Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, December 16th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Betting Odds: KC -3, 52 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX, NFLN
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
It’s not been a typical Patrick Mahomes season with regards to fantasy football, but he reminded us just how good he can be in Week 10 with a 406-yards, five TD performance against the Raiders. Since then, however, Mahomes has had three TDs (two passing, one rushing) and two INTs with just 702 passing yards. Much of the reduced production can be credited to Kansas City’s defense which has looked dominant in recent weeks, keeping opponents off the scoreboard and adding to it with TDs of their own. This game should provide some stiffer competition and looks like a high-scoring, close game which means Mahomes should have the chance to pop again for fantasy managers. You can’t bench him given the enormous upside, so start him as you begin the fantasy playoffs this week.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Start, RB2), Darrel Williams (Start, Flex)
It’s been nice to have Clyde Edwards-Helaire return after a lengthy absence in the middle of the season due to a knee injury, but he hasn’t seen the dominant role he did pre-injury. Over the last three weeks, Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams have split the snaps almost evenly with Williams logging one more snap over that time. Edwards-Helaire has dominated the touches over those games, however, and is, therefore, the preferred option of the duo when it comes to fantasy football. The Chargers have been deplorable against the run this season, allowing 1,829 yards which are ahead of only the Texans (1,923). Edwards-Helaire should have plenty of opportunities to pile up stats this week and should easily finish as an RB2 with RB1 upside against this generous run defense.
Because Williams does see nearly the same number of snaps as Edwards-Helaire, he is in consideration this week as well for fantasy managers. Williams has been the lesser part of the committee over the last three weeks but might have more opportunities to break a big play against this defense. Williams is also an asset in the passing game, giving him a slight bump in PPR leagues. Williams should be fine as a Flex option this week given the copious amount of players looking questionable either because of injury or COVID.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Mecole Hardman (Sit), Byron Pringle/Demarcus Robinson (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
The recent dominance by the Kansas City defense has allowed Mahomes to throw less which has resulted in two low-volume games for Tyreek Hill over the last two weeks. Hill has seen just nine targets in Kansas City’s last two victories and has been mostly quiet with just six receptions for 98 yards. This game is projected to be a tightly contested affair with plenty of points so I doubt we’ll see another game of sub-30 attempts. More passing equals more opportunities for Hill to show off the game-breaking ability that made him one of the top WRs in fantasy drafts this year. Expect a more typical game from Hill and start him as your WR1 with confidence.
When you look at the target share among the Kansas City WRs, it’s mind-boggling how far and away Hill is from everybody else. Mecole Hardman is second in targets at WR with 62 – 69 fewer than Hill. No other WR has more than 37 (Byron Pringle). It’s almost a fantasy wasteland behind Hill and trusting anybody else at that position from Kansas City is just praying for a TD to salvage the day. If you’re in the fantasy playoffs or fighting to get there, don’t pin your hopes on Hardman, Pringle, or Demarcus Robinson as they simply don’t see enough targets to provide the floor we need even at a Flex position.
If you’ve been playing fantasy football for any length of time, you know how valuable Travis Kelce is at the TE position. He regularly resides at the top of the TE pile and has scored as many points as some of the top-tier WRs in recent seasons. Kelce is once again in the top-12 in receptions this season with 75 although his yardage and TD totals are down slightly from previous seasons. Still, if Kelce is on the field he’s in your lineup. It really is as simple as that. Start him this week and enjoy the rewards.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
It wasn’t long ago when NFL teams were looking for the next Mahomes but he might be old news with the way Justin Herbert is playing. Herbert is the first QB in NFL history with 30+ TD passes in each of his first two seasons and he doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Herbert’s eye-popping numbers are supported by an HC who has shown he’s willing to take risks and allow his young QB to take them as well. Herbert led the Chargers to victory over the Chiefs back in Week 3 behind a 281-yard, four-TD performance and could match or exceed those numbers again this week. Kansas City’s defense has shown marked improvement since that first game but I think Herbert lands safely inside the QB1 tier again this week and is a solid start.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Justin Jackson (Sit)
I’d be hard-pressed to come up with an RB more valuable to his team than Austin Ekeler is to the Chargers. Ekeler is featured in the running game and is a trusted receiver as well, trailing only Najee Harris in receptions at the position (60 to 58). Ekeler has also become a threat near the goal line as he has nine rushing TDs on the season to go with his seven through the air. Ekeler is a complete RB and gets to face a defense that he gained more than 100 yards against with a receiving TD back in Week 3. Look for Ekeler to continue his incredible season and finish as an RB1 once again in Week 15.
Justin Jackson has seen more action over the last two games than he’s seen all season but that wasn’t a very high bar to cross. Jackson has 18 touches over the last two weeks that accounted for 63 yards. He’s not a bad RB but he’s not going to see enough action while Ekeler is healthy to help any fantasy squads out there. He has more value as a handcuff to Ekeler than a stand-alone player and should not be started this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Mike Williams (Start, WR2), Jaylen Guyton (Sit), Jared Cook (Sit)
Early on in his career, Keenan Allen was looked at as an incredibly talented WR who could put up fantasy points in bunches but simply couldn’t stay healthy. Well, Allen has changed that narrative as he’s missed just two games in the past four seasons and has been a Pro Bowl player in each. This season, Allen is having one of his best years to date and has a chance of setting personal bests in receptions, receiving yards, and TDs. Allen is once again leading the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and has earned the trust of Herbert implicitly. In a game that is projected to be high-scoring and close throughout, I see no reason why Allen can’t once again finish as a WR1 this week. Start him.
Through five games this season the only player you likely would have traded Mike Williams for was Cooper Kupp. Williams exploded out of the gate this season and seemingly scored on a long TD every week but then the wheels fell off a bit. Williams struggled mightily during the middle portion of the season, though it seems like injury may have played a part. Williams has had just one mediocre game over his past four and seems to be regaining some of the looks he was getting earlier in the season. Kansas City was victimized by Williams in Week 3 for seven receptions, 122 yards, and two TDs and while I don’t know if he’ll have that good of a game again, Williams certainly belongs in the WR2 conversation this week and we’ve seen his upside. Start him again this week.
Jalen Guyton has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks and has finished with some nice numbers, but those numbers were buoyed by a long TD reception that simply can’t be counted on as a fantasy manager. Guyton has yet to see more than five targets in a game and, as I mentioned, the only reason we’re talking about him this week is that he’s had two big plays over the last two weeks. If you feel confident he’ll get a third this week, by all means, go with your gut, but mine is telling me lightning won’t strike thrice and I’d bench him this week.
Jared Cook is an athletic specimen that has shown he can catch and run with the best of them. Unfortunately for Cook, he’s the fourth option in this passing game which severely limits his upside. Cook has a few good games this year but it’s hard to predict when the next one is coming. In the fantasy playoffs, we need a bit more security from the TE position than Cook provides so I recommend looking elsewhere for TE help in Week 15.