Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 11th at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Betting Odds: SF -3.5, 37 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Sit)
It took another fourth-quarter comeback from Tom Brady to get the Buccaneers to 6-6 and hold on to their lead in the NFC South last Monday night and except for the last two drives, this team just looked bad. Brady finished the game with 281 yards and two TDs, but 117 of those yards (and both TDs) were on the last two drives when the team was down by 13 points. Now, stats are stats, but it has been a struggle for Brady and the Bucs at times this season. The job gets no easier this week against the 49ers who have stifled opposing QBs to 228 yards per game and have surrendered just 11 passing TDs this season. While Brady may be the greatest QB of all time, I don’t think he will help you in your playoff push this week. Bench Brady in Week 14.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (Sit), Rachaad White (Start, RB2)
While Leonard Fournette commanded the majority of the touches early in the season, there is a clear role for rookie Rachaad White. Fournette receives about 60% of the snaps and is the team’s preferred option in short-yardage and near the goal line. Fournette has seen a bit of a dip in his rushing production, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but is compensating for fantasy managers by having a better-than-average year receiving. Fournette is averaging 7.1 yards per reception and has already set a career-best in receiving TDs with three. White has not performed any better than Fournette when looking at raw stats (3.8 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per reception), but has looked like the better option. The ability to keep both players fresh throughout the game has benefited both players but a stiff test looms this week against the 49ers and their #1 rush defense. Still, I like both players to reach RB2 status because of both players’ ability to contribute in both the run and pass games. Start either as a low-end RB2 this week.
UPDATE: While Fournette is expected to play this week, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he will likely be limited in some capacity. I can no longer confidently expect Fournette to receive his normal 60% workload and there is a chance he plays minimal snaps in this game in order to get him closer to full health for the stretch run as the team tries to close out the season with a division championship. I’d start White well ahead of Fournette this week and would consider benching Fournette altogether if you have a similar option you are deciding between.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Julio Jones (Sit), Cade Otton (Sit), Cameron Brate (Sit)
As has been the case when both players are healthy, there is no doubt who the top two WRs are for Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are head and shoulders above everyone else in the WR room and they dominate the targets at the position. Godwin leads the team with 99 targets (9.9 per game) and Evans is second with 89 (8.1 per game) with the next closest WR at 41 targets. Godwin is in the midst of one of his worst seasons statistically, averaging just 9.5 yards per reception and 6.5 yards per target, but his volume is so high he can be a consistent fantasy producer despite the dip in production. Evans, on the other hand, has been just as consistent this season as he’s been throughout his career, averaging 13.8 yards per reception and 69.2 yards per game, but his TD numbers have seen a sharp decline with just three on the season (3.3% TD percentage this year, 11% for his career). Again, Evans is seeing enough volume to remain fantasy-relevant and I think the trend continues for both players this week. Look for each to sneak into the WR2 for fantasy managers in Week 14.
It’s been a bit of a revolving door at WR3 for the Bucs this season, but when healthy the team has preferred Julio Jones over every other option. When Jones plays his full complement of snaps (typically 60% of the team’s total), he’s averaged five targets per game and gets to around 40 yards per game. Jones also leads the team in yards per reception at 14.5 and has managed two TDs on just 17 receptions. Unfortunately, if Jones doesn’t find the end zone, he doesn’t put up enough other stats to justify using a starting spot on him and TDs are just too hard to predict. Keep Jones on your bench this week.
