Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 26th at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Betting Odds: DEN +1, 42.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Drew Lock (Sit, QB2)
It’s a shame that Teddy Bridgewater left the game with a concussion. The Broncos now turn to Drew Lock to lead the team. Lock was the starter in 2020 and threw for 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He had a decent preseason but couldn’t beat out Bridgewater for the starting job. The Raiders are a bottom third pass defense but even with only 7 passing attempts in week 15 Lock managed to throw an interception. The team is just run-heavy right now and with the playoffs still in the picture, they aren’t going to risk putting the game into Lock’s hands. There is no way anyone is starting him this week. Not with your fantasy playoffs on the line. Even with an upside-down week 15 where backup quarterbacks filled the tops of the QB rankings, you don’t want Lock anywhere near your lineup.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Start, RB3), Javonte Williams (Start, RB2)
The Broncos continue to split the backfield work between Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, despite Williams having a massive day when Gordon was out in week 13. We do see Williams getting more snaps now playing on 59% of the team’s week 15 snaps compared to Gordon’s 41%. Both running back got 15 carries but Williams got 4 targets compared to Gordon’s 1. The Raiders have a horrible rush defense so both should get plenty of opportunities and make good on those opportunities. Gordon still leads in the touchdown mark despite neither scoring in week 15. This game does not project to be a high-scoring affair but both rushers will be good for fantasy.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Sit), Cortland Sutton (Start, Flex), Tim Patrick (Sit, Flex), Noah Fant (Sit), Albert Okwuegbunam (Sit)
The passing game in Denver has been bad for a while. With Lock taking over it creates even less clarity for who to start if anyone. I’m willing to roll out Cortland Sutton as a flex this week. He saw the most targets from Lock in week 15 with 4. Tim Patrick caught the touchdown on his 4th target but he seems less likely to repeat. Jerry Jeudy only got 3 targets which match Noah Fant. There is a college connection between Lock and Albert Okwuegbunam. He ended up with 2 targets compared to Fant’s 3 so he’s an interesting option but I’m not banking on that. The team as a whole is just not great outside of the running backs.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Sit, QB2)
I can’t see me starting Derek Carr against a top 5 pass defense. The Broncos haven’t been giving up points to the quarterbacks and have been hawking interceptions all year. They recently held Justin Herbert to 2 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. Derek Carr is no Herbert. Carr hasn’t been horrible on the year but he lacks the touchdown upside of other quarterbacks. He has yet to throw over 2 touchdowns in a game this season and doesn’t have any real rushing upside either. He will struggle to get opportunities against the Broncos who are a run-first team that eats up the clock. You cant win fantasy matchups with Carr in your lineup.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB2), Peyto Barber (Sit)
Josh Jacobs has been kind of a letdown this season but still been serviceable for fantasy. He hasn’t scored a ton of touchdowns, only 7 on the season but he has been involved in the passing game which has given him a bump in fantasy. With Kenyan Drake on the IR, I don’t see Peyton Barber eating too much into his workload so you can still count on Jacobs for a consistent floor with touchdown upside. He has only scored under 10 points twice this season but hasn’t scored over 20 points except for week 13 against Washington. In what projects to be a low-scoring game Jacobs should get plenty of work to give you fantasy production.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Hunter Renfrow (Start, WR2), Zay Jones (Sit, Flex) Bryan Edwards (Sit, Flex), DeSean Jackson (Sit, Flex), Darren Waller/Foster Moreau (Start)
The Raiders passing game is really built on one player getting massive volume and then a few deep shots down the field. For most of the season, the player getting that volume has been Hunter Renfrow. The small, quick, and skilled route runner has been a miss-match for defenses. He has benefited from strong tight-end play from Darren Waller and Foster Moreau. Whichever tight end is starting is a good fantasy start as they will see a huge bulk of the passing attempts and have the size to mismatch with linebackers who usually cover them. The outside receivers for Vegas have been a letdown this year. Bryan Edwards only has 4 games with double-digit fantasy points and has only seen over 5 targets once. Zay Jones was the man getting the workload in week 15. He racked up a season-high 9 targets. DeSean Jackson seemed to be a non-factor seeing his snap percent drop to 29%. The real question is Renfrow. Will he go back to his dominant role receiving the volume that will make him fantasy-relevant? He has only seen under 6 targets 3 times this season, once just happened to be last week which hurt people in the fantasy playoffs. I’m expecting much of the same this week. One of the other times he was held to under six was in week 6 against the Broncos. He has done well in the second game against the Broncos in previous years but with the game looking to be low scoring, there isn’t much passing volume to go around. I do think he could find his way into the endzone which will get him into the WR2 numbers but without that, he is looking like a high-end wr3.
-Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit, theDunit13 on Twitter)