Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 11th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds: BUF -9.5, 43.5 Total on Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Tyler Gentile (@808Paperboi on Twitter)
New York Jets
Quarterback
Mike White (Sit)
Zach Wilson, who? The Jets’ 2018 5th-round draft pick has been a formidable fantasy option in his two starts this year, but it’s time to cool the jets on Mike White. Look at who he has faced–the Bears, who are 18th in points allowed to QBs, and the Vikings, who are 24th. He had 57 (!) pass attempts and not one of them went for a TD last week against Minnesota. He’s undeniably better than Wilson, but any QB can get it done against Chicago or Minnesota. White gets a much stiffer test going on the road to Buffalo this week. The Bills are allowing the 8th fewest points (14.83 per game) to QBs and only 3/13 have recorded 20+ points against them. The only thing working in White’s favor here is the game script. As +9.5 underdogs, the Jets will likely be trailing and having to throw a ton similar to last week. He’s startable in a 2-QB league, but don’t expect much out of him.
Running Backs
Zonovan Knight (Start, Flex), Michael Carter (Start, Flex), Ty Johnson (Sit), James Robinson (Sit)
We’re looking at another dreaded RBBC with a team that doesn’t really score very often. Michael Carter has practiced in full capacity this week and is poised to return following a one-game absence. He will form a tandem with rookie Zonovan Knight, who isn’t going anywhere according to Jets head coach Robert Saleh. The Bills are stingy against opposing running backs and have allowed the 12th fewest points to the position, so hopefully, you have better options, but if you don’t these two are flex worthy this week.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR1), Corey Davis (Start, WR3), Elijah Moore (Sit, Low-End Flex), Tyler Conklin (Sit, TE2)
Garrett Wilson looks like he might be a league winner for some this year. The chemistry he and White have appears to be real. Or maybe it just took a competent QB to get him to produce. In the 5 games without Zach Wilson throwing him the ball, the Jets rookie has averaged 11.2 targets, 6.2 grabs, and 94.2 yards per game. He has 4 TDs over this sample as well. He had 15 targets last week! That’s Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Justin Jefferson territory. If they continue to force-feed him the ball, he will continue to produce. If you’re into gambling, I took him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +300 with no one running away with the award as of now.
Hey, would you look at that?! Another Jets receiver producing without Zach Wilson at the helm! What a coincidence! Corey Davis put up a 5/85 line with 10 targets last week and has also faired relatively well in the games without Wilson. The Bills have been one of the more generous units to WRs this year and rank 20th against the position this year. Davis is worthy of a start as long as his ankle holds up this week in practice.
Elijah Moore didn’t see the production that Davis and Wilson has last week, but he did receive 6 targets while playing on 68% of snaps. He’s a low-end flex at best until we see more from him.
It’s probably best to avoid starting Tyler Conklin in 12-man leagues this week if you can find a better option. The Bills have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends and he is coming off a 2 catch 9-yard performance (albeit 7 targets) last week.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Since spraining his UCL, Josh Allen has proceeded to put up ~20, 13, 30, and 17 points over his last four games. The Jets are one of the better defensive sides and have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to QBs, but Allen is a unicorn. It doesn’t matter who he faces. He put up 25 points against the Jets in their first meeting with the majority of those points coming from his legs. He rushed nine times for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Start with confidence, per usual.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, Flex), James Cook (Start, Flex), Nyheim Hines (Sit)
Well, well, well. What do we have here? It appears we’ve got a little late-season backfield shakeup. Judging solely from last week’s game, we’ve got another RBBC with Devin Singletary ceding snaps to rookie James Cook who played on 43% of snaps compared to Singletary’s 44% share. The rookie surprisingly out-touched Singletary 20-13 in that game against the Patriots. Of those 20 touches, 14 came on the ground for 64 yards, and the other six were through the air–six grabs for 41 yards. Singletary’s usage all came on the ground on 13 carries for 51 yards. In terms of red zone usage, Cook had 4 touches compared to Singletary’s lone look. It’ll be interesting to see if this is a changing of the guard or if this is a full-blown committee going forward. The Jets have allowed the 9th fewest points to running backs this year, so tread lightly here.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit, Low-End Flex), Dawson Knox (Start, TE2)
Stefon Diggs gets a tasty test against Sauce Gardner but didn’t have too much trouble with him or the rest of the Jets secondary in the first matchup. Diggs went 5/93 on 10 targets back in week nine against them. He’s a set it and forget it every week, no matter how difficult the matchup. The Jets have permitted the 4th fewest points to WRs this year.
Gabe Davis is so frustrating to own. Second in targets on a high-octane, pass-heavy offense, and he has just a 52.5% catch rate, which is the lowest mark among all wide-outs. A lot of that has to do with him having an ADOT of 16 yards, but he still has had plenty of drops. He’s a touchdown-dependent WR3. Good luck guessing when he has a spike week.
Similar to Davis, good luck picking the week Isaiah McKenzie goes off. He’s definitely capable of having spike weeks in this offense, but against the Jets, he’s probably better off on the bench unless he’s needed in a deeper league. The same can be said about Dawson Knox, who is coming off a big ol’ donut against the Patriots. What a disappointing year for him with only two TDs to his name this year. The Jets have allowed the 9th fewest points to TEs.