Unlike previous seasons, we can’t just pencil Brady’s starting TE into our fantasy lineups this year. The Bucs have rolled out both Cade Otton and Cameron Brate at the position this year, but Brate has missed five games this season and missed Monday’s practice this week with an illness. When both players are healthy, the snaps are split nearly evenly making neither an enticing option because of the presence of the other. When Brate has been out of the lineup, Otton has been average, never exceeding 68 yards in a game, though he does have two TDs on the season. If both are playing, fantasy managers can’t trust either as a viable starting option. If Brate misses again this week, Otton has some appeal in larger leagues but would be no more than a TE2 in that case.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (Sit), Josh Johnson (Sit)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Jimmy Garoppolo is out with an injury. While there is a chance he can return late in the playoffs, the job now belongs to Brock Purdy. Affectionately known as “Mr. Irrelevant” after being selected with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy became the first player with that moniker to throw a TD pass in a regular-season game in the victory over Miami last week. Purdy showed the team can still win the division and make the playoffs with him under center, but the offensive philosophy of the team doesn’t give much hope to fantasy managers looking for the same result. San Francisco is 23rd in the NFL in passing play percentage at 54.32% and relies on a sound running game and short passing game to grind down opposing defenses and limit possessions. Purdy is a stash in leagues that allow for two starting QBs but can’t yet be trusted in traditional leagues. Keep Purdy on your bench this week.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1), Jordan Mason (Sit), Kyle Juszczyk (Sit)
It looked like a luxury for the 49ers when they acquired Christian McCaffrey from Carolina, but injuries and trades have left McCaffrey as nearly the only man standing. Fantasy managers know the upside McCaffrey brings to the table, but the innovative play-calling from Kyle Shanahan combined with an offensive attack that features the RB makes McCaffrey even more enticing. Expect McCaffrey to continue to see 80% or more of the snaps at the RB position and there is no reason to think he won’t be able to approach 100 total yards as long as he holds that role and a TD or two is never out of the question. Start McCaffrey confidently as your RB1 this week.
Perhaps lost among all the names the 49ers have had at RB this season is undrafted rookie Jordan Mason out of Georgia Tech. Mason has become the primary backup to McCaffrey because of Mitchell’s injury and has been solid in the last three games with 90 yards on 17 carries. Mason isn’t seeing enough action to warrant starting fantasy consideration, but given his current role and the offensive philosophy of the team, Mason might not be a bad insurance stash for those fantasy managers heading into the playoffs. As for Kyle Juszczyk, we pretty well know what we’re getting from him each week. He will play on about 50% of the snaps, maybe gets a carry, and will see two or three targets. Last week he found the end zone for the first time this season, but his fantasy production is nearly nonexistent. He’s a great player for the 49ers, but not for your fantasy team. Keep Juszczyk out of your lineup in Week 14.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Deebo Samuel (Start, WR2), Brandon Aiyuk (Start, FLEX), Jauan Jennings (Sit), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
Full disclosure, Deebo Samuel is one of my favorite players in the NFL right now. He just is so exciting with the ball in his hands and isn’t afraid to do what it takes to help his team. Samuel was one of the breakout fantasy players last season because of his dual role with the 49ers splitting time at both RB and WR but carrying the WR designation for starting lineup purposes. Samuel has seen a considerable dip in his rushing attempts this season with Mitchell and McCaffrey in the fold, but he’s still producing solid numbers and leads the team in targets with 86. The biggest knock with Samuel is he has to do so much work to get stats because of the way the 49ers utilize him. With a current ADOT of just 4.6 yards, it’s impressive that Samuel can average 11.4 yards per reception. Samuel still sees some touches in the run game and his explosiveness along with his consistent role in the offense should ensure a WR2 finish this week for fantasy managers.
The only other player with more than 80 targets this season for San Francisco is Brandon Aiyuk. Despite being second in targets, Aiyuk leads the team in receptions (56), receiving yards (698), and receiving TDs (6). Aiyuk didn’t see any drop in opportunities when Purdy entered the game either as he was targeted seven times by Purdy. While statistically more effective than Samuel this season, Aiyuk doesn’t get the benefit of added touches in the run game which keeps him behind Samuel in the fantasy rankings. I expect Aiyuk to perform well enough to earn FLEX consideration in Week 14.
The 49ers rarely run offensive sets with three WRs, but when they do it’s typically Jauan Jennings manning that third WR role. Unfortunately for both Jennings and fantasy managers, Jennings doesn’t see more than 40% of the team’s offensive snaps and he’s only seen more than four targets in a game twice this season and one of those came with Samuel out. Jennings did haul in his first TD of the season a couple of weeks ago, but he’s simply not integrated enough into the offense for fantasy managers to trust him in their starting lineups. Keep Jennings on your bench once again this week.
Fantasy managers who have George Kittle on their team have seen the best of times and the worst of times this season. While still an important part of the offense, Kittle has had five games with fewer than 30 receiving yards and didn’t score a TD in any of them. On the flip side, he also has four games with at least 80 yards or a score and did both in three games. The big question for fantasy managers each week is which Kittle will show up. This week, I expect the latter as TEs have had decent success against Tampa Bay to the tune of 50 yards per game, on average, and the Bucs have allowed six TDs to the position this season. Expect Purdy to get Kittle more involved in the offense than he did last week and for Kittle to finish as a TE1 for fantasy managers in Week 14.