above the Sit range since Week 6. Because of that, you can’t start him. You really can’t start any of the other wide receivers either. Brandon Powell, Tutu Atwell, and Austin Tramell are touchdown-only desperation plays. If I had to pick one, it would be Powell. He played on only 41% of the team’s snaps, and was tied for second on the team with four targets but only ran 12 routes. He did receive the only Rams red zone target in Week 13. You just can’t count on the volume.
Tight end Tyler Higbee was tied for the team lead with five targets. He played on 84% of the team’s snaps, which is the second most he has seen since the Week 7 bye week. He ran 20 routes which was third on the team. He will face the Raiders who are giving up the sixth most points to the tight end position at 14.14. He will see coverage from the safety and linebackers of the Raiders. Outside of linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Duron Harmon, none of them rate over 60 in coverage. Higbee is the last remaining member of the once-powerful Rams’ receiving group. He can be started as a TE2 in a good matchup.